據(jù)預(yù)測，2003年世界GDP將增長3.2%，與上個(gè)月的預(yù)測持平?？紤]到美國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測略有增長，加上印度人口減少，歐洲經(jīng)合組織的預(yù)測也沒有改變。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)前景繼續(xù)受益于消費(fèi)支出的強(qiáng)勁增長，盡管日本的前景因擔(dān)心資本支出步伐可能放緩和日元升值會(huì)削弱出口增長而變得黯淡。隨著大多數(shù)亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體的前景繼續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)，亞太地區(qū)的預(yù)期略有上調(diào)。否則，發(fā)展中國家作為一個(gè)整體的預(yù)測不變，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計(jì)將增長3.5%。歐盟成員國對(duì)2003年的預(yù)測平均下降了0.2%，而對(duì)波蘭等前社會(huì)主義國家快速增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)體的預(yù)測則有所提高。北美和歐洲預(yù)計(jì)將在2004年實(shí)現(xiàn)更高的增長率，但日本的表現(xiàn)可能因國內(nèi)需求持續(xù)低迷而受到影響。盡管該地區(qū)許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體的表現(xiàn)持續(xù)不佳，但歐洲2004年的預(yù)測不變。這反映了最近穩(wěn)定的跡象，并提高了人們的期望，特別是在德國。亞太地區(qū)、拉丁美洲和非洲的增長率應(yīng)該從經(jīng)合組織2.8%的高增長中獲益，而2004年世界國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長率預(yù)計(jì)將升至4.0%。在與中國和美國有聯(lián)系的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，2004年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的改善將最為顯著。由于2003年下半年強(qiáng)勁的增長勢頭推動(dòng)了出口活動(dòng)，北美和拉丁美洲應(yīng)該看到顯著的加速。歐洲2004年的前景取決于國內(nèi)復(fù)蘇，因?yàn)楦甙旱某杀竞筒粩嗌档呢泿趴赡軙?huì)限制出口。七國集團(tuán)（G7）宣布后，日本也可能在2004年艱難地實(shí)現(xiàn)出口增長，盡管中國的持續(xù)擴(kuò)張以及與美國的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系應(yīng)該會(huì)支持亞洲的增長。不包括日本、中國和韓國在內(nèi)的其他亞洲國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率應(yīng)該達(dá)到5.2%，很容易成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率最高的地區(qū)。今年4月開始的5個(gè)月復(fù)蘇，8月參考籃子價(jià)格跌至28.63美元/桶，9月突然停止，籃子價(jià)格暴跌2.31美元/桶，或8.07%，至26.32美元/桶。令人敬畏的是，籃子在9月大部分時(shí)間內(nèi)繼續(xù)自由下跌，直到本月底才回升。在截至10月9日的一周內(nèi)，這一籃子貨幣的價(jià)格穩(wěn)步上漲1.41美元/桶，隨后在10月16日飆升至29.74美元/桶，遠(yuǎn)高于價(jià)格區(qū)間機(jī)制的上限。由于原油價(jià)格大幅下跌，9月份的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格普遍走低。美國汽油需求的季節(jié)性大幅下降進(jìn)一步壓低了地區(qū)價(jià)格，進(jìn)而波及其他市場，而所有三個(gè)市場的蒸餾油需求的溫和增長緩沖了汽油價(jià)格的下跌。結(jié)果，美國和歐洲煉油廠利潤率有所下降，但仍保持在上升趨勢。盡管如此，隨著秋季維護(hù)季節(jié)的開始，美國的煉油廠產(chǎn)量有所下降，但由于為即將到來的冬季準(zhǔn)備蒸餾油庫存的努力，歐洲和日本的煉油廠產(chǎn)量有所增加。歐佩克地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量反季節(jié)下降237萬桶/日，至917萬桶/日，較一年前下降35%。原油貨物運(yùn)價(jià)逆轉(zhuǎn)了上月的下降趨勢，顯示出大幅上漲，特別是在超大型油輪領(lǐng)域。例外情況是70000-100000載重噸和40000-70000載重噸貨物，在一些航線上出現(xiàn)了中度損失。產(chǎn)品運(yùn)價(jià)顯示了不同的方向，但總體上是疲軟的。中東/東部航線上運(yùn)載30 50000載重噸的中型油輪是唯一的例外，因?yàn)橛捎谙鄬?duì)健康的活動(dòng)，費(fèi)率上升了相當(dāng)大的40點(diǎn)，達(dá)到每月平均WS 210。除了一些小的調(diào)整外，2003年和2004年的世界石油需求估計(jì)和預(yù)測仍與上一次《世界石油報(bào)告》中的預(yù)測和預(yù)測基本相同。2003年的需求量和增量均呈上升趨勢，目前分別為78.18 mb/d和1.20 mb/d。2004年世界石油需求預(yù)測較之前的7933萬桶/日略有下降至7925萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克9月份的原油產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為2711萬桶/日。非歐佩克國家2003年的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)為4874萬桶/日，比2004年的4781萬桶/日多出0.93萬桶/日。2004年非經(jīng)營性供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到4997萬桶/日，比2003年的預(yù)測增加124萬桶/日。2002年和2003年的凈出口量估計(jì)分別為556mb/d和632mb/d，預(yù)計(jì)2004年將增至685mb/d。9月份，美國石油商業(yè)庫存增長了3200萬桶，達(dá)到96700萬桶，其中原油和成品油的增長起到了推波助瀾的作用。10月16日的最新一周數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)，原油庫存持續(xù)增加，餾分油庫存仍在正常范圍內(nèi)。16歐元區(qū)的石油庫存總量約為1800萬至10458萬桶，主要是由于原油庫存減少了1300萬桶。8月份，日本商業(yè)股延續(xù)了上漲趨勢，增加了160萬股，而克魯?shù)掠蛶齑鎰t減少了370萬股，仍比去年同期水平高出8%。

World GDP is forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2003, unchanged from last month’s estimate. The forecast for theOECD also remains unchanged, taking into account a slight increase in the US forecast balanced by a reduction inJapan’s. The US outlook continues to benefit from very strong growth in consumer spending , while the outlookfor Japan has dimmed on concern that the pace of capital spending may ease and the higher yen undermine exportgrowth. Estimates for Asia Pacific have been raised slightly as the outlook for most Asian economies continues toimprove. Otherwise, the forecast for developing countries as a group is unchanged with GDP expected to grow by3.5%. Estimates for EU members for 2003 have been reduced by 0.2% on average, while forecasts have beenincreased for the fast growing economies of former socialist countries such as Poland. North America and Europe are expected to achieve higher growth rates in 2004, but Japan’s performance may berestrained by continued low levels of domestic demand. The forecast