Research on Key Issues of Supply Side Reform in China's Coal Industry中國煤炭行業(yè)供給側(cè)改革關(guān)鍵問題研究
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1.1 to adapt to the national macroeconomic situation, China's economic growth has declined year by year since 2007, and the "troika" of investment, consumption and export on the demand side is obviously insufficient. As the growth rate changes from high speed to medium speed, the economic structure is bound to change significantly. In November 10, 2015, general secretary Xi Jinping put forward at the eleventh meeting of the central financial and economic leading group: "while moderately expanding the total demand, we should focus on strengthening the structural reform of the supply side, and strive to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system, and enhance the driving force for sustained economic growth". To a certain extent, it marks the transformation of China's economic management policy from demand side management to supply side management. Supply side structural reform will become an important driving force for China's economic growth in the next stage. In January 2016, general secretary Xi Jinping stressed at the Twelfth Meeting of the central financial and economic leading group that we should increase production capacity and inventory in a moderately expanded demand, strengthen quality supply from the production field, reduce inefficient supply, and make the supply system better adapt to the change of demand structure. 1.2 to adapt to the clean, low-carbon and environment-friendly development of coal industry, coal will remain the irreplaceable main energy in China for a period of time. General secretary Xi Jinping held the sixth meeting of the central financial and economic leading group in 2014, pointing out that we should vigorously promote clean and efficient utilization of coal and form a multi wheel drive energy supply system of coal, oil, gas, nuclear, new energy and renewable energy. There is a contradiction between short-term overcapacity and long-term resource shortage. In 2011, the reserves and reserve production ratio of the top 10 countries in the world's proved coal reserves are ranked third in China, but the reserve production ratio is the lowest among these 10 countries. Long term uncontrolled growth of demand and large-scale high-intensity development are unsustainable. The construction of ecological civilization forces the transformation of coal utilization mode. At present, the environmental problem has become the key problem restricting the sustainable development of our country, and the country will increase the efforts of atmospheric environment remediation. Clean and efficient utilization of coal will become an important part of energy security in China. 1.3 to adapt to the development of regional economy in recent years, as the country pays more and more attention to environmental pollution, ecological damage and other issues, the coal-based cities with the coal industry as the pillar are greatly impacted, and the urban development is facing more severe challenges. The industrial economy of coal cities and regions is relatively backward, and the level of national income is relatively low. Generally, the traditional industries formed by coal development tend to be aging, the leading industries are lack or poorly developed, and they have low interrelationship with different industrial sectors in the urban area, which has little effect on the whole regional economy. In addition, the ecological damage has a serious impact The sustainable development of regional economy and society lags behind other regions and cities. 