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新能源地緣政治the new geopolitics of energy

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更新時(shí)間：2021-09-19
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能源和地緣政治一直緊密相連。20世紀(jì)，能源資源的獲取成為決定戰(zhàn)爭勝負(fù)的一個(gè)主要因素，石油生產(chǎn)國聯(lián)合起來建立新的全球聯(lián)盟，價(jià)格波動(dòng)刺激或阻止超級(jí)大國的冒險(xiǎn)主義。21世紀(jì)能源領(lǐng)域的巨大而快速的變化正在改寫這兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域之間的關(guān)系。隨著新資源的提供和新的地緣政治工具和機(jī)會(huì)的出現(xiàn)，以及氣候問題成為全球議程的首要問題，為制定一個(gè)清晰的地圖，使決策者、工業(yè)界和公眾能夠駕馭能源和地緣政治之間的新問題所做的工作太少。這在美國尤其如此，因?yàn)槊绹谶^去十年中成為主要的碳?xì)浠衔锷a(chǎn)國和出口國，它發(fā)現(xiàn)自己擁有強(qiáng)大的新杠桿來推動(dòng)其全球議程。無論是通過干預(yù)能源市場還是其他方式，如何以及何時(shí)推進(jìn)這股力量，都將是一個(gè)棘手的問題，需要對(duì)困難而迅速變化的部分進(jìn)行分析。其中包括了解全球能源需求的變化、石油供應(yīng)的多樣化和新的中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、全球天然氣市場日益激烈的競爭及其與能源安全的關(guān)系、全球電力投資的激勵(lì)措施以及對(duì)氣候變化的影響，以及對(duì)能源獲取的渴望及其后果。管理這些問題將需要對(duì)新的人力資源進(jìn)行投資，類似于冷戰(zhàn)期間為避免核災(zāi)難而進(jìn)行的投資。

Energy and geopolitics have always been closely linked. The twentieth century saw access to energy resources become a major factor in determining the winners of wars, oil producers banding together to create new global alliances, and price swings that spurred or deterred the adventurism of superpowers. The vast and fast-paced changes in the energy sector in the twenty-first century are rewriting the relations between the two fields. As new resources are made available and create new geopolitical tools and opportunities, and as climate issues move to the fore of the global agenda, too little work has been done to create a clear map that enables policy makers, industry, and the public to navigate the new issues arising at the nexus of energy and geopolitics. This is especially true in the United States, which, due to its emergence over the past decade as a major hydrocarbons producer and exporter, has found itself with powerful new leverage to advance its agenda globally. How and when to advance this power, whether through intervening in energy markets or otherwise, will be a thorny issue that will require analysis across difficult and rapidly changing pieces. These include understanding the shifts in global energy demand, the diversification of oil supplies and new risks of disruption, the growing competition in global gas markets and its relation to energy security, the incentives for power investment globally and the implications for climate change, and the thirst for energy access and its consequences. Managing these issues will require investment in new human capacity, similar to the investment made during the Cold War to avoid nuclear disaster.

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