早期跡象表明，2006年的世界經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)有了堅實的基礎(chǔ)。制造業(yè)的增長尤其強勁，亞洲經(jīng)濟體的出口和產(chǎn)出實現(xiàn)了健康增長。在歐洲，包括德國和捷克共和國在內(nèi)的出口國今年也有一個良好的開端，盡管該地區(qū)的國內(nèi)需求仍然低迷。2006年美國經(jīng)濟的表現(xiàn)可能是不穩(wěn)定的。從2005年第四季度的糟糕反彈應該能確保第一季度的健康增長，但利率的提高和房地產(chǎn)市場的降溫似乎會使經(jīng)濟在春季出現(xiàn)適度增長。

預計2006年美國經(jīng)濟將增長3.2%。德國的商業(yè)信心正在明顯改善，2006年的經(jīng)濟增長預期已增至1.5%。對東歐出口經(jīng)濟體的預期也有所改善。日本2006年的預測從2.2%提高到2.6%，這是由于國內(nèi)需求的增長，而這一增長應得到個人收入持續(xù)增長的支持。這一升級是日本將2006年世界GDP增長預測提高到4.4%的主要原因。

歐洲和日本的經(jīng)濟增長預期并沒有被央行忽視。隨著全球經(jīng)濟反映出上世紀90年代末的產(chǎn)能利用水平，決策者們確信，審慎的風險管理迫使貨幣當局采取行動。收緊貨幣政策將成為2006年的一個主要主題，尤其是在日本。適應更加嚴格的金融條件將是今年世界經(jīng)濟面臨的諸多挑戰(zhàn)之一，其他挑戰(zhàn)包括：盡管美國經(jīng)濟增長放緩，貿(mào)易緊張局勢加劇，但仍需保持世界貿(mào)易的勢頭；努力減少主要經(jīng)濟體的財政赤字，以及高水平的股權(quán)和債務(wù)以及房地產(chǎn)市場給金融穩(wěn)定帶來的持續(xù)風險。

地緣政治方面的擔憂繼續(xù)對市場構(gòu)成壓力，但股市高位、特別是美國的大規(guī)模維護計劃以及原油流入亞洲的套利機會等一系列下行因素抵消了這一擔憂。因此，該籃子原油價格下跌1.92美元，跌幅超過3%，本月平均價格為56.36美元/桶。3月上半月，市場對供應的擔憂再度抬頭，不過，歐佩克（OPEC）決定維持產(chǎn)出不變，這一上升趨勢在一定程度上削弱了這種擔憂。因此，3月16日，日籃子價格達到57.45美元/桶。

美國的煉油廠維修、東北部的正常冬季以及歐洲的持續(xù)寒流導致西半球的煉油利潤率上升。亞洲的情況相對不同，因為每桶原油的良好表現(xiàn)，特別是在本月下旬，未能超過迪拜基準原油的平均月成本，導致2月份煉油廠利潤率比上月下降0.16美元/桶。展望未來，美國和亞洲未來幾個月的重型柴油機維護計劃，以及對汽油和柴油的較高季節(jié)性需求，加上強勁的經(jīng)濟增長，應能支撐產(chǎn)品價格和煉油廠利潤率。這種看漲情緒反映在最近美國和歐洲產(chǎn)品期貨市場的上漲。

由于季節(jié)性需求下降以及尼日利亞供應中斷，歐佩克2月份的現(xiàn)貨供應量大幅下降230萬桶/日，至1290萬桶/日，而航運量飆升180萬桶/日，至2570萬桶/日，部分原因是現(xiàn)貨供應量較上月有所增加。就油輪市場而言，超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪板塊的原油現(xiàn)貨運價依然堅挺，但到本月底大幅下跌。然而，從中東向東和西移動的超大型油輪的費率比一年前下降了10-15%。產(chǎn)品運價大幅走軟，尤其是中東/東線的運價下跌156點，至平均WS207，為2004年年中以來的最低水平。同樣地，在地中海盆地和從那里到西北歐的油輪的價格也下跌了110點左右，最終在WS300附近落戶。

有經(jīng)合組織國家以及許多發(fā)展中國家和中國2005年全年的初步數(shù)據(jù)，全球石油需求似乎已經(jīng)增長了近100萬桶/日或1.1%，達到平均8300萬桶/日。估計的增長略低于上一個數(shù)字，這一差異可以追溯到2005年最后一個季度對增長的向下修正。全球石油需求增長已被下調(diào)約0.1 Mb/d，以解釋一月和二月美國需求的持續(xù)性萎縮，以及經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織對亞洲經(jīng)濟增長的悲觀看法。因此，世界石油需求預計將增長150萬桶/日或1.8%，達到平均8450萬桶/日，高于去年的100萬桶/日，但僅為2004年異常增長的一半。

2005年非歐佩克石油供應量估計為5010萬桶/日，比2004年增加了20萬桶/日，與上月持平。2006年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應量預計為5150萬桶/日，比2005年增加140萬桶/日，略低于上一次評估。歷史修訂、近期表現(xiàn)、非計劃停工以及對墨西哥、挪威、澳大利亞、巴西、埃及、蘇丹的前景的輕微調(diào)整的影響，導致了每季的一些修訂，并將70000 B/D向下調(diào)整為全年增長預測。二級消息來源顯示，2月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為2970萬桶/日，較上月增加16萬桶/日。

2月份，經(jīng)合組織原油凈進口量保持在2430萬桶/日的水平，美國進口量增加約40萬桶/日，平均為1000萬桶/日，日本進口量減少約20萬桶/日，降至400萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織原油凈進口量增加62，000桶/日至近3百萬桶/日，日本進口量增加0.2百萬桶/日，美國進口量下降幾乎相同。中國原油凈進口量猛增70萬桶/日，漲幅28%，超過300萬桶/日；成品油凈進口量下降17萬桶/日，至50萬桶/日。

Early indications suggest that the world economy has begun 2006 on a solid footing. Growth in the manufacturing sectorhas been particularly strong and economies in Asia achieved healthy increases in exports and output. In Europe, exportersincluding Germany and the Czech Republic also had a good start to the year although domestic demand in the regionremains depressed. The performance of the US economy in 2006 may be volatile. The rebound from the poor fourth quarterof 2005 should ensure healthy growth in the first quarter but higher interest rates and a cooling housing market seem set tomoderate growth into the spring.

