委內(nèi)瑞拉已經(jīng)成為石油市場(chǎng)的供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這不僅是因?yàn)樗媾R著多重經(jīng)營(yíng)挑戰(zhàn)，從嚴(yán)重的電力危機(jī)到石油出口碼頭和煉油廠的故障，更重要的是因?yàn)榻衲暌呀?jīng)遭受的石油產(chǎn)量急劇下降的螺旋形影響。值得注意的是，根據(jù)歐佩克（OPEC）的月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告（MOMR），政府承認(rèn)5月份原油產(chǎn)量環(huán)比下降12萬桶/日，同比下降11%。截至6月，委內(nèi)瑞拉今年迄今已下降近23萬桶/日，而且還在繼續(xù)下降。顯然，委內(nèi)瑞拉是油價(jià)下跌引發(fā)的全球石油供應(yīng)向下調(diào)整的核心。 由于該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)需求造成的巨大損失，石油生產(chǎn)的損失尚未轉(zhuǎn)化為石油出口的相應(yīng)下降。但上半年出口的穩(wěn)定掩蓋了一個(gè)不斷惡化的趨勢(shì)，6月份的出口已經(jīng)比去年平均水平低30多萬桶/日。盡管所有關(guān)于委內(nèi)瑞拉的頭條新聞都在喧囂，但對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)來說，最嚴(yán)重的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然擺在前面。 油價(jià)暴跌給國(guó)家石油公司PDVSA的財(cái)務(wù)帶來的壓力是石油生產(chǎn)挑戰(zhàn)的核心。到目前為止，政府在分配可用的美元流動(dòng)性時(shí)優(yōu)先考慮償還債券債務(wù)，因?yàn)閾?dān)心如果不這樣做，可能對(duì)公司的生產(chǎn)和出口造成比以往更嚴(yán)重的影響。即便如此，PDVSA美元流動(dòng)性的壓力仍在削弱。 PDVSA的現(xiàn)金流狀況非常嚴(yán)峻，即使大幅削減對(duì)政府的美元轉(zhuǎn)移，也無法阻止它拖欠主要石油服務(wù)提供商的款項(xiàng)。該公司還為急需進(jìn)口的輕質(zhì)原油支付了一些費(fèi)用，輕質(zhì)原油曾與超重質(zhì)原油混在一起，而超重質(zhì)原油在產(chǎn)量中所占份額不斷增加。在常規(guī)原油產(chǎn)量不斷下降的情況下，加拉加斯對(duì)其龐大的重油儲(chǔ)備押注倍增。然而，由于升級(jí)能力不足，銷售這種原油需要與進(jìn)口輕質(zhì)油或稀釋劑混合，這將提高生產(chǎn)成本。PDVSA無法確保輕質(zhì)油進(jìn)口可能危及出口。 最后，PDVSA和石油工業(yè)不存在于真空中，它們深受該國(guó)前所未有的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和政治危機(jī)的影響。如果目前的危機(jī)得不到政治解決，委內(nèi)瑞拉將成為2017年石油市場(chǎng)日益增長(zhǎng)的供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。另一方面，一項(xiàng)政治決議，導(dǎo)致應(yīng)對(duì)當(dāng)前融資和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策發(fā)生重大變化，可以大大改善該國(guó)的中期生產(chǎn)前景。
Venezuela has become a supply risk for oil markets, not only because of the multiple operational challenges facing it, from a crippling electricity crisis to malfunction at its oil export terminals and refineries, but most importantly because of the spiraling impact of the steep oil production declines already suffered this year. Noteworthy was the government’s admission of a plunge in May in crude production of 120,000 b/d month-on-month, or 11 percent year-on-year, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). As of June, Venezuela had seen a year-to-date decline of almost 230,000 b/d, and counting. Clearly Venezuela is at the core of the downward adjustment in global oil supply triggered by the oil price drop. Losses in oil production have yet to translate into a commensurate fall in oil exports, due to the heavy toll taken by the country’s economic collapse on domestic demand. But the stability of exports in the first half of the year mask a deteriorating trend with June exports already more than 300,000 b/d lower than last year’s average. Despite all the headline noise about Venezuela, the most severe risks to oil markets thus still lie ahead. The stress brought about by the oil price crash on the national oil company PDVSA’s finances lie at the heart of the oil production challenge. So far the government has prioritized bond debt service payments in its allocation of available dollar liquidity, out of concern that failure to do so could have an even more crippling impact on the company’s production and exports than already experienced. Even so, the strain on PDVSA’s dollar liquidity situation is crippling. The cash-flow situation of PDVSA is so critical that even a steep cut in its dollar transfers to the government could not keep it from falling into arrears with key oil service providers. The company has also had some trouble paying for its critically needed imports of light crude oil, used to blend with the ultra-heavy grades that make up a growing share of production. Amid worsening declines in conventional crude output, Caracas has doubled down on its bet on its massive reserves of heavy oil. Due to insufficient upgrading capacity, however, marketing this crude requires blending with imported light oil or diluents, which will raise production costs. PDVSA’s inability to secure light oil imports could jeopardize exports. Finally, PDVSA and the oil industry do not exist in a vacuum; they are deeply affected by the country’s unprecedented economic, social, and political crisis. Absent a political resolution to the current crisis, Venezuela will represent a growing supply risk for oil markets in 2017. On the other hand, a political resolution, leading to a dramatic change in economic policies that address the current financing and economic crisis, could significantly improve the country’s medium-term production outlook.
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