1.4 the coal industry has the basis and opportunity for supply side structural reform, and the demand for coal consumption has declined. In recent years, due to the common factors such as the slowdown of economic growth, the transformation and upgrading of economic structure, the adjustment of energy structure and the protection of ecological environment, the demand for coal has declined substantially. According to the national statistical data, China's coal consumption reached a peak of 4.244 billion tons in 2013, and then gradually decreased. In 2014, the national coal consumption decreased by 2.9% year on year; in 2015, the national coal consumption decreased by 3.7% year on year, and the consumption decreased by 191 million tons. By the end of 2015, the total capacity of coal mines under construction and completed in China had reached 5.7 billion tons, and the demand for coal was less than 4 billion tons. The capacity construction is far ahead of schedule. Since 2006, the total investment in fixed assets of coal mining and beneficiation industry in China has reached 3.44 trillion yuan, with a total capacity of 3 billion tons. By the end of 2015, the scale of coal mining projects under construction in China has exceeded 1 billion tons, and the new capacity is in the period of centralized release. Coal stocks have exceeded 300 million tons for 48 consecutive months. Fixed investment decreased significantly. Fixed asset investment in coal mining and beneficiation industry in China has declined continuously since 2013. In the first eight months of 2016, the fixed asset investment in coal mining and beneficiation industry was 171.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33%, an increase of 18.6 percentage points over the same period last year; among them, the private investment was 101 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.9%. Coal economy is down. By the end of 2015, the receivables of coal enterprises in China had reached a high level of 390 billion yuan. Overcapacity led to negative growth of PPI (factory price index of industrial products) for more than 40 consecutive months. According to the statistical data of China Coal Industry Association, 90% of coal enterprises are in the state of loss in 2015, and a large number of coal enterprises have the phenomenon of wage reduction and postponement. By the end of May 2016, the total liabilities of Coal Enterprises above Designated Size in China had reached 3.64 trillion yuan, with an average asset liability ratio of 67.7%. Remarkable achievements have been made in scientific and technological innovation. China's annual output of 10 million tons of comprehensive mining equipment, 20 million tons of large-scale open-pit mining equipment to achieve internationalization, intelligent working face technology to the international advanced level. Progress has been made in the localization of large-scale coal preparation technology and equipment. Demonstration projects of coal processing, such as million tons of coal to oil and 600000 tons of coal olefins, have been put into commercial operation. The technology of gas drainage in low permeability coal seam has made a breakthrough, forming a new integrated development mode of coal mining and gas production. The ecological environment of the mining area has been gradually improved. In China, the comprehensive management of mining subsidence area and waste dump has been strengthened, and the ecological restoration and environmental management of mining area have achieved remarkable results. Vigorously develop circular economy, promote clean production in coal mines, and improve the comprehensive utilization level of coal gangue, mine water, coalbed methane (coal mine gas) and other resources. The transformation of shantytowns is accelerated, and the production and living environment of employees is further improved
