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歐佩克對(duì)市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定的追求OPEC’s Pursuit of Market Stability

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更新時(shí)間：2021-09-17
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我們調(diào)查了石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）為穩(wěn)定過去50年的油價(jià)所做的嘗試。我們首先開發(fā)一種全球需求和非歐佩克供應(yīng)變化的新穎分解方法。這種分解為關(guān)于需求與供給因素作為先前價(jià)格走勢(shì)的決定因素的相對(duì)重要性的辯論提供了新的視角?？紤]到歐佩克的產(chǎn)量，分析表明歐佩克在市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定方面做出了努力。使用僅自2001年以來可用的更詳細(xì)的月度數(shù)據(jù)，我們擴(kuò)展并完善了Pierru，Smith和Zamrik（2018）對(duì)OPEC備用產(chǎn)能管理的分析，以抵消需求和供應(yīng)的沖擊。盡管歐佩克未能發(fā)現(xiàn)并抵消沖擊的嘗試還不是完美的，但我們得出的結(jié)論是，總體而言，歐佩克利用閑置產(chǎn)能已大大降低了油價(jià)的波動(dòng)性。在最近的OPEC +時(shí)期尤其如此。我們還提供了歐佩克為減少價(jià)格波動(dòng)所做的努力所產(chǎn)生的對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的福利收益的估計(jì)，并顯示了這些收益如何在地理上分布。

We investigate attempts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilize the price of oil during the past fifty years. We first develop a novel decomposition of shifts in global demand and non-OPEC supply. This decomposition provides a fresh perspective on the debate over the relative importance of demand versus supply factors as determinants of previous price movements. When factoring in OPEC's production, the analysis suggests market stabilization efforts by OPEC. Using more detailed monthly data available only since 2001, we extend and refine Pierru, Smith, and Zamrik's (2018) analysis of OPEC's management of spare capacity to offset shocks to demand and supply. Although OPEC's attempt to identify and offset shocks has not been perfect, we nevertheless conclude that, overall, OPEC's use of spare capacity has achieved a significant reduction in the volatility of the price of oil. This has been particularly true during the recent OPEC+ period. We also provide an estimate of welfare gains to the global economy that result from OPEC's effort to reduce price volatility and show how these gains have been distributed geographically.

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