原油價格變動4月份，在各種看漲因素的支撐下，歐佩克的參考籃子升至今年最高值?；@子價格上漲4.84美元，至57.30美元/桶，盡管同比漲幅明顯下降。ICE布倫特原油期貨合約上漲4.20美元，至61.14美元/桶，紐約商品交易所（Nymex）原油期貨價格上漲6.77美元，至54.63美元/桶。2015年世界經(jīng)濟增長率已從之前的3.4%下調(diào)至3.3%，與去年的增長一致。這主要歸功于美國，繼2015年第一季度增長乏力之后，美國經(jīng)濟增長率從2.9%調(diào)整為2.6%。歐元區(qū)和日本的匯率分別為1.3%和0.8%。在新興市場，中國從7.0%降至6.9%，巴西從0.2%降至-0.4%。俄羅斯和印度的石油需求分別保持在-3.2%和7.5%的水平。2015年世界石油需求預(yù)計將略高于118萬桶/日，而上一年的增長為96萬桶/日。對2015年增長率的小幅上調(diào)主要反映了對經(jīng)合組織（OECD）美國石油需求上升的預(yù)期。2015年，世界石油供應(yīng)國歐佩克石油供應(yīng)增長預(yù)計為68萬桶/日，而上一年為217萬桶/日。歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量繼去年增長18萬桶/日后，預(yù)計2015年將增長19萬桶/日。據(jù)第二方消息人士稱，4月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量微增18 tb/d，平均為3084 mb/d，4月份大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)品市場喜憂參半。美國駕車季前強勁的汽油需求為打破油價頂部的價差提供了支撐；然而，隨著來自歐洲的資金流入不斷增加，美國海灣沿岸煉油廠的增加給中間餾分油帶來了壓力。在亞洲，由于供應(yīng)的增加超過了強勁的區(qū)域需求，利潤率下降，原因是整個油輪市場的基本面疲軟。油輪市場臟船現(xiàn)貨運價下降，主要是由于蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪市場的噸位需求有限，而超大型油輪運價較上個月上漲了17%。歐佩克和全球現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量分別下降4.2%和2.9%，原因是東部和西部目的地的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降。4月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量平均為1113萬桶/日，歐佩克的出海量平均為2335萬桶/日。3月份，商業(yè)石油庫存增加了160萬桶，達到2745萬桶。在這一水平上，庫存比五年平均水平高出9800萬桶。原油過剩9900萬桶，而成品油庫存幾乎與五年平均水平持平。就前期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)庫存為61.0天，比五年平均水平高出2.8天。2015年歐佩克原油供需平衡預(yù)計為2930萬桶/日。此前，歐佩克原油的供需平衡較上月略有上升，較2014年2900萬桶/日的預(yù)計增長了30萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose in April to its highest value this year supported byvarious bullish factors. The Basket increased $4.84 to $57.30/b, although remainedconsiderably lower y-o-y. ICE Brent contract rose $4.20 to $61.14/b and Nymex WTIjumped $6.77 to $54.63/b.World EconomyWorld economic growth for 2015 has been revised down to 3.3% from 3.4% previously, inline with last year’s growth. This is mainly due to the US, where growth has been revised to2.6% from 2.9%, following sluggish growth in 1Q15. Euro-zone and Japan remainunchanged at 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively. In the emerging markets, China has beenrevised to 6.9% from 7.0% and Brazil to -0.4% from 0.2%. Russia and India remainunchanged at -3.2% and 7.5%, respectively.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand in 2015 is now projected to rise at a slightly higher 1.18 mb/d, comparedto growth of 0.96 mb/d in the previous year. The slight upward revision to the 2015 growthfigure mainly reflects expectations of uptick in oil requirements in the OECD America.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth in 2015 is expected to grow by 0.68 mb/d, compared to anincrease of 2.17 mb/d in the previous year. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by0.19 mb/d in 2015, following growth of 0.18 mb/d last year. In April, OPEC crude oilproduction increased by a marginal 18 tb/d to average 30.84 mb/d, according to secondarysources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin were mixed in April. Strong gasoline demand aheadof the US driving season lent support to crack spreads at the top of the barrel; however,middle distillates were pressured by higher refinery runs in the US Gulf Coast amidincreasing inflows from Europe. In Asia, margins fell due to weakening marketfundamentals across the barrel, as increasing supplies outweighed strong regionaldemand.Tanker MarketDirty vessel spot freight rates dropped m-o-m as a result of limited tonnage demand mainlyin the Suezmax and Aframax markets, while VLCC rates rose 17% compared to theprevious month. Both OPEC and global spot fixtures declined by 4.2% and 2.9%,respectively, on the back of lower fixtures for eastern and western destinations. In April,OPEC spot fixtures averaged 11.13 mb/d and OPEC sailings averaged 23.35 mb/d.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose by 16.0 mb in March to stand at 2,745 mb. At this level,inventories were 98 mb higher than the five-year average. Crude saw a surplus of 99 mb,while product stocks remained almost in line with the five-year average. In terms of days offorward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 61.0 days, 2.8 days higher than the fiveyearaverage.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2015 is expected at 29.3 mb/d. This follows a slight upwardadjustment from the previous month and represents a gain of 0.3 mb/d over the estimatefor 2014 of 29.0 mb/d.