在上半年的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)之后，2006年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長估計數(shù)已作了修訂。能源價格的下降和消費(fèi)者收入的穩(wěn)定增長應(yīng)能緩和預(yù)期的放緩。據(jù)預(yù)測，2006年歐元區(qū)的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將增長2.2%，高于2%，而美國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值也略有增長，達(dá)到3.4%。企業(yè)投資有望保持日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長勢頭，因為產(chǎn)能過剩和穩(wěn)定的利潤將維持企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流。盡管消費(fèi)支出有所下降，但GDP增長率仍應(yīng)為2.8%。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)表現(xiàn)良好，無視減速預(yù)期。2006年，中國預(yù)計將增長10.2%。這些對經(jīng)合組織和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體預(yù)測的上調(diào)，將2006年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期從4.8%上調(diào)至5%。今年強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)勢頭對2007年的增長預(yù)測沒有太大影響。事實上，高水平的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動加劇了通脹上升和利率進(jìn)一步上升的變化。2007年，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)計將降至2.6%，盡管歐元區(qū)和日本的表現(xiàn)最近有所改善，如果美國進(jìn)口增長放緩，這些地區(qū)明年不太可能實現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長；此外，美元走軟將降低出口競爭力。隨著財政政策收緊和日本可能只實現(xiàn)1.9%的增長，歐元區(qū)預(yù)計在2007年僅增長1.5%。預(yù)計2007年發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率也將下降，降至5.4%，中國也可能適度減速至9%。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計明年將增長4.3%。這些增長率表明，2003年開始的擴(kuò)張將以健康的速度繼續(xù)下去。無論如何，重大風(fēng)險的數(shù)量都不會影響前景。美國住房市場放緩的影響是不可預(yù)測的，隨著閑置產(chǎn)能的邊際被削弱，近期單位勞動力成本的飆升可能預(yù)示著未來通脹率的上升。貨幣當(dāng)局在遇到挫折時幾乎沒有調(diào)整政策的余地，而降低預(yù)算赤字的需要減少了財政刺激，尤其是在經(jīng)合組織國家。全球失衡仍然是匯率穩(wěn)定和貿(mào)易繼續(xù)自由化的威脅。在全球制造業(yè)增長放緩的環(huán)境下，發(fā)展中國家明年可能還將面臨商品價格的下降。歐佩克的參考籃子在8月份出現(xiàn)了波動，其間的發(fā)展情況喜憂參半。俄羅斯安達(dá)拉斯卡（andAlaska）的輸油管道中斷將油價推高至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，8月8日，該籃子原油價格最高達(dá)到72.67美元/桶。不過，地緣政治局勢的緩和緩和了市場情緒，使籃子在本月底前跌破63美元的水平。不，該籃子平均價格為68.81美元/桶。下跌趨勢背后的其他因素是，亞洲煉油廠的開工率下降，原因是利潤率下降、美國駕駛季節(jié)結(jié)束以及冬季前充足的冬季蒸餾油供應(yīng)。9月的頭幾周，籃子價格進(jìn)一步下跌，9月14日跌至59.22美元/桶，自上個月的峰值以來，下跌了近14美元/桶，再次顯示了市場的波動程度。由于需求放緩、產(chǎn)量增加和夏季駕車季結(jié)束，產(chǎn)品市場繼續(xù)失去早先的強(qiáng)勁勢頭。因此，全球各地的產(chǎn)品市場情緒發(fā)生了重大變化，給煉油廠利潤率帶來下行壓力。9月份，汽油和燃料油市場的持續(xù)看跌勢頭可能對煉油廠利潤率造成進(jìn)一步的下行壓力。盡管庫存水平良好，但中間餾分油市場仍相對強(qiáng)勁，這將導(dǎo)致未來幾個月利潤率保持健康。此外，歐洲秋季煉油廠維護(hù)工作較以往更深入，美國零售水平向超低硫柴油（ULSD）過渡（從10月15日起生效），也可能為未來的產(chǎn)品和原油價格提供支撐。8月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降了60萬桶/日，平均為130萬桶/日，主要原因是中東/亞洲地區(qū)的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降。不過，與一年前相比，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量仍高出50萬桶/日。有限的可用噸位繼續(xù)支撐原油油輪市場，運(yùn)價高于歷史平均水平，特別是在超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪領(lǐng)域。從中東向東和向西移動的超大型油輪的費(fèi)率比一年前分別高出90%和50%。同樣，西非和美國墨西哥灣沿岸之間的蘇伊士型油輪交易以及那些從事跨大西洋業(yè)務(wù)的公司的價格同比增長了66%。清潔油輪呈現(xiàn)出混合模式，東、西市場的走勢通常相反。蘇伊士以東的運(yùn)價猛增了38%左右，而蘇伊士以西的大部分航線則出現(xiàn)了疲軟。2006年世界石油需求增長率自上一個月環(huán)比下降了10萬桶/日，降至120萬桶/日，因為最近的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年上半年的需求低于預(yù)期。美國最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管汽油價格穩(wěn)定，但蘇聯(lián)汽油需求僅增長0.7%，遠(yuǎn)低于1.6%的年平均水平。這導(dǎo)致北美第二季度和第三季度石油需求分別下調(diào)了0.2 mb/d和0.1 mb/d。占世界石油需求增長92%的發(fā)展中國家，預(yù)計今年的增量需求為60萬桶/日。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速繼續(xù)超過預(yù)期，到年底石油需求增速可能達(dá)到8.3%。2007年世界石油需求增長預(yù)測仍維持在130萬桶/日或1.5%。與今年一樣，2007年石油需求增長的最大份額將來自發(fā)展中國家。2006年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計為5110萬桶/日，比上一年增加110萬桶/日，與上一次評估基本持平。