for Europe in 2004 is unchanged despite thecontinuing poor performance of many of the region’s economies. This reflects recent signs of stabilization andimproving expectations, particularly in Germany. The growth rates of Asia Pacific, Latin America and Africa shouldbenefit from higher OECD growth at 2.8%, while the growth rate for World GDP is expected to rise to 4.0% in2004. Improved economic growth in 2004 will be most conspicuous in economies with links to China and the UnitedStates. North America and Latin America should see significant acceleration as momentum from the strong secondhalf of 2003 boosts export activity. The outlook for Europe in 2004 is dependent on domestic recovery as highcosts and an appreciating currency may restrict exports. Following the G7 announcement, Japan may also struggleto grow exports in 2004, although continued expansion in China and trade links to the US should support Asiangrowth. Other Asia — which excludes Japan, China and Kor ea — should see a growth rate of 5.2%, easily thehighest of all the global regions. The five-month recovery, which began in April this year and took the price of the Reference Basket to$ 28.63/b in August, came to an abrupt halt in September as the Basket plunged $2.31/b or 8.07% to $26.32/b. On aweekly count, the Basket went on a free fall during most of September, pulling up only towards the end of themonth. In the week ending 9 October, the Basket scored a solid rise of $1.41/b, before soaring to $29.74/b on 16October, well above the upper limit of the price band mechanism. Product prices in September were generally driven lower by considerable falls in crude prices. The sharpseasonal decline in US gasoline demand further depressed regional prices, which, in turn, extended to othermarkets, while modest growth in distillate demand in all three markets cushioned the fall of the gasoil price. Asresult, refinery margins retreated in the USA and Europe yet still remained in positive territory. Nonetheless, withthe start of the autumn maintenance season, refinery throughput decreased in the USA but increased in Europeand Japan on efforts to prepare distillate stockpiles for the impending winter season. OPEC area spot fixtures showed a contra-seasonal decline of 2.37 mb/d to stand at 9.17 mb/d, a drop of 35%from the level observed a year ago. Freight rates for crude oil cargoes reversed last month’s downward trend,showing considerable increases, especially in the VLCC sector. The exception was 70,000-100,000 DWT and40,000-70,000 DWT cargoes, which witnessed moderate losses on some routes. Product freight rates showedmixed directions but were generally soft. Medium-range tankers carrying 30 50,000 DWT along the MiddleEast/East route were the sole exception as rates rose a considerable 40 points to a monthly average of WS 210 dueto relatively healthy activity. Except for some minor adjustments, world oil demand estimates and forecasts for 2003 and 2004 remain much thesame as those presented in the previous MOMR. Both the demand volume and increment for 2003 have beenadjusted upwards and now stand at 78.18 mb/d and 1.20 mb/d respectively. The world demand forecast for 2004has been revised down slightly to 79.25 mb/d compared to a previous 79.33 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in September, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 27.11 mb/d. Non-OPEC oilsupply for 2003 is forecast at 48.74 mb/d, which is 0.93 mb/d more than the 47.81 mb/d estimated for 2004. NonOPECsupply in 2004 is expected to reach 49.97 mb/d, an increase of 1.24 mb/d over the 2003 forecast. Net FSUexports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.32 mb/d respectively, and expected to rise to 6.85 mb/din 2004. US oil commercial stocks rose a considerable 32.0 mb to stand at 967.0 mb in September, with crude oil andproducts contributing to the increase. The most recent weekly data from 16 October confirms that crude oilstocks experienced a continued build and distillate inventories remain within the normal range. Total oil stocksin the Eur-16 registered a contra -seasonal build of around 18 mb to 1,045.8 mb, mainly on a 13 mb decrease in crudeoil stocks. Japan’s commercial stocks continued their upward trend in August, increasing by 1.6 mb, while crudeoil inventories registered a draw of 3.7 mb, which was still 8% above the year-ago level.