2006年第一季度，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)保持了最近的增長模式，美國和中國都表現(xiàn)強勁。在去年最后一個季度颶風(fēng)相關(guān)的疲軟之后，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長了4.8%。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎沒有減速的跡象，因為快速增長的出口和投資將第一季度的增長推高至10.2%。由于出口和商業(yè)支出的增加，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率顯著提高，達(dá)到2.4%。一些亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體今年第一季度電子行業(yè)的出口需求和生產(chǎn)活動有所放緩，但非洲和拉丁美洲的大宗商品生產(chǎn)商受益于這一時期金屬價格的顯著上漲。到目前為止，2006年銅價上漲了80%以上。

預(yù)計2006年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長3.4%。歐元區(qū)的商業(yè)信心正在明顯改善，2006年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期已增至1.9%。2006年對日本的預(yù)測也被修正到2.7%，對中國的預(yù)測也被提高到9.3%。這些升級是將2006年世界gdp增長預(yù)測提高到4.7%的主要原因。

歐佩克參考籃子的發(fā)展繼續(xù)以地緣政治問題和美國汽油市場的發(fā)展為主導(dǎo)。在美國汽油庫存減少的情況下，市場仍擔(dān)心可能出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺。布倫特/迪拜原油的持續(xù)寬幅價差有助于增加中東原油的需求。煉油利潤率的提高和季節(jié)性轉(zhuǎn)變的結(jié)束支撐了市場情緒。然而，市場認(rèn)為需求增長可能弱于預(yù)期，并在本月底前緩解了對美國汽油供應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂，這使得市場受到抑制。今年4月，西奧佩克創(chuàng)下64.44美元/桶的月度新高，較上月上漲6.57美元或11.35%。在5月的前兩周，該籃子曾短暫觸及68.37美元/桶的新紀(jì)錄高位，5月16日跌至63.83美元/桶，因市場供應(yīng)充足，需求預(yù)期減弱。

美國和亞洲的大型煉油廠維修計劃，加上美國汽油庫存持續(xù)減少，以及擔(dān)心駕駛季節(jié)供應(yīng)短缺，支撐了全球產(chǎn)品市場的看漲情緒，并提振了4月份不同市場的產(chǎn)品價格和煉油廠利潤率。在美國總統(tǒng)最近就放寬汽油規(guī)格和提高乙醇進(jìn)口關(guān)稅發(fā)表聲明后，實物和期貨產(chǎn)品市場失去了部分先前的強勁勢頭。此外，隨著美國春季煉油廠轉(zhuǎn)型的完成，全球范圍內(nèi)的汽油產(chǎn)量上升可能加劇近期產(chǎn)品價格的下降趨勢，導(dǎo)致煉油利潤進(jìn)一步走軟。不過，鑒于煉油閑置產(chǎn)能緊張，加之駕駛季需求不斷上升，任何意外的煉油廠停產(chǎn)都可能對成品油和原油價格構(gòu)成支撐。

4月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量連續(xù)第二個月增長，平均為1350萬桶/日，這是受生產(chǎn)復(fù)蘇和預(yù)訂量增加的支撐。非歐佩克國家和歐佩克國家的原油現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量都出現(xiàn)了50萬桶/日的增長。歐佩克國家的原油現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月回升了30萬桶/日，達(dá)到2410萬桶/日。原油運輸?shù)默F(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量繼續(xù)呈下降趨勢，特別是在超大型油輪領(lǐng)域，由于供應(yīng)充足和持續(xù)的煉油維護(hù)需求放緩，超大型油輪價格創(chuàng)下了10個月來的新低WS60。到本月底，運價有所改善，但與2005年的水平相比仍然疲軟。相比之下，產(chǎn)品運價扭轉(zhuǎn)了大多數(shù)航線的下降趨勢，特別是新加坡/日本航線，在第四周至第一周期間，產(chǎn)品運價增長了60%。盡管有所恢復(fù)，但產(chǎn)品運價仍低于上一年。

據(jù)預(yù)測，2006年世界石油需求增長為140萬桶/日，占總需求8460萬桶/日的1.7%。這意味著，與上一個MOMR的增長預(yù)測相比，全球石油需求將略微下降6萬桶/日，主要歸因于第一季度，因為現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)有了完整的數(shù)據(jù)。高油價導(dǎo)致主要是發(fā)達(dá)國家的增量需求放緩，特別是那些減少了產(chǎn)品補貼的國家。從地區(qū)來看，北美的石油需求增長預(yù)計將放緩20萬桶/日。預(yù)計世界石油需求增長的主要份額將主要來自中國，增長50萬桶/日。由于高油價繼續(xù)支持該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，中東地區(qū)今年的石油需求增長預(yù)計也將達(dá)到30萬桶/日。

