首頁 > 資料下載 > 六個月后：評估伊朗核協(xié)議的執(zhí)行情況SIX MONTHS LATER: ASSESSING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

六個月后：評估伊朗核協(xié)議的執(zhí)行情況SIX MONTHS LATER: ASSESSING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

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更新時間：2021-09-19
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伊朗核協(xié)議仍然存在爭議，主要是因為圍繞它是否向各方提供了承諾的利益的問題揮之不去，其次是因為對它在華盛頓和德黑蘭是如何談判和宣傳的仍有不滿。盡管如此，它已經(jīng)取得了很大成就，延長了伊朗將其核計劃轉(zhuǎn)向生產(chǎn)核武器材料所需的時間表；建立了機(jī)制，通過這些機(jī)制，世界將在今后20至25年內(nèi)對核計劃有更大的透明度；并解除了對伊朗大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的制裁。盡管核武器的實施基本上是按計劃進(jìn)行的，但制裁的解除卻不能這樣說。盡管在法律上，五常加一和聯(lián)合國安理會在該協(xié)議下所需做的一切都已經(jīng)完成，但制裁減免的實際執(zhí)行卻一直在停止。造成這種局面的原因是多方面的，但大體上有三個方面：低油價；伊朗自身的內(nèi)部監(jiān)管和官僚問題；以及美國對伊朗及其銀行的金融制裁的殘余影響。并非所有這些問題都與《聯(lián)合能力行動綱領(lǐng)》的執(zhí)行直接相關(guān)，但對這些問題的關(guān)注不足將損害該協(xié)議，就像它們是該協(xié)議的核心條款一樣。關(guān)于低油價問題，美國或其伙伴國在解決伊朗困難方面無能為力。然而，關(guān)于伊朗的內(nèi)部問題和制裁的殘余影響，伊朗和美國可以做更多的工作。

The Iran nuclear deal remains controversial, primarily because of lingering questions around whether it is delivering the benefits promised to all sides and, secondarily, because of residual complaints about how it was negotiated and advertised in Washington and in Tehran. Despite this, it has already achieved much, having lengthened the timetable that would be required for Iran to turn its nuclear program toward the production of material for nuclear weapons; established the mechanisms through which the world would have greater transparency into the nuclear program for the next twenty to twenty-five years; and relieved sanctions on most of Iran’s economic activity. Though nuclear implementation has gone largely according to plan, the same cannot be said of sanctions relief. Though legally everything the P5+1 and UNSC are required to do under the deal has taken place, practical fulfillment of the sanctions relief has been halting. There are various reasons for this, but they lie in three general areas: low oil prices; Iran’s own internal regulatory and bureaucratic problems; and residual effects from the remaining US financial sanctions against Iran and its banks. Not all of these issues are tied directly to the implementation of the JCPOA, but inadequate attention to these issues will undermine the deal just as surely as if they were a core provision of the agreement. With respect to low oil prices, there is little that the United States or its partners can do that would address Iran’s difficulties. However, with respect to Iran’s internal problems and the residual effects of sanctions, more can be done in Iran and in the United States.

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