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中國煤炭市場：北京能馴服“王煤”嗎？China’s Coal Market: Can Beijing Tame ‘King Coal’?

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更新時間：2021-09-16
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本報告分析了中國煤炭行業(yè)在市場趨勢和政策發(fā)展的推動下發(fā)生的根本性轉(zhuǎn)變。它的目標是評估中國煤炭需求、供應(yīng)和物流的關(guān)鍵變化對中國煤炭進口的影響，以及更廣泛地對中國煤炭貿(mào)易政策的影響。第一章是緒論，闡述了中國在國際動力煤市場上的關(guān)鍵作用，第二章總結(jié)了新能源政策的主要方向。接下來的兩章是關(guān)于煤炭需求的。第3章回顧了導(dǎo)致煤炭需求下降的主要因素，主要集中在中國東部地區(qū)。第4章評估了仍然導(dǎo)致煤炭需求上升的因素，并包括一個章節(jié)(章節(jié)4.5)，概述了這兩種趨勢，并突出了關(guān)鍵的不確定性領(lǐng)域。第五章分析了煤炭行業(yè)的主要趨勢、正在進行的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、解決當前供應(yīng)過剩的努力以及未來的趨勢。第6章著眼于煤炭港口投資和新的煤炭專用鐵路運力，第7章回顧了中國煤炭價格和定價的演變，第8章提供了煤炭進口和中長期煤炭貿(mào)易政策的評估。在第九章中給出了一些結(jié)語。

This report analyzes the radical transformation of the Chinese coal sector, driven by market trends and policy developments. Its objective is to assess the impact of key changes in China’s coal demand, supply, and logistics on China’s coal imports and more generally on China’s coal trade policy. The first chapter is an introduction explaining the key role of China on the international steam coal market, while chapter 2 sums up the main orientation of the new energy policy. The next two chapters are devoted to coal demand. Chapter 3 reviews the main drivers leading to a reduction in coal demand, mainly in East China, while chapter 4 assesses the factors that still drive a rise in coal demand and includes a section (Section 4.5) summarizing both trends and highlighting key areas of uncertainty. Chapter 5 analyzes major trends in the coal mining sector, its ongoing restructuring, efforts to resolve the current oversupply, and future trends. Chapter 6 looks at investment in coal ports and new coal-dedicated railway capacity, chapter 7 reviews the evolution of Chinese coal prices and pricing, while chapter 8 provides an assessment of coal imports and coal trade policy in the short and medium/long term. Some concluding remarks are then given in chapter 9.

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