卡特里娜颶風對世界經(jīng)濟的影響將通過美國經(jīng)濟活動的減少和全球石油產(chǎn)品價格的上漲來體現(xiàn)。2005年對美國經(jīng)濟增長率的直接影響預(yù)計將減少約0.2%，盡管明年將有大量的重建支出，這將促進東南部的增長。美國2005年GDP增長預(yù)測已降至3.4%。盡管重建支出增加，但由于利率和通脹對房地產(chǎn)市場和消費者支出的影響，預(yù)計2006年美國經(jīng)濟增長率將下降3%。在卡特里娜颶風之前，高油價似乎已經(jīng)開始影響一些亞洲經(jīng)濟體。那些補貼燃油價格的國家面臨著不斷上升的財政赤字，一些政府已經(jīng)宣布了削減補貼或提高零售價格的計劃，這將降低消費能力和亞太地區(qū)的增長預(yù)測。亞太地區(qū)的最新預(yù)測已降至2006年的3.9%。此外，這些國家還可能受到2006年美國和中國經(jīng)濟增長放緩的影響。第二季度數(shù)據(jù)證實，日本經(jīng)濟運行良好。據(jù)預(yù)測，日本在2005年的經(jīng)濟增長率為1.7%，這一預(yù)測可能會被修正。預(yù)計2006年將進一步穩(wěn)定增長1.7%。預(yù)計歐元區(qū)2005年將增長1.1%。盡管預(yù)測的1.5%的增長率仍低于趨勢，但預(yù)計2006年會有所改善。盡管自澳大利亞和加拿大等大宗商品生產(chǎn)國的預(yù)測有所增加以來，美國的調(diào)整有所下降，但2005年世界經(jīng)濟的估計增長率仍保持在4.1%不變。預(yù)計2006年世界經(jīng)濟增長率將下降3.9%，主要是由于發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟減速。8月份，歐佩克一籃子原油價格在經(jīng)歷了一系列200萬桶/日的煉油廠停產(chǎn)后的第一周上漲了5%。北海的一個石油生產(chǎn)設(shè)施意外關(guān)閉以及厄瓜多爾的罷工導(dǎo)致原油產(chǎn)量停止，進一步推動了價格上漲的趨勢。然而，颶風卡特麗娜則是通過破壞墨西哥灣煉油能力和上游生產(chǎn)量來達到最大水平的。8月份的月平均收盤價為57.82美元/桶，上漲4.69美元，漲幅近9%。盡管如此，國際能源機構(gòu)成員國的緊急反應(yīng)以及歐佩克對其承諾滿足任何供應(yīng)短缺的承諾幫助克服了對原油供應(yīng)短缺的擔憂。因此，油價從9月1日的最高水平61.37美元/桶下跌9%，至9月14日的56.28美元/桶。過去幾周，產(chǎn)品市場經(jīng)歷了兩個階段。在第一階段，大西洋盆地的汽油庫存一直很低，美國對汽油的需求也很高，而在亞洲，由于中國、臺灣和印度的出口減少，市場對中間餾分油的需求相對較低，對汽油的需求也較有希望，產(chǎn)品信心大幅上升，各種產(chǎn)品價格，特別是汽油價格大幅上漲。颶風的初步影響完全或部分影響了美國約3百萬桶/日的煉油能力。目前，約2百萬桶/日的煉油能力已恢復(fù)正常運行，其余的0.9百萬桶/日預(yù)計將離線數(shù)周，甚至數(shù)月。這種情況將進一步收緊煉油行業(yè)，該行業(yè)已經(jīng)遭受了產(chǎn)能短缺的困擾，并將在未來幾個月內(nèi)支撐原油和產(chǎn)品價格。歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨租船總量仍接近上個月的水平，為13.4百萬/天。中東的租船量下降了0.3百萬/天，相應(yīng)地，西行的租船量下降了約0.5百萬/天，東行的租船量增長了0.1百萬/天。歐佩克地區(qū)的租船量連續(xù)第二個月增加到2530百萬/天，其中中東占了25.3百萬/天總的增長。由于可用噸位過剩，油輪市場疲軟，除印度尼西亞/美國東海岸和地中海/西北歐航線外，大多數(shù)航線的運價下降。成品油船市場走勢喜憂參半，東部地區(qū)運價連續(xù)第二個月上漲，西部地區(qū)則大幅下滑。2005年世界石油總需求估計數(shù)較上個月的預(yù)測有所下降，以反映上半年的疲軟需求增長、運輸燃料的創(chuàng)紀錄泵送價格、負零售利潤以及補貼政策的變化。因此，2005年世界石油總需求預(yù)計將增長140萬桶/日或1.7%，達到平均8350萬桶/日。2006年，根據(jù)世界經(jīng)濟增長的健康率估計，石油需求預(yù)計將增長150萬桶/日或1.8%，達到年均8500萬桶/日。2005年非歐佩克國家的石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將達到平均5040萬桶/日，達到年均8500萬桶/日比上一年增加60萬桶/日，比上個月的數(shù)字下降了10萬桶/日。按季度計算，第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的產(chǎn)量分別減少了47 tb/d、257 tb/d和173 tb/d。2005年第三季度和第四季度的調(diào)整中，大部分是對美國產(chǎn)量的修正，但考慮到卡特里娜颶風后美國產(chǎn)量恢復(fù)的不確定性，這一預(yù)測可能在未來幾個月內(nèi)再次修正。2006，非歐佩克石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計平均51.5 Mb/d，比2005增加約1 Mb/d，而包括非常規(guī)油的OPEC NGLS預(yù)計將增加0.3Mb/d。8月份，歐佩克產(chǎn)量平均為30.2 Mb/d，保持上個月的高水平。2005年7月底，經(jīng)合組織的股票繼續(xù)保持上漲趨勢，比上個月增加了2500萬股，比去年同期增加了約1億股。這相當于一個舒適的水平54天的遠期封面。在7月29日至9月2日期間，美國商業(yè)石油庫存減少了1190萬桶，其中汽油是造成這一損失的主要原因。截至9月9日當周的最新信息顯示，原油和中間餾分油的庫存進一步減少，而汽油庫存較普遍預(yù)期增加190萬桶。8月份，16國（歐盟加挪威）的石油庫存總量略微下降140萬桶，至11244萬桶。這一小幅下跌來自原油庫存，原油庫存略有下降，而產(chǎn)品庫存繼續(xù)上升，但汽油庫存略有下降。7月份，日本商業(yè)石油庫存總量恢復(fù)了上月的跌幅，增加490萬桶，達到18670萬桶。石油供需平衡有所調(diào)整，導(dǎo)致2005年第四季度以及2005年和2006年全年對歐佩克原油的需求略有下降。預(yù)計2005年歐佩克原油需求為2890萬桶/日，較2004年增加60萬桶/日，但略低于此前預(yù)計的290萬桶/日。按季度計算，歐佩克原油需求分別為2870萬桶/日和3030萬桶/日。2006年，歐佩克原油的平均需求預(yù)計為2900萬桶/日，比2005年增加10萬桶/日。

