世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)是歐元區(qū)。第三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年增長(zhǎng)率僅為1.2%，這表明自第一季度以來增長(zhǎng)持續(xù)放緩。日本第三季度的結(jié)果也低于預(yù)期，盡管大部分疲弱是由于資本支出波動(dòng)造成的。美國(guó)公布的第三季度數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)，由于出口和零售銷售強(qiáng)勁，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)有一些需求放緩的跡象，但總體增速放緩的格局并不明顯。中國(guó)10月份的零售額增長(zhǎng)了14%，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)了15%，這一增速僅略低于今年早些時(shí)候的水平。10月底，中國(guó)9年來首次加息，表明“軟著陸”尚未得到保證，通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在。2005年的前景受到油價(jià)進(jìn)一步上漲的影響。9月，預(yù)測(cè)人士一致預(yù)計(jì)，2005年，按水處理指數(shù)計(jì)算，油價(jià)將穩(wěn)定在平均約37-38美元/桶的水平。由于10月份市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁，分析師們修改了這一預(yù)測(cè)，因此，目前大多數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ)是42-43美元/桶的平均價(jià)格。普遍認(rèn)為油價(jià)上漲10%，這使世界GDP增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期降低了0.1%至4%。歐元區(qū)2005年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期已下調(diào)至1.8%，因?yàn)樽罱鼩W元升值將減少歐洲出口。對(duì)日本的預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)了0.4%至1.6%，此前兩個(gè)季度日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)令人失望，其他亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體也出現(xiàn)疲弱跡象。預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將經(jīng)歷0.1%的小幅下降，仍將受益于2004年強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)頭。因此，2005年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)3.1%，與20年平均水平持平。油價(jià)上漲將傾向于降低中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，但2005年的主要因素將是更為嚴(yán)格的貨幣政策帶來的不確定影響。2005年，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)測(cè)保持在7.6%不變。10月份，歐佩克的一籃子參考貨幣繼續(xù)朝著歷史高點(diǎn)努力，隨后在本月下旬穩(wěn)步回落。由于美國(guó)墨西哥灣沿岸生產(chǎn)中斷持續(xù)，以及尼日利亞隨后撤走的阿斯特里克（astrike）威脅，市場(chǎng)對(duì)冬季燃料供應(yīng)緊張的擔(dān)憂將一攬子價(jià)格推高至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平。10月21日，日籃子價(jià)格最高達(dá)到46.61美元/桶，而月平均價(jià)格較上月上漲約5美元，創(chuàng)下45.37美元/桶的紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)。截至10月的年平均價(jià)格也創(chuàng)下35.76美元/桶的新高，較2003年同期上漲7.66美元。到11月初，石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）產(chǎn)量的增加以及由此產(chǎn)生的庫存增加有助于抑制油價(jià)，導(dǎo)致截至目前的月平均價(jià)格大幅下跌4.83美元/桶，而今年迄今已升至35.95美元/桶。由于冬季前的維護(hù)計(jì)劃，煉油廠的運(yùn)營(yíng)量下降，特別是在美國(guó)和歐洲，已收緊全球蒸餾油市場(chǎng)，并在10月份提振了蒸餾油與基準(zhǔn)原油的價(jià)格差距。較低的價(jià)格也導(dǎo)致美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的庫存提前減少。然而，隨著煉油廠的關(guān)閉和最大餾出模式的切換以及整個(gè)相對(duì)溫和的天氣的結(jié)束，對(duì)冬季加熱油短缺的擔(dān)憂有所緩解，導(dǎo)致蒸餾產(chǎn)品價(jià)格近期下降。但仍有人擔(dān)心煉油廠能否維持接近產(chǎn)能的運(yùn)營(yíng)，以確保充足的熱油供應(yīng)，而且看來蒸餾產(chǎn)品將在未來幾個(gè)月推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)。歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量在10月份強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)了15%或200萬桶/日，五年來首次達(dá)到近1360萬桶/日。歐佩克在全球現(xiàn)貨租賃中的份額達(dá)到67.5%。由于冬季原油需求激增和油輪供應(yīng)不足，原油運(yùn)價(jià)在10月份大幅上漲后，平均每月達(dá)到30年來的最高水平。阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)出現(xiàn)了驚人的增長(zhǎng)，而主題航線內(nèi)的運(yùn)價(jià)飆升了192點(diǎn)，達(dá)到了WS392。成品油船市場(chǎng)也仍然非常緊張，特別是在中東向東航線上，由于日本進(jìn)口激增，運(yùn)價(jià)上漲了154個(gè)點(diǎn)，達(dá)到每月平均WS368。由于中國(guó)下半年消費(fèi)放緩，加上經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)步伐放緩，預(yù)計(jì)FSU的表觀需求將下降，因此本年度世界石油需求預(yù)測(cè)略有下調(diào)。2005年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期再次被調(diào)整，以適應(yīng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的下降，中國(guó)仍然是明年的外卡。按第二來源計(jì)算，歐佩克10月份原油產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為3023萬桶/日，比9月份修正后的數(shù)字增加0.08萬桶/日。2004年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量估計(jì)為4991萬桶/日，比2003年的4859萬桶/日高出132萬桶/日。2005年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到5112萬桶/日，比2004年的預(yù)測(cè)增加121萬桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的凈出口量估計(jì)分別為558萬桶/日和649萬桶/日，預(yù)計(jì)2004年和2005年將分別增至732萬桶/日和776萬桶/日。2004年10月1日至29日期間，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫存出現(xiàn)了130萬桶或0.05萬桶/日的反季節(jié)增長(zhǎng)。截至11月12日的每周數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)一步證實(shí)了這一趨勢(shì)，尤其是原油。這使得總?cè)萘窟_(dá)到9637萬桶，比去年的水平低了73萬桶或不到1%。在16歐元區(qū)（EU plusNorway），石油庫存總量顯示出輕微的季節(jié)性下降，為17萬桶/日，達(dá)到1090.6萬桶，比去年的記錄高出約2%。截至2004年9月底，日本商業(yè)石油庫存總量為18340萬桶，比8月份高出約8%，即47萬桶/日，但仍比去年同期低10%。

The weak link in the world economy is the Euro-zone. Third quarter GDP growth was only 1.2% at an annual rate,which indicates a continued slowdown in growth since the first quarter. The outcome for Japan in the third quarter wasalso below expectations although most of the weakness was due to fluctuations in volatile capital expenditure. Incontrast, the US data for the third quarter confirmed that the economic expansion continued at a solid pace thanks tostrong exports and retail sales. There are some signs of moderating demand in China but no overall pattern of slowergrowth is evident. Chinese retail sales in October grew by 14% and industrial production by 15%, rates that were onlyslightly lower than those achieved earlier in the year. At the end of October, China raised interest rates for the firsttime in nine years, indicating that a ‘soft landing’ is not yet assured and that inflationary risks remain. The outlook for 