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朝鮮核武器：技術(shù)問題North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues

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更新時(shí)間：2021-09-25
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這份報(bào)告總結(jié)了從公開來源了解的關(guān)于朝鮮核問題的情況。武器計(jì)劃-包括武器用裂變材料和彈頭估計(jì)-以及評估實(shí)現(xiàn)無核化的當(dāng)前發(fā)展。很少詳細(xì)的開源有關(guān)朝鮮核武器生產(chǎn)能力、彈頭的信息可以獲得鈾濃縮項(xiàng)目的復(fù)雜程度、范圍和成功程度增殖活性。據(jù)估計(jì)，朝鮮的總重量在30至50公斤之間。分離钚，足夠制造至少六枚核武器。而朝鮮武器計(jì)劃從一開始就以钚為基礎(chǔ)，在過去十年里出現(xiàn)并指出使用高濃縮鈾制造炸彈的第二條路線。北韓 2009年，中國公開承認(rèn)了一項(xiàng)鈾濃縮計(jì)劃，但曾表示，其目標(biāo)是生產(chǎn)用于核能的燃料。2010年11月，朝鮮展示了訪問美國的情景。 100MWT輕水反應(yīng)堆和新建氣體離心機(jī)的早期建造鈾濃縮工廠，都在寧邊工地。朝鮮人要求進(jìn)行濃縮。工廠已投入運(yùn)行，但尚未得到獨(dú)立確認(rèn)。美國官員說，很可能還有其他的秘密濃縮設(shè)施。2012年2月的公告承諾朝鮮暫停核試驗(yàn)、遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈試驗(yàn)以及鈾試驗(yàn) 國際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)監(jiān)測下的寧邊濃縮暫停

This report summarizes what is known from open sources about the North Korean nuclear weapons program—including weapons-usable fissile material and warhead estimates—and assesses current developments in achieving denuclearization. Little detailed open-source information is available about the DPRK’s nuclear weapons production capabilities, warhead sophistication, the scope and success of its uranium enrichment program, or extent of its proliferation activities. In total, it is estimated that North Korea has between 30 and 50 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons. While North Korea’s weapons program has been plutonium-based from the start, in the past decade, intelligence emerged pointing to a second route to a bomb using highly enriched uranium. North Korea openly acknowledged a uranium enrichment program in 2009, but has said its purpose is the production of fuel for nuclear power. In November 2010, North Korea showed visiting American experts early construction of a 100 MWT light-water reactor and a newly built gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant, both at the Yongbyon site. The North Koreans claimed the enrichment plant was operational, but this has not been independently confirmed. U.S. officials have said that it is likely other, clandestine enrichment facilities exist. A February 2012 announcement commits North Korea to moratoria on nuclear and long-range missile testing as well as uranium enrichment suspension at Yongbyon under IAEA monitoring

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