The impact of Hurricane Katrina on the world economy will be felt through the reduction in the economic activity of theUSA and the rise in the global price of petroleum products. The direct effect on the growth rate of the US economy in 2005is expected to be a reduction of about 0.2% although next year will see substantial spending on rebuilding which will boostgrowth in the South East. The US GDP growth forecast for 2005 has been reduced to 3.4%. Despite higher expenditures onreconstruction, US growth is expected to be lower at 3% in 2006 as a result of the impact of higher interest rates and inflationon the housing market and consumer spending. Prior to Hurricane Katrina, high gasoline prices appeared to have started to impact some Asian economies. Those countrieswhich subsidize fuel prices face rising fiscal deficits and a number of governments have announced plans to reduce subsidiesor increase retail prices, which will reduce consumer spending power and the growth forecast for the Asia Pacific region.The latest forecast for the Asia Pacific region has been reduced to 3.9% for 2006. Additionally, these countries may also beaffected by slower growth in the USA and China in 2006. Second quarter data confirmed that the Japanese economy is performing very well. Japan is forecast to grow by 1.7% in2005 and this forecast will probably be revised up. Further steady growth of 1.7% is expected in 2006. The Euro-zone isexpected to grow by 1.1% in 2005. An improvement is expected in 2006 although the forecast growth rate of 1.5% remainsbelow trend. The estimated growth rate for the world economy in 2005 is unchanged at 4.1% despite the downward USadjustment since projections for commodity producers such as Australia and Canada have been increased. Lower worldgrowth of 3.9% is forecast for 2006 mainly as a result of deceleration in developing countries. The price of the OPEC Reference Basket jumped 5% in the first week in August following a series of refinery outages ofnearly 2 mb/d. The upward trend was furthered by the unplanned shut down of an oil production facility in the North Sea aswell as a strike in Ecuador which halted crude oil output. However, Hurricane Katrina topped it all by disrupting asignificant volume of refining capacity and upstream production in the Gulf of Mexico. The August monthly average closedat $57.82/b for a gain of $4.69 or almost 9%. Nevertheless, the emergency response from IEA member countries as well asassurances from OPEC of its commitment to meet any supply shortfall have helped to overcome fears of a crude supplyshortage. Consequently, the oil price dropped 9% from its highest level of $61.37/b on 1 September to $56.28/b on14 September. Product markets have undergone two phases over the last couple of weeks. In the first phase, gasoline stocks in the AtlanticBasin were running low and demand for gasoline in the USA was high, while in Asia the market looked relativelyoverbalanced for middle distillates and more promising for gasoline due to lower exports from China, Taiwan and India.During phase two, which followed the impact of Hurricane Katrina, product sentiment saw significant gains and variousproduct prices, particularly gasoline, rose sharply. The initial impact of the hurricane fully or partially affected the operationsof about 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the USA. Currently, some 2 mb/d of this capacity have returned to normal operations,while the remaining 0.9 mb/d is expected to be offline for weeks, if not months. This situation will tighten the refiningindustry further, which has already suffered from shortage of capacity and should support crude and product prices over thenext few months. OPEC total spot chartering remained close to the previous month’s level at 13.4 m/d. Middle East fixtures dropped by0.3 mb/d, corresponding to a decline of around 0.5 mb/d in westbound fixtures and a growth of 0.1 mb/d in eastbound.Sailings from the OPEC area increased for the second