由于普拉德霍灣可能比先前設(shè)想的更早重新啟動，美國的估計可能會有輕微的上調(diào)。7月和8月的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，非歐佩克國家的總供應(yīng)量分別約為5090萬桶/日和5080萬桶/日，同比分別增長110萬桶/日和90萬桶/日。明年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計為5300萬桶/日，比2006年增加180萬桶/日。2007年的增長預(yù)測保持不變。8月份，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量為2980萬桶/日，比上個月修正后的產(chǎn)量增加了10萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織原油進(jìn)口連續(xù)第五個月增長，達(dá)到3200萬桶/日的10個月高點(diǎn)，較上月和上年同期增加10萬桶/日。美國和日本的原油進(jìn)口分別增長9萬桶/日和20萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均1040萬桶/日和420萬桶/日。中國的原油進(jìn)口下降36.3萬桶/日，是今年以來最大的下降，7月份達(dá)到平均250萬桶/日。盡管有所下降，2006年1-7月期間，中國原油進(jìn)口量平均為290萬桶/日，同比增長13%。相比之下，印度原油進(jìn)口量增長6.4萬桶/日，接近220萬桶/日，比上月增長3%。8月份，美國商業(yè)石油庫存總量為1030萬桶，或30萬桶/日，與上月相比達(dá)到106670萬桶。目前庫存比去年和五年平均水平分別高出4.3%和7.2%。盡管有250萬桶原油被抽走，但原油庫存無論從成交量還是遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋率上都保持在令人滿意的水平。汽油價格本月進(jìn)一步下跌，但仍遠(yuǎn)高于去年同期水平和五年平均水平。8月份，16歐元（歐盟15國加上挪威）的商業(yè)石油總庫存較前一個月減少840萬歐元，但仍與去年同期持平，比五年平均水平高出6%。抽簽集中在中間餾分油和原油庫存上。相比之下，日本7月份的商業(yè)庫存總量略增100萬件，達(dá)到18390萬件，但仍低于去年水平和5年平均水平。中間餾分油庫存的增加和原油庫存的恢復(fù)抵消了汽油和剩余燃料油庫存的損失。預(yù)計2006年歐佩克原油需求平均為2890萬桶/日，較上月下降20萬桶/日。2007年，歐佩克原油的平均需求預(yù)計為2810萬桶/日，與2006年相比，阿德克林原油的需求量為80萬桶/日。該預(yù)測顯示，按季度計算，歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計在第一季度為2920萬桶/日，第二季度為2700萬桶/日，第三季度為2800萬桶/日，第四季度為2840萬桶/日。

Estimates of GDP growth for 2006 have been revised up following the strong performance of the first half of theyear. Lower energy prices and steady growth in consumer incomes should moderate the expected slowdown. TheGDP of the Euro-zone is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2006, up from 2%, and the estimate for the USA has also beenraised slightly to 3.4%. Business investment is expected to maintain the momentum of the Japanese economy as areduction in excess capacity and solid profits should maintain corporate cash flows. GDP growth should be 2.8%despite some weakening in consumer spending. The Chinese economy continues to perform well, defyingexpectations of deceleration. In 2006 China is expected to grow by 10.2%. These upward revisions to forecasts forboth OECD and developing economies have raised the 2006 forecast for world growth to 5% from 4.8%. The strong economic momentum of this year has not had much impact on growth forecasts for 2007. In fact thedangers of higher inflation and further increases in interest rates have been intensified by the high level of activity.US economic growth is forecast to fall to 2.6% in 2007 and despite the recent improvement of the performance of theEuro-zone and Japan, it is unlikely that these regions will be able to grow strongly next year if US import growthsoftens; moreover a weaker dollar will reduce export competitiveness. The Euro-zone is expected to grow by only1.5% in 2007 as fiscal policy tightens and Japan may only achieve 1.9%. Growth in developing countries is alsoexpected to be lower in 2007, falling to 5.4% and China may also see modest deceleration to 9%. The world economyis forecast to grow by 4.3% next year. These growth rates suggest that the expansion which began in 2003 is set to continue at a healthy pace. Neverthelessa number of significant risks cloud the outlook. The impact of the housing slowdown in the USA is unpredictable andthe recent jump in unit labour costs may foreshadow higher inflation ahead as margins of spare capacity are