最近幾周，各國(guó)央行對(duì)通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的看法發(fā)生了重大變化。經(jīng)過(guò)三年普遍的擴(kuò)張性政策，重點(diǎn)已從維持增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向抑制通脹。針對(duì)通脹預(yù)期上升的危險(xiǎn)，美國(guó)、歐洲和亞洲都提高了利率。因此，物價(jià)上漲仍在可控范圍內(nèi)，但貨幣當(dāng)局已采取行動(dòng)，以防止能源和大宗商品成本上升導(dǎo)致工資結(jié)算，并導(dǎo)致核心通脹率上升。市場(chǎng)尤其擔(dān)心，在2006年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)，美國(guó)利率可能繼續(xù)升至高于此前預(yù)期的水平，黃金、大宗商品和股票的價(jià)格因此不斷下跌。

緊縮政策的影響可能要到明年才能感受到，2006年多數(shù)地區(qū)的GDP預(yù)測(cè)已經(jīng)上調(diào)，反映出一季度以來(lái)強(qiáng)勁的持續(xù)勢(shì)頭。預(yù)計(jì)第二季度歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)，2006年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期已升至2.0%。2006年對(duì)日本的預(yù)測(cè)也被修正為3.0%，對(duì)中國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)被提高到9.5%。然而，以美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)為例，高利率和高能源成本預(yù)計(jì)將影響今年的消費(fèi)支出，2006年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期已從3.4%下調(diào)至3.3%。在某些情況下，對(duì)暴露于商品價(jià)格的經(jīng)濟(jì)體的預(yù)測(cè)也有所降低?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，這些不同的調(diào)整抵消了對(duì)2006年世界GDP增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)，保持在4.7%不變。

由于擔(dān)心可能出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺，地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)情緒，歐佩克5月初參考價(jià)格籃子達(dá)到68.37美元/桶的歷史高點(diǎn)。然而，隨著本月的進(jìn)展，在供應(yīng)充足的情況下，健康原油庫(kù)存水平緩解了市場(chǎng)的擔(dān)憂，使一攬子原油價(jià)格跌至62.51美元/桶，然后在本月底再次回升。因此，5月份該籃子平均價(jià)格為65.11美元/桶，較上月微增67美元或超過(guò)1%。6月，該籃子繼續(xù)經(jīng)歷波動(dòng)性波動(dòng)，月初升至66.48美元/桶，6月16日則有下降趨勢(shì)，至63.02美元/桶。

過(guò)去幾周，由于國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)量和進(jìn)口增加，美國(guó)汽油庫(kù)存增加，緩和了美國(guó)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的看漲情緒，并給煉油利潤(rùn)率帶來(lái)壓力，特別是重質(zhì)原油。近期，歐洲現(xiàn)貨和期貨產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)也受到美國(guó)汽油庫(kù)存看跌走勢(shì)的影響，但總體而言，5月份的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格已超過(guò)其相應(yīng)的基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油精煉廠利潤(rùn)率，飆升2.08美元，達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的5.80美元/桶，隨著美國(guó)和歐洲煉油廠從維修中恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)，如果當(dāng)前需求增長(zhǎng)的低速度繼續(xù)下去，這些地區(qū)的煉油廠利潤(rùn)率可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步下降。在亞洲，持續(xù)的大規(guī)模維修計(jì)劃可能會(huì)支撐6月份的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和煉油利潤(rùn)率，但隨著煉油廠從7月份開始恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)，它們可能會(huì)失去部分實(shí)力。

歐佩克5月份現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量大幅飆升，平均為1440萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月增長(zhǎng)240萬(wàn)桶/日或20%，較上年同期增長(zhǎng)170萬(wàn)桶/日。上升趨勢(shì)是由于煉油廠開始從季節(jié)性維修中恢復(fù)，預(yù)訂量居高不下。非歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量也有所增加，增加了40萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到780萬(wàn)桶/日。然而，來(lái)自歐佩克的航運(yùn)量下降了140萬(wàn)桶/日，至229萬(wàn)桶/日，部分原因是上個(gè)月歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降。預(yù)訂量的增加導(dǎo)致油輪市場(chǎng)緊張，幾乎所有航線的運(yùn)價(jià)都大幅增長(zhǎng)，扭轉(zhuǎn)了2006年2月以來(lái)的持續(xù)下降趨勢(shì)。在超大型油輪行業(yè)，從中東向東運(yùn)輸原油的運(yùn)費(fèi)平均增長(zhǎng)了20%，而向西運(yùn)輸?shù)挠洼喌倪\(yùn)費(fèi)則增加了三分之一。在類似的趨勢(shì)下，成品油船市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步走強(qiáng)，特別是在東部地區(qū)，現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)平均上漲了100多點(diǎn)或50%左右。