consecutive month to 25.3 mb/d, with Middle East accountingfor the total growth. Due to a surplus of available tonnage, the tanker market weakened with freight rates declining onmost routes, except on the Indonesia/US East Coast and Mediterranean/North-West Europe routes. The product tankermarket saw mixed trends, with freight rates continuing to improve for the second month in the east and slidingsignificantly in the west. Estimated total world oil demand in 2005 has been revised down from last month’s projection to reflect weak apparentdemand growth in the first half of the year, record pump prices for transportation fuels, and negative retail margins aswell as the change in subsidy policies. Thus, total world oil demand in 2005 is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d or 1.7%to average 83.5 mb/d. As for the year 2006 and based on the estimated healthy rate of world economic expansion, oildemand is projected to rise by 1.5 mb/d or 1.8% to an annual average of 85.0 mb/d. Non-OPEC production in 2005 is expected to average 50.4 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.6 mb/d over theprevious year, following a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to last month’s figures. On a quarterly basis, production forthe second, third, and fourth quarters has been revised down by 47 tb/d, 257 tb/d and 173 tb/d respectively. Revisionsto US production account for the bulk of the adjustments in the third and fourth quarters of 2005, but given theuncertainties related to the recovery of US production post Hurricane Katrina, this forecast is likely to be revised againin the coming months. For 2006, non-OPEC oil production is expected to average 51.5 mb/d, an increase ofapproximately 1 mb/d over 2005, while OPEC NGLs including non-conventional oils are expected to increase0.3 mb/d. In August, OPEC production average 30.2 mb/d, maintaining the high level of the previous month. At the end of July 2005, OECD stocks continued their upward trend, rising 25 mb over the previous month and around100 mb over the same time last year. This corresponded to a comfortable level of 54 day of forward cover. During theperiod 29 July-2 September, US commercial oil stocks witnessed a draw of 11.9 mb with gasoline being the maincontribute to this loss. The latest information for the week ending 9 September shows a further stock withdraw in crudeand middle distillates, while gasoline stocks saw an increase of 1.9 mb against general expectations. Total oil stocks inEur-16 (EU plus Norway) in August declined a slight 1.4 mb to stand at 1,124.4 mb. This minor draw came from crudeoil stocks which decreased moderately while product inventories continued to head up except for gasoline which moveddown marginally. Total commercial oil stocks in Japan regained the previous month’s losses in July, building by 4.9 mbto stand at 186.7 mb. The oil supply/demand balance has been revised leading to slightly lower requirements for OPEC crude in the fourthquarter of 2005, and for the whole of 2005 and 2006. The demand for OPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is forecast at28.9 mb/d, an increase of 0.6 mb/d from 2004, but slightly lower than the 29.0 mb/d projected earlier. On a quarterlybasis, the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 28.7 mb/d and 30.3 mb/d for the third and fourth quartersrespectively. For 2006, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 29.0 mb/d, an increase of 100,000 b/d from2005.