eroded.Monetary authorities have little scope to adjust policy in case of setbacks and the need to reduce budget deficitsimplies less fiscal stimulus, especially in OECD countries. Global imbalances remain a threat to the stability ofexchange rates and the continued liberalisation of trade. Developing Countries may also face declines in commodityprices next year in a climate of slower growth in world manufacturing. The OPEC Reference Basket was volatile in August amid mixed developments. Pipeline outages in Russia andAlaska pushed prices to record-highs with the Basket peaking at $72.67/b on 8 August. However, easing geopoliticaldevelopments calmed market sentiment, allowing the Basket to drop below the $63 level by the end of the month. InAugust, the Basket averaged $68.81/b. Other factors behind the down trend were lower refinery run rates in Asia dueto weaker margins, the end of the US driving season and ample winter distillate supplies ahead of winter. The Basketfell further in the first weeks of September, dropping to $59.22/b on 14 September, a loss of almost $14/b since theprevious month’s peak, demonstrating yet again the degree of volatility in the market. Product markets continued to lose their earlier strength on slowing demand, higher production and the end of thesummer driving season. As a result, product market sentiment changed significantly across the globe, puttingdownward pressure on refinery margins. In September, the continuation of the bearish momentum in the gasoline andfuel oil markets may exert further downward pressure on refinery margins. Despite healthy stock levels, the marketfor middle distillates has remained relatively strong, which should result in healthy margins over the next fewmonths. Moreover, deeper-than-usual refinery maintenance in Europe in autumn and the transition to ultra-lowsulphur diesel (ULSD) at retail level in the USA (effective from 15 October onwards) could also provide support toproduct and crude prices in the future. OPEC spot fixtures fell 0.6 mb/d to average 13.0 mb/d in August, mainly as a result of the drop in Middle East/Asiafixtures. Compared to a year earlier, however, OPEC spot fixtures remained 0.5 mb/d higher. Limited tonnageavailability continued to support the crude oil tanker market with freight rates higher than historical averages,particularly in the VLCC and Suezmax sectors. Rates for VLCCs moving from the Middle East eastbound andwestbound were 90% and 50% higher than a year earlier. Similarly, Suezmaxes trading between West Africa and theUS Gulf Coast and those doing trans-Atlantic business saw rates displaying 66% growth y-o-y. Clean tankers sawmixed patterns with East and West markets generally moving in opposite directions. Rates for East of Suez jumpedby around 38% while most of the West of Suez routes softened. World oil demand growth in 2006 has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d since the last MOMR to stand at 1.2 mb/d, asrecent data shows weaker-than-expected demand in the first half of the year. The latest US data revealed that USsummer gasoline demand grew by only 0.7%, well below the annual average of 1.6% despite the stabilization ofgasoline prices. This has led to downward revisions of 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d to second- and third-quarter oil demandfigures for North America. Developing Countries, which account for 92% of world oil demand growth, are expectedto see incremental demand of 0.6 mb/d for the year. China’s accelerating economy continues to exceed expectationsand oil demand growth could reach 8.3% by year-end. World oil demand growth forecast for the year 2007 remainsunchanged at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%. As in the current year, the lion’s share of oil demand growth in 2007 will come fromDeveloping Countries. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2006 is expected to average 51.1 mb/d, representing an increase of 1.1 mb/d over theprevious year and broadly unchanged from the last assessment. The estimate for the USA may be subject to a slightupward revision now that Prudhoe Bay may restart earlier than previously assumed. Preliminary data for the month ofJuly and August puts total non-OPEC supply at around 50.9 mb/d and 50.8 mb/d, representing y-o-y growth of1.1 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d respectively. Next year, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 53 mb/d, representing anincrease of 1.8 mb/d versus 2006. The 2007 growth forecast remains unchanged. In August, OPEC production stoodat 29.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d from the revised previous month. OECD crude oil imports continued to increase for the fifth consecutive month to hit a 10-month high of 32.0 mb inAugust, a rise of 100,000 b/d from the previous month and a year earlier. US and Japan’s crude oil imports sawrespective gains of 90,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d to average 10.4 mb/d and 4.2 mb/d. China’s crude oil imports fell363,000 b/d, the steepest decline so far this year, to average 2.5 mb/d in July. Despite the drop, for the periodJanuary-July 2006 China’s crude oil imports averaged 2.9 mb/d, which represents a 13% increase y-o-y. In contrast,India’s crude oil imports rose 64,000 b/d to nearly 2.2 mb/d, a gain of 3% above the previous month. US total commercial oil inventories saw a build of 10.3 mb or 0.3 mb/d to stand at 1,066.7 mb in August versus theprevious month. Inventories now stand 4.3% and 7.2% above the year-ago level and the five-year average. Despite a2.5 mb draw, crude oil stocks remained at comfortable levels both in terms of volume and forward cover. Gasolinestocks saw a further decline this month but were still well above the year-ago level and the five-year average. Totalcommercial oil stocks in Eur-16 (Eu-15 plus Norway) experienced a draw of 8.4 mb in August from the previous monthbut remained on par with the y-o-y level and 6% higher than the five-year average. The draw concentrated on middledistillate and crude oil inventories. In contrast, total commercial inventories in Japan rose a slight 1 mb to stand at183.9 mb in July, but remained at a deficit to last year’s level and the five-year average. A build in middle distillatestocks and a recovery in crude oil inventories offset the loss in gasoline and residual fuel oil stocks. The demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.9 mb/d, representing a downward revision of0.2 mb/d versus last month. In 2007, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d, representing adecline of 0.8 mb/d versus 2006. On a quarterly basis, the forecast shows that demand for OPEC crude is expected at29.2 mb/d in the first, 27 mb/d in the second, 28 mb/d in the third and 28.4 mb/d in the fourth quarter.