今年9月，歐佩克一籃子參考數(shù)據(jù)總結(jié)了墨西哥灣風(fēng)暴和煉油廠停產(chǎn)的上升趨勢(shì)，而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降低利率支持了市場(chǎng)情緒。對(duì)墨西哥輸油管道的攻擊增加了看漲的勢(shì)頭。盡管歐佩克（OPEC）采取了增產(chǎn)措施，但該組織對(duì)季節(jié)性燃料的關(guān)注仍停留在政治形勢(shì)發(fā)展再次引發(fā)對(duì)季節(jié)性儲(chǔ)備前可能出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺的擔(dān)憂之際。石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）當(dāng)月平均參考價(jià)格為74.18美元/桶，較上月上漲5.47美元或近8%。10月份，該籃子的剩余價(jià)值在2007年10月12日創(chuàng)下77.46美元/桶的新高。2007年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率上調(diào)0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至5.1%，主要原因是中國(guó)（+0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）和印度（+0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）的增長(zhǎng)率上調(diào)。2008年，由于美國(guó)（0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）、歐元區(qū)（0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）和日本（0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率向下修正，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率也下調(diào)了0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，至4.9%。雖然美國(guó)降息有助于穩(wěn)定金融市場(chǎng)，但經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在。股市收復(fù)了所有損失，并創(chuàng)下新高，但信貸市場(chǎng)的正?；赃h(yuǎn)未完成。美國(guó)和歐元區(qū)制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)放緩的跡象，與亞洲（尤其是中國(guó)）持續(xù)走強(qiáng)形成鮮明對(duì)比。日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)似乎將在2007年第三季度復(fù)蘇。2007年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)為130萬桶/日或1.5%，經(jīng)合組織對(duì)不同季度的修正有所抵消。第三季度通常是世界石油需求的淡季，尤其是經(jīng)合組織。高汽油零售價(jià)格和惡劣天氣減少了9月份的汽油和柴油消費(fèi)。9月份，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的石油需求增長(zhǎng)最快，特別是中國(guó)、印度和中東。由于北半球預(yù)計(jì)將迎來正常的冬季，預(yù)計(jì)第四季度世界石油需求將緊隨季節(jié)性高消費(fèi)。預(yù)計(jì)燃料和取暖用油需求強(qiáng)勁。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，第四季度世界石油總需求增長(zhǎng)率為180萬桶/日，平均為8710萬桶/日。2008年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)130萬桶/日，平均為8710萬桶/日，與上次預(yù)測(cè)基本持平。由于預(yù)計(jì)明年夏季駕車季節(jié)將放緩，北美第三季度石油需求增幅小幅下調(diào)，以反映運(yùn)輸燃料消耗減弱。2007年，非歐佩克成員國(guó)的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)比上一年略有下降，為80萬桶/日。這一調(diào)整在很大程度上是由于墨西哥和巴西在第三和第四季度的供應(yīng)量下調(diào)所致。2008年，非歐佩克成員國(guó)的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)經(jīng)歷了小幅上升，達(dá)到110萬桶/日，因?yàn)槟壳暗囊恍┬抻喴蜒娱L(zhǎng)到2008年，更多的數(shù)據(jù)已可用于項(xiàng)目啟動(dòng)和產(chǎn)能提升。2007年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的產(chǎn)量略有增加，至30萬桶/日，2008年的數(shù)字為50萬桶/日。9月份，歐佩克原油平均產(chǎn)量為306萬桶/日，較上個(gè)月增加約245300桶/日，伊拉克的產(chǎn)量較上個(gè)月大幅反彈，從166300桶/日增至平均220萬桶/日幾年來，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)在9月份經(jīng)歷了一次急劇的向下調(diào)整，對(duì)Entipretroleum綜合體產(chǎn)生了不利影響。然而，由于大西洋盆地較重的季節(jié)性維護(hù)和9月下半月出現(xiàn)的與風(fēng)暴有關(guān)的擔(dān)憂，今年這一趨勢(shì)已大大減少，增加了煉油廠受損的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并為產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)提供了支持，減緩了煉油利潤(rùn)率的下降。隨著冬季的臨近，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的勢(shì)頭可能進(jìn)一步改善，為煉油廠的經(jīng)濟(jì)和原油價(jià)格提供支持。然而，主要的不確定因素仍然是天氣狀況，特別是大西洋盆地的天氣狀況，以及美國(guó)煉油廠的運(yùn)營(yíng)水平。9月份，由于亞洲煉油廠的維護(hù)，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量減少了2%，平均為1220萬桶/日，而非歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量增加了13%，平均為690萬桶/日。歐佩克的航運(yùn)量在9月份幾乎保持穩(wěn)定，較上月小幅增加了80000桶/日左右，9月份，由于供應(yīng)充足，加之9月上半月油輪需求疲軟，原油運(yùn)輸?shù)默F(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)從穩(wěn)定到下降。9月下旬，受歐洲石油公司的決定以及煉油廠維修后需求的影響，活動(dòng)水平有所上升，但還沒有達(dá)到現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)上升的水平。超大型油輪板塊基本穩(wěn)定，從中東向東和向西分別為WS60和WS46。受原油和產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口的推動(dòng)，美國(guó)9月份石油進(jìn)口總額下降逾25萬桶/日。