2005 has been affected by the further rise in the oil price. In September the consensus of forecastersexpected the oil price to settle at an average level of about $37-38/b on a WTI basis for 2005. The strength of themarket in October led analysts to revise this projection, so that an average price of $42-43/b now underlies mostforecasts. This 10% increase in the consensus oil price assumption has reduced the forecast of world GDP growth by0.1% to 4%. The Euro-zone growth forecast for 2005 has been cut to 1.8% as the recent appreciation of the euro will reduceEuropean exports. The forecast for Japan has been cut by 0.4% to 1.6% following two quarters of disappointinggrowth and signs of weakness in other Asian economies. The US economy is expected to experience a smallerreduction in the growth forecast of 0.1% and should still benefit from the strong economic momentum of 2004. As aresult, the US economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2005, in line with the 20-year average. Higher oil prices willtend to reduce Chinese growth but the main factor for 2005 will be the uncertain impact of a more restrictive monetarypolicy. The growth rate forecast for China is unchanged at 7.6% for 2005. The OPEC Reference Basket in October continued to strive towards all-time highs before easing steadily late in themonth. Concerns over tight winter fuel supplies amid lingering production disruption from the US Gulf Coast and astrike threat — later withdrawn — in Nigeria pushed the Basket price to record levels. The daily Basket price saw itscurrent peak of $46.61/b on 21 October, while the monthly average jumped about $5 over the previous month to arecord high of $45.37/b. The yearly average to October also set a new high of $35.76/b, up $7.66 over the same periodin 2003. By the start of November, rising OPEC production and the resultant stock build helped to dampen prices,causing the month-to-date average to drop a hefty $4.83/b, while the year-to-date increased to $35.95/b. Lower refinery runs as a result of the pre-winter maintenance schedule, particularly in the USA and Europe, havetightened the distillate market around the globe and boosted the distillate crack versus benchmark crudes in October.Lower runs have also caused an earlier than normal stock draw in the US market. However, with the completion ofrefinery turnarounds and a switch to maximum distillate mode as well as the relatively mild weather across the board,the fear of a winter heating oil shortage has eased, resulting in a recent downtrend in distillate product prices. Butsome concern remains about the ability of refiners to sustain operations at near capacity to ensure an ample supply ofheating oil, and it seems that distillate products will drive the market in the next few months. OPEC spot fixtures experienced a robust increase of 15% or 2 mb/d in October to stand at nearly 13.6 mb/d for thefirst time in five years. OPEC’s share of global spot chartering reached 67.5%. On a monthly average, freight rates forcrude oil reached a 30-year high after having increased sharply during October thanks to surging winter crude oildemand and lack of tanker availability. Aframax witnessed a spectacular increase, while freight rates within theMediterranean surged by 192 points to WS392. The product tanker market also remained very tight, especially on theMiddle East eastbound route, where freight rates increased by 154 points to reach a monthly average of WS368 as aresult of surging imports by Japan. The world oil demand estimate for the current year has been slightly adjusted downwards to account for the slowdownin Chinese consumption in the second half of the year as well as an expected lower apparent demand in the FSU due tothe lower pace of economic activity. World oil demand growth estimates for 2005 have once again been adjusted toaccount for the lower rate of global economic growth, with China remaining the wild card for next year. OPEC crude oil production in October, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 30.23 mb/d, an increase of0.08 mb/d over the revised September figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 is estimated at 49.91 mb/d, which is1.32 mb/d over the 48.59 mb/d estimated for 2003. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 51.12 mb/d, anincrease of 1.21 mb/d over the 2004 forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.58 mb/d and6.49 mb/d respectively, and expected to rise to 7.32 mb/d and 7.76 mb/d in 2004 and 2005 respectively. A contra-seasonal build of 1.3 mb, or 0.05 mb/d, has been observed in US commercial oil stocks during the period1-29 October 2004. The weekly data up to 12 November further confirms this trend, particularly for crude oil. Thisbrings the total to 963.7 mb which is 7.3 mb or less than 1% below the level registered last year. In Eur-16 (EU plusNorway), total oil stocks showed a slight seasonal draw of 0.17 mb/d to stand at 1,090.6 mb, which is about 2% higherthan that registered last year. At the end of September 2004, total commercial oil stocks in Japan stood at 183.4 mb,0.47 mb/d or about 8% above the August level, but still 10% below the year-ago figure.