加拿大能源系統(tǒng)未開(kāi)發(fā)的節(jié)能潛力巨大。當(dāng)前政策，結(jié)合額外的經(jīng)濟(jì)和技術(shù)上可行的能源效率投資和措施，最終平均每年可節(jié)省1.9%的能源到2050年。加拿大的能源需求正在增長(zhǎng)加拿大是世界上能源最密集的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一，因?yàn)樗拿娣e大，溫度低氣候、生活水平高，能源產(chǎn)業(yè)不斷擴(kuò)大。能源需求增長(zhǎng)過(guò)去15年平均每年增長(zhǎng)0.8%，預(yù)計(jì)這一增長(zhǎng)速度將繼續(xù)下去在當(dāng)前策略場(chǎng)景下，假定沒(méi)有新策略或策略更改已經(jīng)頒布了。在這種情況下，一次能源總需求（不包括化石燃料統(tǒng)計(jì)差異）從2016年的2.92億噸石油當(dāng)量（Mtoe）增長(zhǎng)到2050的364個(gè)腳趾和來(lái)自化石燃料燃燒的二氧化碳（CO）排放相似彈道。用于化石燃料開(kāi)采和電力部門(mén)的天然氣是主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力能源需求和最終能源需求預(yù)計(jì)將在所有最終用途部門(mén)適度增長(zhǎng)除了運(yùn)輸。如果沒(méi)有執(zhí)行最低能源性能標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的政策已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了節(jié)能（MEPS）和建筑物標(biāo)簽方案；自愿方案和其他贈(zèng)款工業(yè)部門(mén)的激勵(lì)措施；以及運(yùn)輸業(yè)的燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。綜合來(lái)看，在現(xiàn)行政策下，石油和天然氣燃料占總節(jié)量的近70%情景：石油節(jié)約特別影響運(yùn)輸，而天然氣節(jié)約則均勻地分布在其他經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)。能源效率最大化導(dǎo)致長(zhǎng)期能源需求下降能源效率案例挖掘了所有行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)上可行的效率潛力納入泛加拿大清潔增長(zhǎng)框架的碳定價(jià)安排以及氣候變化。這種替代方案中的能源效率措施有可能到2050年，一次能源和最終能源需求都將保持在穩(wěn)步下降的軌道上，盡管增加經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。確定的潛在節(jié)約可能通過(guò)以下方式減少能源需求：到2050年，比目前的政策情景低約1億噸油當(dāng)量——超過(guò)總量的三分之一2016年一次能源需求（TPED）。最大的節(jié)能是建筑（28%），其次是運(yùn)輸（25%）、油氣開(kāi)采（21%）和工業(yè)（12%）。電力部門(mén)相比之下，進(jìn)一步提高能效的潛力更為有限。建筑業(yè)在提高能源效率方面潛力最大提高能源效率的政策措施可以降低住宅的能源需求到2050年，服務(wù)建筑將超過(guò)1400萬(wàn)噸油當(dāng)量。空間供暖的影響最大，在能源效率情況下，占累計(jì)節(jié)省5億噸油氣的70%以上與當(dāng)前策略方案相比?！皟袅隳芰烤途w”（NZER）建筑規(guī)范新的建筑，以及更嚴(yán)格的現(xiàn)有法規(guī)，是節(jié)能高效空間加熱的主要催化劑：改進(jìn)建筑圍護(hù)結(jié)構(gòu)并轉(zhuǎn)換為電熱泵。到2050年，加拿大新建住宅建筑的空間采暖能耗強(qiáng)度降低85%。提高能源效率將對(duì)居民的天然氣需求產(chǎn)生最大的影響同時(shí)也減少了服務(wù)業(yè)的石油消費(fèi)。電力需求下降將是部分原因然而，隨著電力在建筑部門(mén)能源中所占份額的增加，電力供應(yīng)的增加抵消了這一影響在能源效率的情況下，需求在2050年上升到66%。

The Canadian energy system’s untapped energy efficiency savings potential is great. Current  policies, combined with additional economically and technically feasible energy efficiency  investments and measures, could deliver final energy savings of 1.9% per year on average through 2050.  Canada’s energy needs are growing  Canada is one of the world’s most energy-intensive economies owing to its large size, cold  climate, high standard of living and expanding energy industry. Energy demand has grown at  0.8% per year on average for the past 15 years, and this rate of growth is projected to continue under the Current Policies Scenario, which assumes no new policies or changes to policies  already enacted. Under this scenario, total primary energy demand (excluding fossil fuel  statistical differences) grows from 292 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2016 to  364 Mtoe in 2050 and carbon dioxide (CO?) emissions from fossil fuel combustion follow a similar trajectory. Gas used in fossil fuel extraction and in the power sector is the main driver of primary  energy demand, and final energy demand is expected to grow moderately in all end-use sectors  except transport. Growth in the Current Policies Scenario would have been higher without the  energy savings already achieved by policies enforcing minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and labelling programmes in buildings; voluntary programmes and other grants and  incentives in the industry sector; and fuel economy standards in transport. Taken together, oiland gas-based fuels account for almost 70% of total energy saved under the Current Policies  Scenario: oil savings affect transport specifically, while gas savings are spread evenly across the  other sectors of the economy. Maximising energy efficiency leads to declining long-term energy demand The Energy Efficiency Case taps into economically viable efficiency potentials in all sectors and  incorporates the carbon pricing arrangement of the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth  and Climate Change. Energy efficiency measures in this alternative scenario have the potential to  keep both primary and final energy demand on a steadily declining trajectory to 2050, despite  increasing economic activity. The potential savings identified could reduce energy demand by  around 100 Mtoe below the Current Policies Scenario by 2050 – more than one-third of total  primary energy demand (TPED) in 2016. The greatest energy savings would be in buildings (28%),  followed by transport (25%), oil and gas extraction (21%) and industry (12%). The power sector’s potential for additional energy efficiency improvements are more limited in comparison.  Buildings sector has greatest potential for energy efficiency gains Policies and measures to maximise energy efficiency could reduce energy demand of residential  and services buildings by over 14 Mtoe in 2050. Space heating has the greatest impact,  accounting for over 70% of the cumulative savings of 500 Mtoe in the Energy Efficiency Case  compared with the Current Policies Scenario. “Net-zero energy ready” (NZER) building codes for  new buildings, and more stringent codes for existing ones, are the primary catalysts for energyefficient space heating: improving building envelopes and switching to electric heat pumps would  cut the space heating energy intensity of new residential buildings in Canada by 85% by 2050.  Enhanced energy efficiency would have the greatest effect on residential gas demand, and would  also cut oil consumption in the services sector. Falling electricity demand would be partially  offset by increasing electrification, however, as the share of electricity in buildings sector energy  demand rises to 66% in 2050 in the Energy Efficiency Case.