  The US economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2006. Germany is experiencing a clear improvement in businesssentiment and the growth forecast for 2006 has been increased to 1.5%. Expectations for the exporting economies ofEastern Europe have also improved. The 2006 forecast for Japan has been raised to 2.6% from 2.2% as a result ofstrengthening domestic demand which should be supported by continued growth in personal incomes. This upgrade forJapan is the main reason that the forecast for world GDP growth in 2006 has been raised to 4.4%. 

Expectations of higher growth in Europe and Japan have not gone unnoticed by central banks. As the global economyreaches levels of capacity utilization last seen in the late 1990s, policymakers are convinced that prudent risk managementobliges monetary authorities to act. Tighter monetary policies are set to be a major theme for 2006, not least in Japan. Theadjustment to more restrictive financial conditions will be one of many challenges facing the world economy this year.Other challenges include the need to maintain the momentum of world trade despite slower US growth and rising tradetensions, the struggle to reduce the fiscal deficits of the major economies, and the ongoing risks to financial stability posedby the high levels of equity and debt as well as the housing markets. 

Geopolitical concerns continued to pressure the market, but were outweighed by a host of downward factors such as highstock levels, a heavy maintenance schedule particularly in the USA and arbitrage opportunities for crude flows into Asia.As a result, the Basket fell $1.92 or over 3% to average $56.36/b for the month. The first half of March saw a revival ofsupply fears, although the upward trend was somewhat undercut by the OPEC decision to keep output unchanged. As aresult, the daily Basket price reached $57.45/b on 16 March. 

Refinery maintenance in the USA, normal winter in the Northeast and a continued cold snap in Europe resulted in a rise inrefinery margins in the Western Hemisphere. The situation in Asia was relatively different as the good performance of thebarrel complex, particularly in the latter part of the month, failed to outpace the average monthly cost of Dubai benchmarkcrude, resulting in a $0.16/b decline in refinery margins in February over the previous month. Looking ahead, the heavyrefinery maintenance schedule in the USA and Asia over the next few months, along with higher seasonal demand forgasoline and diesel, in tandem with robust economic growth, should support product prices and refinery margins. Thisbullish sentiment has been reflected in recent rise in the product futures markets in the USA and Europe. 

OPEC spot fixtures declined a significant 2.3 mb/d to 12.9 mb/d in February due to lower seasonal demand as well asdisruptions in Nigerian supply, while sailings soared by 1.8 mb/d to 25.7 mb/d due partly to the high number of spot fixturesfrom the previous month. For the tanker market, crude oil spot freight rates for the VLCC and Suezmax sectors remainedstrong but fell sharply by the end of the month. However, rates for VLCCs moving from the Middle East to the East and theWest were 10-15% lower than a year earlier. Product freight rates weakened considerably, especially on the Middle East/Eastroute where they lost 156 points to average WS207, their lowest level since mid-2004. Similarly, rates for tankers tradingacross the Mediterranean basin and from there to North-West Europe lost around 110 points to settle around WS300. 

With preliminary data for OECD countries as well as many Developing Countries and China available for the entire 2005,global oil demand appears to have grown by almost 1 mb/d or 1.1 % to average 83.0 mb/d. The estimated growth is slightlylower than the previous figure and the difference can be traced back to a downward revision to growth in the last quarter of2005. Global oil demand growth for the present year has been revised down by approximately 0.1 mb/d to account for apersistent y-o-y contraction in US demand during January and February as well as a more pessimistic view of growth innon-OECD Asia. Thus, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.5 mb/d or 1.8 % to average 84.5 mb/d, higher than lastyear’s 1 mb/d but only half the exceptional growth seen in 2004. 

Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is estimated at 50.1 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.2 mb/d over 2004 and unchanged fromlast month. In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.5 mb/d, an increase of 1.4 mb/d over 2005, slightlylower that the last assessment. The impact of historical revisions, recent performance, unplanned shutdowns as well asminor adjustments to the outlook for Mexico, Norway, Australia, Brazil, Egypt, Sudan have resulted in some revisions on aquarterly basis, and a downward adjustment of 70,000 b/d to the full-year growth forecast. In February, total OPEC crudeoil production averaged 29.7 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 160,000 b/d from last month. 

OECD net crude oil imports remained almost stable at 24.3 mb/d in February with US imports increasing by around0.4 mb/d to average 10.0 mb/d and Japanese imports declining by around 0.2 mb/d to 4.0 mb/d. OECD net product importsincreased by 62,000 b/d to nearly 3 mb/d with Japanese imports increasing by 0.2 mb/d and US imports dropping by almostthe same level. China’s net crude oil imports surged 0.7 mb/d or 28% to more than 3 mb/d, while product net imports fellby 170,000 b/d to 0.5 mb/d.