據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2006年世界石油需求將增長(zhǎng)140萬(wàn)桶/日或1.6%，至平均8460萬(wàn)桶/日，與上月的預(yù)測(cè)基本持平。盡管世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)的最大份額主要在發(fā)展中國(guó)家，但有跡象表明，石油需求有所緩解，部分原因是高油價(jià)。與上一季度相比，美國(guó)第二季度的石油需求與3.4%的高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)保持同步，顯示該季度石油需求同比增長(zhǎng)20萬(wàn)桶/日。中東地區(qū)石油需求量小幅增長(zhǎng)3萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到610萬(wàn)桶/日，同比增長(zhǎng)30萬(wàn)桶/日。上半年，中國(guó)強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶動(dòng)了石油需求的增長(zhǎng)，全年石油需求量上調(diào)2萬(wàn)桶/日。目前，中國(guó)的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)近50萬(wàn)桶/日，到2006年達(dá)到平均700萬(wàn)桶/日。

2006年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5140萬(wàn)桶/日，比2005年增加120萬(wàn)桶/日，但較上一次評(píng)估的水平向下修正了84000桶/日。這一調(diào)整反映出加拿大、澳大利亞、安哥拉和毛里塔尼亞的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)低于預(yù)期，原因是一些關(guān)鍵項(xiàng)目的啟動(dòng)或生產(chǎn)受到意外技術(shù)問(wèn)題的影響。然而，這些調(diào)整被其他國(guó)家，特別是阿根廷、俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦的上調(diào)部分抵消。與之前的估計(jì)一致，預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將從6月份開始迅速加速。2006年4月的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，非歐佩克國(guó)家的總供應(yīng)量為5050萬(wàn)桶/日。從5月的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，初步估計(jì)，非歐佩克國(guó)家的供應(yīng)量超過(guò)5100萬(wàn)桶/日，這是該集團(tuán)的一項(xiàng)記錄。5月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為2950萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月下降10萬(wàn)桶/日。

初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，5月份經(jīng)合組織原油進(jìn)口量為3170萬(wàn)桶/日，增長(zhǎng)5.1萬(wàn)桶/日，產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量為1100萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月增加3.7萬(wàn)桶/日。美國(guó)原油進(jìn)口量大幅增長(zhǎng)24.3萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到1000萬(wàn)桶/日，為今年以來(lái)的最高水平。同樣，受混合成分的推動(dòng)，產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量激增約61萬(wàn)桶/日，增幅達(dá)20%。與一年前相比，原油凈進(jìn)口（減去出口）下降了15萬(wàn)桶/日，而產(chǎn)品凈進(jìn)口增加了近69萬(wàn)桶/日。相比之下，由于需求下降，日本原油凈進(jìn)口和產(chǎn)品凈進(jìn)口分別下降了23.5萬(wàn)桶/日和12.8萬(wàn)桶/日。在中國(guó)，4月份原油凈進(jìn)口量增加了8萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到280萬(wàn)桶/日，但仍比上年同期增長(zhǎng)3%。產(chǎn)品凈進(jìn)口量也增加了5.1萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均50萬(wàn)桶/日。印度4月份的原油和產(chǎn)品凈進(jìn)口總量為190萬(wàn)桶/日，比上年同期增加了5.3萬(wàn)桶/日，增幅為3%。