受煉油廠檢修影響，日本9月份原油進(jìn)口量下降約12.7萬桶/日，至平均410萬桶/日。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，8月份，中國(guó)原油進(jìn)口量因煉油廠檢修而下降5%，至330萬桶/日，而產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量下降主要是由于國(guó)際油價(jià)高企導(dǎo)致燃油進(jìn)口量下降。印度8月份的原油和產(chǎn)品凈進(jìn)口總量平均為200萬桶/日，比上個(gè)月減少了10萬桶/日，降幅為4%，這是由于國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)品銷售下降所致。美國(guó)商業(yè)股9月份小幅下跌，但仍比5年平均水平高出約1500萬股，其中crudeinventories位于5年期區(qū)間的上端。餾分油庫(kù)存繼續(xù)保持季節(jié)性趨勢(shì)，比5年平均水平高出530萬桶至400萬桶，而汽油庫(kù)存仍低于5年平均水平的較低水平。在歐盟16國(guó)（15歐元加上斯諾威），石油庫(kù)存總量下降了1200萬至1133萬桶，但仍高于5年平均水平，尤其是原油和中間餾分油。日本8月份的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存增加了400萬桶，但9月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，庫(kù)存增加了1300萬桶左右，其中四分之三是原油。預(yù)計(jì)2007年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3110萬桶/日，比上年增加0.10萬桶/日；2008年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3080萬桶/日，下降0.20萬桶/日。

In September, the OPEC Reference Basket resumed the upward trend on storms in the Gulf of Mexico and refinery outages,while the lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve supported market sentiment. An attack on Mexico’s pipeline addedto the bullish momentum. Despite OPEC’s move to increase production, concern over seasonal fuels remained at a time whengeopolitical developments revived fear of a potential supply shortfall ahead of seasonal stockpiling. The OPEC ReferenceBasket averaged the month at $74.18/b for a gain of $5.47 or nearly 8% over the previous month. The Basket remainedvolatile in October reaching a new record-high of $77.46/b on 12 October 2007. World economic growth in 2007 has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 5.1% mainly on upward revisions togrowth in China (+0.4 pp) and India (+0.3 pp). For 2008, growth was revised down by a similar 0.1 pp to 4.9% due todownward revisions to growth in the US (-0.3 pp), the Euro-zone (-0.1 pp) and Japan (-0.1 pp). While the US interest rate cutserved to calm financial markets, the risk of an economic slowdown remains. Stock markets recovered all the losses andmoved to new record highs but credit markets’ normalisation is still far from complete. Signs of a slowdown in the USand Euro-zone in both the manufacturing and services sectors contrast with continued strength in Asia, especially inChina. Japanese growth seems set to recover in the third quarter of 2007. World oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, with offsetting revisions to different quarters in OECD.The third quarter is normally a low season for world oil demand, especially in the OECD. High gasoline retail prices and therainy weather reduced gasoline and diesel consumption in September. September oil demand grew the most in the DevelopingCountries, especially in China, India and the Middle East. World oil demand in the fourth quarter is estimated to followtypically high seasonal consumption due to the expected normal winter in the Northern hemisphere. Fuel and heating oildemand is forecast to be strong. Total world oil demand growth in the fourth quarter is forecast at 1.8 mb/d to average87.1 mb/d. In 2008, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d to average 87.1 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the lastestimate. Due to the expected slower summer driving season next year, North America’s third-quarter oil demand growth wasrevised down slightly to reflect weaker transport fuel consumption. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2007 has been revised down slightly to stand at 0.8 mb/d over the previous year. Theadjustments were due to a large part to downward revisions to Mexico and Brazil supply in the third and fourth quarters. For2008, non-OPEC supply growth experienced a minor upward revision to stand at 1.1 mb/d as some of the current yearrevisions have been extended into 2008 and more data have become available for projects startups and ramp-ups. Growth inOPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils has been revised up slightly to 0.3 mb/d in 2007 while the 2008 figure was left at0.5 mb/d. In September, OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.6 mb/d, a rise of around 245,300 b/d from the previousmonth, as production from Iraq saw a significant rebound of 166,300 b/d to average 2.2 mb/d. Over the last few years, product markets experienced a sharp downward correction in September, adversely affecting the entirepetroleum complex. However, this trend has been significantly diminished this year due to heavier seasonal maintenance in theAtlantic Basin and storm-related concerns which picked up in the second half of September, raising the risk of damage torefineries and provided support for product markets and slowed the decline in refining margins. With the approaching winterseason, the momentum of the product markets may improve further, providing support for refinery economics and crudeprices. However, the major wild cards continue to be weather conditions, particularly in Atlantic Basin, and the refineryoperation level in the US. OPEC spot fixtures decreased by 2% in September to average 12.2 mb/d on limited activities due especially to Asian refinerymaintenance, while non-OPEC spot fixtures increased by 13% to average 6.9 mb/d. OPEC sailings were nearly steady inSeptember, with a minor increase of around 80,000 b/d from the previous month, to stand at 23.2 mb/d. Spot freight rates forshipping crude oil were between steady to moving downward in September due to plentiful supply and sluggish tankerdemand in the first half of September. The level of activities increased in the second half of September, on the back of theOPEC decision as well as post-maintenance refinery demand, yet not to the level to mark an increase in spot freight rates. TheVLCC sector was mostly steady with rates of WS60 and WS46 from the Middle East to the east and west, respectively. US total oil imports declined by more than 0.25 mb/d in September, driven by crude oil and product imports. Japan’scrude oil imports in September fell by around 127,000 b/d to average 4.1 mb/d on the back of refinery maintenance.Preliminary data shows China’s crude oil imports in August declined 5% to 3.3 mb/d due to refinery turnarounds, whileproduct imports fell mainly on the decline of fuel oil imports owing to high international prices. India’s total net crudeoil and product imports in August averaged 2.0 mb/d, a decrease of 0.1 mb/d or 4% compared to a month earlier, withthe decrease coming on the back of lower domestic product sales. US commercial stocks fell slightly in September but remained around 15 mb above the five year average with crudeinventories standing at the upper end of the five-year range. Distillate stocks continued their seasonal trend, rising 5.3 mb to4 mb above the five-year average, while gasoline remained below the lower end of the five-year range. In EU-16 (Eur-15 plusNorway), total oil stocks fell 12 mb to 1,133 mb but remained comfortable above the five-year average, particularly crude oiland middle distillates. Japan’s commercial oil stocks rose 4 mb in August but preliminary data for September show stocksfalling by around 13 mb with crude oil accounting for three-quarters of the draw. The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 31.1 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.2 mb/d.