2006年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計為5150萬桶/日，比去年增加130萬桶/日，但較上一次評估的水平下降了92000桶/日。這一調(diào)整反映了一些國家第一季度的實際數(shù)據(jù)，但主要低于加拿大、安哥拉和蘇丹下半年的預(yù)期產(chǎn)量增長。這種風(fēng)險的供應(yīng)影響，如颶風(fēng)在美國墨西哥灣的恢復(fù)，以及主要國家在美國、巴西和蘇丹等主要項目的潛在延誤，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)充分反映在這一預(yù)測中。非歐佩克成員國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)計將從6月份開始迅速加速，與此前的估計一致。據(jù)第二位消息人士透露，歐佩克原油平均產(chǎn)量為2980萬桶/日，較上月增加16.4萬桶/日，主要來自伊拉克。

初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，4月份經(jīng)合組織原油平均進(jìn)口3170萬桶/日，較上月增加1.8萬桶/日，產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口穩(wěn)定在1100萬桶/日。美國原油進(jìn)口下降14萬桶/日，至980萬桶/日，日本進(jìn)口增加3.5萬桶/日。3月份，中國原油凈進(jìn)口繼續(xù)下降，至270萬桶/日，上個月約10萬桶/日下降，原因是進(jìn)口增長8.5萬桶/日，而出口增長18.7萬桶/日。然而，它顯示的16萬桶/日比一年前高。印度3月份的原油進(jìn)口量為220萬桶/日，凈產(chǎn)品出口量為40萬桶/日，貿(mào)易沒有出現(xiàn)任何重大變化。

4月份美國商業(yè)石油庫存微跌80萬桶，至10.068億桶?？傮w水平比去年和五年平均水平分別高出2%和6%。原油庫存增加360萬桶/日，而總產(chǎn)量繼續(xù)下降，下降了440萬桶。4月份，16歐元（歐盟15國加上挪威）的商業(yè)石油庫存總量增加了360萬歐元，至11.622億歐元，原因是總產(chǎn)品盈余增加了580萬歐元，超過了原油庫存的小幅減少。這使得商業(yè)庫存總量比去年增加了3.5%，比五年平均水平增加了9%左右。在印度，商業(yè)石油庫存總量激增590萬桶，比2月份的水平翻了兩番，而且原油庫存大幅增長1030萬桶。

預(yù)計2006年歐佩克原油需求平均為2860萬桶/日，較上月增加10萬桶/日。按季度計算，第一季度為29.7，而新預(yù)測預(yù)計，第二季度歐佩克原油需求為2820萬桶/日，第三季度為2820萬桶/日，第四季度為2840萬桶/日。值得注意的是，4月份的運營成本約為2980萬桶/日，而總產(chǎn)能超過3250萬桶/日。

     The recent pattern of global growth rates was maintained in the first quarter of 2006 with a strong performance from both theUSA and China. The US economy grew by 4.8% following hurricane-related weakness in the final quarter of last year. TheChinese economy showed little sign of deceleration as fast growing exports and investment pushed first quarter growth to10.2%. Growth in the Euro-zone showed a considerable improvement at 2.4%, thanks to exports and increases in businessspending. Some Asian economies have seen a slowdown in export demand and production activity in the electronics sector inthe first quarter, but commodity producers in Africa and Latin America benefited from the remarkable rise in metal prices inthis period. Thus far in 2006 copper prices have risen by over 80%.

  The US economy is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2006. The Euro-zone is experiencing a clear improvement in businesssentiment and the growth forecast for 2006 has been increased to 1.9%. The 2006 forecast for Japan has also been revised upto 2.7% and the forecast for China has been raised to 9.3%. These upgrades are the main reason why the forecast of worldGDP growth for 2006 has been raised to 4.7%. 

Developments in the OPEC Reference Basket continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues and developments in the USgasoline markets. The market remained concerned over a possible supply shortfall amid gasoline stock draws in the USA. Thecontinued wide Brent/Dubai spread helped increase demand for Mideast crude. Improved refining margins and the end ofseasonal turnarounds supported the market sentiment. However, the perception that demand growth might be weaker thananticipated and easing concern over US gasoline supplies towards the end of the month kept the market in check. In April, theOPEC Basket set a record monthly high of $64.44/b, representing a gain of $6.57 or 11.35% over the previous month. Overthe first two weeks of May, the Basket briefly touched a new record high of $68.37/b before declining to $63.83/b on 16 Mayin response to weaker demand expectation amid a well supplied market. 