5月份，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存大幅增長(zhǎng)2200萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到102880萬(wàn)桶?？傮w水平比去年和五年平均水平分別高出2%和5%。5月份，原油庫(kù)存較上月減少了30萬(wàn)桶，而汽油庫(kù)存有所增加，增加了108萬(wàn)桶，仍低于一年期和五年期平均水平21020萬(wàn)桶。16歐元（EU-15 plusNorway）的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存下降了13000桶/日，至114820萬(wàn)桶，這是由于原油和中間餾分油的庫(kù)存吸引所致，而汽油庫(kù)存則略有上升。盡管如此，今年這個(gè)時(shí)候的總體庫(kù)存水平仍高于平均區(qū)間的上限3.7%，高于五年平均水平8.4%。日本商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量以較溫和的速度增長(zhǎng)，達(dá)到17160萬(wàn)桶，但仍保持在舒適的水平，分別比去年和五年平均水平高出12.2%和1.4%。由于成品油庫(kù)存總量小幅下降至5810萬(wàn)桶，該項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)完全依賴于原油庫(kù)存。預(yù)計(jì)2006年歐佩克原油需求平均為2870萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月增加10萬(wàn)桶/日。新的預(yù)測(cè)顯示，按季度計(jì)算，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)第一季度為2980萬(wàn)桶/日，第二季度為2820萬(wàn)桶/日，第三季度為2830萬(wàn)桶/日，第四季度為2860萬(wàn)桶/日。

Recent weeks have seen a significant change in the central banks’ perception of inflation risks. Following three yearsof generally expansionary policies, the emphasis has shifted from sustaining growth to restraining inflation. Interestrates have been raised in the USA, Europe and Asia in response to the danger of rising inflation expectations. Thusfar, price increases remain under control but monetary authorities have acted to forestall any acceleration in case risesin energy and commodity costs should feed through into wage settlements and lead to increases in core rates ofinflation. Markets are particularly concerned that US interest rates may continue to increase to higher levels thanpreviously anticipated through the remainder of 2006 and prices of gold, commodities and equities have fallensharply as a result.

  The impact of the tighter policies may not be felt until next year and the 2006 GDP forecasts for most regions havebeen raised, reflecting the strong ongoing momentum from the first quarter. The Euro-zone is expected to see acontinued improvement in the second quarter and the growth forecast for 2006 has been increased to 2.0%. The 2006forecast for Japan has also been revised up to 3.0% and the forecast for China has been raised to 9.5%. In the case ofthe US economy, however, higher interest rates and high energy costs are expected to affect consumer spending thisyear and the growth forecast for 2006 has been cut to 3.3% from 3.4%. Projections for economies exposed tocommodity prices have also been reduced in some cases. Overall, these various adjustments cancel out and theforecast for world GDP growth in 2006 is unchanged at 4.7%. 

The OPEC Reference Basket early in May peaked at an all-time high of $68.37/b as geopolitical tensions continuedto dominate market sentiment amid fears of a possible supply shortfall. However, as the month progressed, healthycrude oil stock levels amid ample supplies eased market concern, sending the Basket as low as $62.51/b beforepicking up again at the end of the month. As a result, the Basket average $65.11/b in May, a marginal increase of 67or over 1% from the previous month. In June, the Basket continued to experience volatile movement rising to$66.48/b early in the month before trending downward to stand at $ 63.02/b on 16 June. 

US gasoline stock-builds over the last couple of weeks as a result of higher domestic production and imports havesoftened the bullish sentiment in the US product market and put pressure on refining margins, especially heavy crudeoil. European spot and futures product markets have also been affected recently by the bearish movement in USgasoline stocks, but generally product prices in May have overtaken their corresponding benchmark Brent crudeallowing refinery margins to surge by $2.08 to record $5.80/b. Looking ahead, with the return of refineries frommaintenance in the USA and Europe, refinery margins in these areas may soften further if the current low pace ofdemand growth continues. In Asia, the ongoing heavy maintenance schedule could support product prices andrefinery margins in June, but they may lose part of their strength as refineries come back onstream from July onward. 

OPEC spot fixtures surged sharply in May to average 14.4 mb/d, up 2.4 mb/d or 20% from the previous month and1.7 mb/d higher than a year earlier. The uptrend was a result of high bookings as refineries began to return fromseasonal maintenance. Non-OPEC spot fixtures also increased, rising 0.4 mb/d to stand at 7.8 mb/d. However,sailings from OPEC moved down 1.4 mb/d to 22.9 mb/d due partly to the decline in OPEC fixtures during theprevious month. The increase in bookings translated into a tight tanker market where almost all routes saw significantgrowth in freight rates and reversed the continuous downward trend displayed since February 2006. In the VLCCsector, freight rates for shipping crude oil from the Middle East to the east increased on average by 20% andincreased by one-third for tankers moving to the west. Following a similar trend, the product tanker marketstrengthened further, especially in the east where spot freight rates increased by more than 100 points or around 50%on average.