1.1 適應(yīng)國家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢 自 2007 年以來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速逐年下滑,需求側(cè)的投資、消費、出口 “ 三駕馬車 ” 明 顯動力不足。增長速度由高速向中高速轉(zhuǎn)變,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)必然發(fā)生重大變化。 2015 年 11 月 10 日,習(xí)近平總書記在中央財經(jīng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組第十一次會議上提出:“ 在 適度擴(kuò)大總需求的同時,著力加強供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,著力提高供給體系質(zhì)量和效率, 增強經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長動力 ”。在一定程度上,標(biāo)志著我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)管理政策由需求側(cè)管理向供 給側(cè)管理轉(zhuǎn)變,供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革將成為我國下一階段經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要推動力。2016 年 1 月,習(xí)近平總書記在中央財經(jīng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組第十二次會議上強調(diào),要在適度擴(kuò)大總需求的同 時去產(chǎn)能、去庫存,從生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域加強優(yōu)質(zhì)供給,減少無效供給,使供給體系更好適應(yīng)需 求結(jié)構(gòu)變化。 1.2 適應(yīng)煤炭行業(yè)清潔、低 碳、環(huán)境友好型發(fā)展 煤炭在一段時期內(nèi)仍將是我國不可替代的主體能源。習(xí)近平總書記在 2014 年 召開的中央財經(jīng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組第六次會議指出,要大力推進(jìn)煤炭清潔高效利用,形成煤、油、 氣、核、新能源、可再生能源多輪驅(qū)動的能源供應(yīng)體系。 短期產(chǎn)能過剩與長期資源不足形成矛盾。2011 年世界煤炭探明儲量前 10 位國家 的儲量和儲采比,中國煤炭探明儲量列第三位,但儲采比在這 10 個國家中最低。長期無 節(jié)制增長的需求與大規(guī)模高強度開發(fā),是不可持續(xù)的。 生態(tài)文明建設(shè)倒逼煤炭利用方式轉(zhuǎn)變。目前,環(huán)境問題已經(jīng)成為制約我國可持續(xù) 發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問題,國家將加大大氣環(huán)境整治力度。煤炭的清潔高效利用將成為我國能源 安全的重要內(nèi)容。1.3 適應(yīng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 近年來,隨著國家對環(huán)境污染、生態(tài)破壞等問題越來越重視,以煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)為支柱的 煤炭型城市受到較大沖擊,城市發(fā)展面臨著較為嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。 煤炭型城市和地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)相對較為落后,國民收入水平相對較低,一般多是以 煤炭開發(fā)形成的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè),發(fā)展已趨于老化,主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)缺乏或發(fā)育較差,且與城市區(qū)域 內(nèi)不同產(chǎn)業(yè)部門之間相互聯(lián)系較低,對整個區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)帶作用較小,加之生態(tài)破壞, 嚴(yán)重影響了這些地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會綜合發(fā)展水平落后于其他地區(qū) 和城市。 1.4 煤炭行業(yè)已具備供給側(cè) 結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的基礎(chǔ)和時機(jī) 煤炭消費需求下降。近年來,受經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級、能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào) 整、生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)等共同因素影響,煤炭需求大幅度下降。根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),2013 年 中國煤炭消費量達(dá)到峰值 42.44 億噸,進(jìn)而逐步下降,2014 年,全國煤炭消費量同比下 降 2.9%;2015 年全國煤炭消費量同比下降 3.7%,消費量減少 1.91 億噸。截至 2015 年底, 我國共有建成和在建煤礦合計產(chǎn)能達(dá)到 57 億噸,煤炭需求不足 40 億噸。 產(chǎn)能建設(shè)大幅超前。2006 年以來,全國煤炭采選業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)累計投資 3.44 萬億元, 累計新增產(chǎn)能 30 億噸,截至 2015 年底,全國煤礦在建項目規(guī)模超過 10 億噸,新增產(chǎn)能 正處于集中釋放期。煤炭庫存已連續(xù) 48 個月超過 3 億噸。 固定投資明顯減少。全國煤炭采選業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資自 2013 年以來連續(xù)下降。2016 年前 8 個月煤炭采選業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資 1716 億元,同比下降 33%,降幅比去年同期擴(kuò)大 18.6 個百分點;其中民間投資 1010 億元,下降 29.9%。 煤炭經(jīng)濟(jì)下行。截至 2015 年底,全國煤炭企業(yè)應(yīng)收賬款已經(jīng)達(dá)到 3900 億元的高位。 產(chǎn)能過剩引發(fā) PPI(工業(yè)品出廠價格指數(shù))連續(xù) 40 多月負(fù)增長。根據(jù)中國煤炭工業(yè)協(xié)會統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),2015 年已有 90% 的煤炭企業(yè)處于虧損狀態(tài),大量煤炭企業(yè)出現(xiàn)了減發(fā)、緩發(fā) 工資的現(xiàn)象。截至 2016 年 5 月底,我國規(guī)模以上煤炭企業(yè)負(fù)債總額 3.64 萬億元,平均資 產(chǎn)負(fù)債率達(dá)到 67.7%。 科技創(chuàng)新成效顯著。我國年產(chǎn)千萬噸級綜采成套設(shè)備、年產(chǎn) 2000 萬噸級大型露天 礦成套設(shè)備實現(xiàn)國際化,智能工作面技術(shù)達(dá)到國際先進(jìn)水平。大型選煤技術(shù)和裝備國產(chǎn) 化取得進(jìn)展百萬噸級煤制油和 60 萬噸煤質(zhì)烯烴等煤炭加工示范項目實現(xiàn)商業(yè)化運行。低 透氣性煤層瓦斯抽采等技術(shù)取得突破,形成采煤采氣一體化開發(fā)新模式。 礦區(qū)生態(tài)環(huán)境逐步改善。我國加大對采煤沉陷區(qū)和排矸場綜合治理力度,礦區(qū)生 態(tài)修復(fù)和環(huán)境治理成效明顯。大力發(fā)展循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì),推行煤礦清潔生產(chǎn),煤矸石、礦井水、 煤層氣(煤礦瓦斯)等資源綜合利用水平不斷提高。棚戶區(qū)改造加快推進(jìn),職工生產(chǎn)生 活環(huán)境進(jìn)一步改善。 目前,我國總體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展到了一定的水平,據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局 2016 年 1 月 19 日公布的 經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2015 年中國全年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)67.67 萬億元,在世界排名第二, 2015 年我國人均 GDP 達(dá)到 5.2 萬元,已接近中等偏上國家平均收入水平。國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層加 大對供給側(cè)改革的關(guān)注和支持力度,我國現(xiàn)已具備了供給側(cè)結(jié)改革的基礎(chǔ)與時機(jī),現(xiàn)階 段我國煤炭行業(yè)實施供給側(cè)改革,將對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。
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