4月份，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子上漲4.42美元/桶，漲幅10%，至平均50.20美元/桶。物價(jià)上漲是由于在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的繁榮跡象下，市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的信心有所改善。股市波動(dòng)和美元走軟促使投資涌入能源期貨，盡管需求持續(xù)惡化，但這種改善還是出現(xiàn)了。進(jìn)入5月份，這一籃子貨幣繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)，5月12日達(dá)到56.76美元/桶。2009年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率進(jìn)一步下調(diào)了0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，但下降了1.4%。歐元區(qū)陷入了更深的衰退；結(jié)果預(yù)測(cè)被修正為下降1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，降幅為4.2%。盡管出現(xiàn)了一些積極的跡象，但預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)仍將以2.8%的速度下降，較之前的預(yù)測(cè)下降0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。中國(guó)和印度的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期分別保持在6.5%和5.0%不變?？偟膩碚f，目前的積極勢(shì)頭是否可持續(xù)，以及各國(guó)央行和政府采取的措施是否足以支持經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，仍有待觀察。據(jù)估計(jì)，2008年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率下降了30萬桶/日，與之前的評(píng)估基本持平。由于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)惡化，2009年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)已下調(diào)20萬桶/日，目前為160萬桶/日。今年第一季度，全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)率創(chuàng)下歷史新低，為-240萬桶/日。約95%的石油需求下降歸因于經(jīng)合組織（OECD），而非OECD的增長(zhǎng)基本保持平穩(wěn)。據(jù)估計(jì)，2008年非歐佩克的石油供應(yīng)下降了20萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平。2009年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)20萬桶/日，這意味著較上一份報(bào)告略有下降。調(diào)整的原因是公布的項(xiàng)目推遲，實(shí)際生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)公布，降幅大于預(yù)期。今年4月，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為2810萬桶/日，較上月增加20萬桶/日。4月下旬，美國(guó)汽油庫(kù)存減少，季節(jié)性煉油業(yè)務(wù)好轉(zhuǎn)導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量減少，為產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)人氣和4月煉油利潤(rùn)率提供了支撐。然而，由于對(duì)中間餾分油的需求持續(xù)放緩，且?guī)缀鯖]有高需求跡象，近期成品油市場(chǎng)的積極發(fā)展可能短暫，因此無法支撐未來幾個(gè)月的原油價(jià)格。歐佩克4月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月增長(zhǎng)了2.4%。來自歐佩克維爾的航班略低，但在美國(guó)的航班增長(zhǎng)了3%。4月份，油輪市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了今年以來最疲軟的一個(gè)月。持續(xù)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和歐佩克減產(chǎn)再次成為油輪市場(chǎng)疲軟的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。盡管4月份海上運(yùn)輸量有所增加，但臟油運(yùn)費(fèi)與3月份相比下降了28%。同期，清潔現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)下降了24%，蘇伊士以東市場(chǎng)更為疲軟。4月份，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存激增3400萬桶，達(dá)到10870萬桶，以五年平均值計(jì)算，導(dǎo)致了105MB的巨大過剩。這座大樓的原油儲(chǔ)量接近1500萬桶，也就是每天50萬桶，創(chuàng)下了自20世紀(jì)90年代中期以來的最高紀(jì)錄，達(dá)到37500萬桶。歐洲（歐盟15國(guó)加挪威）的石油總儲(chǔ)量下降了860萬桶，但比去年同期增加了3000萬桶。日本商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存符合季節(jié)性趨勢(shì)，3月份下降530萬桶，但仍保持在177萬桶的水平，2008年對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求估計(jì)平均為3100萬桶/日，較上年下降了040萬桶/日。2009年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為2880萬桶/日，較上年同期減少220萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket gained $4.42/b or 10% to average $50.20/b in April. Prices movedhigher on improved sentiment over the economic recovery amid prosperous indicators. Equity marketfluctuations and the weakening US dollar prompted an influx of investment into the energy futures.This improvement came despite the persistent deterioration in demand. The Basket continued tostrengthen into May, reaching $56.76/b on 12 May.Growth for the global economy in 2009 has been revised down further by 0.6 percentage points tonow show a decline of 1.4%. The Euro-zone slipped deeper into recession; as a result the forecast hasbeen revised down by 1.2 pp for a decline of 4.2%. Despite some positive signs, the US is stillexpected to decline at a rate of 2.8%, down 0.2 pp from the previous forecast. Growth expectationsfor China and India remain unchanged at 6.5% and 5.0% respectively. In general, it remains to beseen whether the current positive momentum is sustainable and whether the measures taken bycentral banks and governments will be enough to support an economic recovery.World oil demand growth is estimated to have declined by 0.3 mb/d in 2008, broadlyunchanged from the previous assessment. The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2009 hasbeen revised down by 0.2 mb/d to now stand at 1.6 mb/d, due to the continued deterioration inthe world economy. Global oil demand growth reached a record low at -2.4 mb/d in the firstquarter. Around 95% of the total decline in oil demand is attributed to OECD while non-OECDgrowth has remained roughly flat.Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have declined by 0.2 mb/d in 2008, unchanged from theprevious report. In 2009, non-OPEC supply is now expected to grow 0.2 mb/d, indicating a slightdownward revision from the last report. The adjustment was due to announced projects delays, therelease of actual production data and heavier-than-expected declines. In April, total OPEC crudeproduction averaged 28.1 mb/d, an increase of 0.2 mb/d over the previous month.Gasoline stock draws in the US in the latter part of April and reduced output due to seasonal refineryturnarounds have provided support for sentiment in the product markets and refining margins inApril. However, due to persisting slowing demand for middle distillates and few signs of highergasoline demand, the recent positive developments in the product markets are likely to be short-livedand would therefore not be able to support crude prices over the coming months.OPEC spot fixtures in April rose by 2.4% compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPECwere marginally lower, but arrivals in the US gained 3%. In April, the tanker market witnessed theweakest month so far this year. The continued global economic crisis and OPEC production cutswere once again the dominant drivers behind the weakness in the tanker market. Despite increasedstoring at sea in April, dirty freight rates ended the month with a 28% decline compared to March.Clean spot freight rates declined by 24% over the same period with a much weaker market to the Eastof Suez.US commercial oil stocks surged 34 mb in April to stand at 1,087 mb, resulting in a huge overhangof 105 mb with the five-year average. Crude oil accounted for nearly 15 mb or 0.5 mb/d to the buildand hit a new record of 375 mb, the highest since the mid-1990s. European (EU-15 plus Norway)total oil stocks fell 8.6 mb but were 30 mb above a year earlier. Japan’s commercial oil stocksfollowed their seasonal trend and dropped 5.3 mb in March but remained very comfortable at177 mb.The demand for OPEC crude oil in 2008 is estimated to have averaged 31.0 mb/d, a decline of0.4 mb/d from the previous year. In 2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average28.8 mb/d, a decline of 2.2 mb/d from a year earlier.