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低油價(jià)：燃油補(bǔ)貼改革的機(jī)遇LOW OIL PRICES: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FUEL SUBSIDY REFORM

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更新時(shí)間：2021-09-17
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2014年年中開(kāi)始的油價(jià)下跌為各國(guó)政府提供了改革燃油補(bǔ)貼的機(jī)會(huì)。人為地降低消費(fèi)價(jià)格的化石燃料補(bǔ)貼估計(jì)每年花費(fèi)全球政府大約5000億美元。這些補(bǔ)貼對(duì)一個(gè)鼓勵(lì)浪費(fèi)性消費(fèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體產(chǎn)生了一系列負(fù)面影響，給發(fā)展中國(guó)家的預(yù)算造成了巨大的財(cái)政負(fù)擔(dān)，不成比例地使富裕家庭受益，并增加了與礦物燃料使用有關(guān)的健康和環(huán)境成本。因此，對(duì)這些補(bǔ)貼進(jìn)行改革可能對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境都有好處。印度尼西亞和馬來(lái)西亞最近的改革表明，政府可以利用較低的價(jià)格，迅速采取行動(dòng)取消燃料補(bǔ)貼。雖然這些國(guó)家的政府之前已經(jīng)改變了燃料的管制價(jià)格，但它們最近的一些改革已經(jīng)完全取消了燃料補(bǔ)貼機(jī)制。本文有三個(gè)目標(biāo)。首先，它解釋了取消燃油補(bǔ)貼的好處，以及低油價(jià)如何促成行動(dòng)。其次，在前人研究和現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，總結(jié)了我國(guó)政治體制改革的主要障礙。最后，它為國(guó)家和國(guó)際決策者以及社會(huì)科學(xué)家提供了一個(gè)建設(shè)性的、面向行動(dòng)的議程。簡(jiǎn)而言之，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)：

The decline in oil prices that began in the middle of 2014 presents an opportunity for governments to reform their fuel subsidies. Fossil fuel subsidies that artificially lower consumer prices are estimated to cost governments around the globe approximately $500 billion per year. These subsidies have a host of negative effects on an economy—encouraging wasteful consumption, creating a large fiscal burden on developing country budgets, disproportionately benefiting wealthier households, and increasing the health and environmental costs associated with fossil fuel use. Therefore, reforms to these subsidies can be good for the economy and the environment. Recent reforms by Indonesia and Malaysia illustrate that governments can capitalize on lower prices and act swiftly to remove fuel subsidies. While these governments have changed the regulated prices of fuels before, some of their recent reforms have removed fuel subsidy mechanisms altogether. This paper has three goals. First, it explains the benefits of fuel subsidy removal and how low oil prices can enable action. Second, it summarizes key lessons about political obstacles to reform based on our original research and the existing literature. Finally, it offers a constructive, action-oriented agenda for national and international policymakers, as well as social scientists. In short, the paper finds the following:

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