Heavy refinery maintenance schedules in the USA and Asia, along with continued gasoline stock-draws in the USA and fearof a supply shortage during the driving season, have supported the bullish product market sentiment across the world and liftedproduct prices and refinery margins in different markets in April. Physical and futures product markets lost part of theirprevious strength following the recent statement of the US President regarding the relaxation of gasoline specifications and thelifting of the ethanol import tariffs. Additionally, with the completion of spring refinery turnarounds in the USA, risinggasoline production across the globe may compound the recent downtrend in product prices causing refining margins to softenfurther. However, given tight spare refining capacity and rising demand over the driving season, any unplanned refineryoutages could lend support to both product and crude prices. 

OPEC spot fixtures increased for the second consecutive month in April to average 13.5 mb/d, supported by the recovery inproduction and higher bookings. Both non-OPEC and OPEC spot fixtures showed the same growth of 0.5 mb/d. OPECsailings recovered from the previous month by 0.3 mb/d to stand at 24.1 mb/d. Spot rates for shipping crude oil continued theirdownward trend, especially for the VLCC sector where they hit a 10-month low of WS60 due to plentiful supply and sluggishdemand on the back of ongoing refining maintenance. Freight rates saw some improvement by the end of the month, butremained weak compared to 2005 levels. In contrast, product freight rates reversed the downward trend on most routes,particularly on the Singapore/Japan route where they enjoyed a growth of 60% between the fourth and first week. Despite therecovery, product freight rates remained lower than the previous year. 

World oil demand growth in 2006 is forecast at 1.4 mb/d or 1.7% to total 84.6 mb/d. This represents a marginal downwardrevision of 60,000 b/d to the growth forecast in the last MOMR, mainly attributed to the first quarter as complete data has nowbecome available. High oil prices have contributed to a slowing of incremental demand mainly in the Developed Countries,especially for those countries where product subsidies have been reduced. On a regional basis, oil demand growth in NorthAmerica is expected to ease by 0.2 mb/d. The major share of world oil demand growth is expected to come mainly fromChina, increasing by 0.5 mb/d. Middle East is also expected contribute 0.3 mb/d for the year as high oil prices continue tosupport economic growth in the region. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.5 mb/d in 2006, representing an increase of 1.3 mb/d over last year, but adownward revision of 92,000 b/d versus the last assessment. The adjustment reflects actual data for several countries for firstquarter, but primarily lower than expected production growth from Canada, Angola, and Sudan in the second half. The supplyimpact of known risks, such as post-hurricane recovery in the US Gulf of Mexico as well as potential delays of major projectsin key countries such as the USA, Brazil and Sudan, are now fully reflected in this forecast. Non-OPEC growth is expected toaccelerate rapidly from June onwards, consistent with previous estimates. OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.8 mb/d inApril, according to secondary sources, representing an increase of 164,000 b/d from last month, mainly coming from Iraq. 

Preliminary data shows that OECD crude oil imports averaged 31.7 mb/d in April, an increase of 18,000 b/d over the previousmonth while product imports remained stable at 11 mb/d. US crude imports fell 140,000 b/d to 9.8 mb/d, while Japan’s importsedged up 35,000 b/d. Net crude oil imports for China continued to decline to hit 2.7 mb/d in March, around 100,000 b/d lowerthan the previous month, resulting from the 85,000 b/d growth in imports versus an 187,000 b/d increase in exports. However itshows 160,000 b/d higher than a year ago. India’s trade did not see any significant changes with crude imports at 2.2 mb/d and netproduct exports at 0.4 mb/d in March.

     US commercial oil stocks in April saw a slight decline of 0.8 mb to stand at 1,006.8 mb. The overall level remained around2% and 6% above last year and the five-year average. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 mb/d, while total productscontinued to decline, falling 4.4 mb. Total commercial oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU-15 plus Norway) inched up by 3.6 mb to1,146.2 mb in April as a result of a surplus in total products which rose by 5.8 mb, more than offsetting the small draw oncrude oil stocks. This left total commercial inventories 3.5% above last year and around 9% over the five-year average. InJapan, total commercial oil stocks experienced a surge of 5.9 mb, which tripled the level seen in February and was entirelydriven by a considerable 10.3 mb increase in crude oil stocks.

  Demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.6 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d versus theprevious month. On a quarterly basis, the first quarter stood at 29.7, while the new forecast expects demand for OPEC crude at28.2 mb/d in the second quarter, 28.2 mb/d in the third and 28.4 mb/d in the fourth quarter. It is worth noting that OPECproduced at around 29.8 mb/d in April compared to total capacity of more than 32.5 mb/d.