  World oil demand in 2006 is forecast to grow 1.4 mb/d or 1.6% to average 84.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from lastmonth’s estimate. Even though the largest share of the increase in world oil demand growth is mainly in theDeveloping Countries, signs indicate an easing in oil demand, partly due to the high oil prices. In contrast to theprevious quarter, US oil demand in the second quarter is keeping up with the high 3.4% economic growth, displayinga y-o-y increase of 0.2 mb/d in that quarter. In the Middle East, oil demand has been revised up a slight 30,000 b/d tostand at 6.1 mb/d, representing a y-o-y increase of 0.3 mb/d. China’s strong economic boom has increased oil demandin the first half, resulting in an upward revision of 20,000 b/d for the entire year. Chinese oil demand is now expectedto grow by almost 0.5 mb/d to average 7 mb/d in 2006. 

In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.4 mb/d, representing an increase of 1.2 mb/d over 2005, but adownward revision of 84,000 b/d versus the previous assessment. The adjustment reflects lower-than-expectedproduction growth from Canada, Australia, Angola, and Mauritania due to unexpected technical issues affecting thestart-up or production of some key projects. However, these adjustments have been partly offset by upward revisions inother countries, particularly Argentina, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Growth is expected to accelerate rapidly from Juneonwards, consistent with previous estimates. Preliminary data for April 2006 puts total non-OPEC supply at 50.5 mb/d.Looking at May, preliminary estimates indicate that non-OPEC supply exceeded 51 mb/d, which is a record for thegroup. Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.5 mb/d in May, a drop of 100,000 b/d from last month.

Preliminary data puts OECD crude oil imports for May at 31.7 mb/d, up 51,000 b/d, and product imports at11.0 mb/d, a gain of 37,000 b/d over the previous month. US crude oil imports showed a significant growth of243,000 b/d to hit 10.0 mb/d, their highest level so far this year. Similarly, product imports surged by around 610,000b/d or 20%, driven by blending components. Compared to a year earlier, net crude oil imports (minus exports)declined by 150,000 b/d, while net product imports increased nearly 690,000 b/d. In contrast, Japan’s net crude oiland product imports fell 235,000 b/d and 128,000 b/d respectively, due to lower demand. In China, net crude oilimports in April increased by 80,000 b/d to 2.8 mb/d, but remained 3% higher than a year earlier. Net productimports also increased by 51,000 b/d to average 0.5 mb/d. India’s total net crude oil and product imports in Aprilaveraged 1.9 mb/d, an increase of 53,000 b/d or 3% compared to a year earlier. 

US commercial oil stocks experienced a substantial build of 22 mb to stand at 1,028.8 mb in May. The overall levelwas 2% and 5% higher than the year-ago level and the five-year average. Crude oil stocks declined by 0.3 mb in Mayfrom the previous month while gasoline inventories experienced a build, rising by 10.8 mb leaving the level at210.2 mb, which is still below the one-year and the five-year average. Commercial oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU-15 plusNorway) fell by 13,000 b/d to 1,148.2 mb which stemmed from stock-draws on both crude oil and middle distillates,while gasoline inventories experienced a modest rise. Nevertheless, the overall inventory level remained at 3.7%above the upper end of the average range for this time of year and 8.4% above the five-year average. Totalcommercial oil inventories in Japan rose at a more moderate rate to reach 171.6 mb, but remains at comfortable levelsof 12.2% and 1.4% above last year and the five-year average, respectively. The build relied entirely on crude oilstocks as total product inventories inched down to 58.1 mb. The estimated demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.7 mb/d, representing an upward revision of0.1 mb/d versus last month. On a quarterly basis, the new forecast shows that demand for OPEC crude is expected at29.8 mb/d in the first quarter, 28.2 mb/d in the second, 28.3 mb/d in the third and 28.6 mb/d in the fourth.