首頁(yè) > 資料下載 > 從煤到天然煤的轉(zhuǎn)變會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么影響阿爾伯塔省的燃?xì)獍l(fā)電阿爾伯塔電力系統(tǒng)的價(jià)格運(yùn)營(yíng)商系統(tǒng)邊際價(jià)格電？What effect will the shift from coal to natural

從煤到天然煤的轉(zhuǎn)變會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么影響阿爾伯塔省的燃?xì)獍l(fā)電阿爾伯塔電力系統(tǒng)的價(jià)格運(yùn)營(yíng)商系統(tǒng)邊際價(jià)格電？What effect will the shift from coal to natural

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這篇論文將研究目前和正在進(jìn)行的在加拿大阿爾伯塔省將煤轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樘烊粴庾鳛橹饕l(fā)電來源的影響。艾伯塔省電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商“AESO”(2014)預(yù)測(cè)，到2022年，艾伯塔省將需要7000兆瓦的新發(fā)電能力，其中約5000兆瓦的新需求將來自于燃煤發(fā)電廠的退役。發(fā)展再加上向更清潔的燃?xì)獍l(fā)電的轉(zhuǎn)變，意味著到2022年，新一代發(fā)電的需求將增加51%。這種發(fā)電方式的轉(zhuǎn)變可能會(huì)對(duì)我們預(yù)測(cè)的未來電力價(jià)格產(chǎn)生重大影響。考慮到新一代的大量資本需求、新一代需求的大幅增長(zhǎng)以及這些資產(chǎn)的長(zhǎng)壽命，對(duì)發(fā)電商來說，對(duì)其價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)能力有信心是至關(guān)重要的。

This paper will examine the effect of the current and ongoing switch from coal to natural gas as the primary source of electrical generation in the Province of Alberta, Canada. The Alberta Electric System Operator “AESO” (2014) has forecast that the Province will need 7,000 megawatts of new power generation by 2022 — and about 5,000 MW of that new demand is expected to be due to the retirement of coal-fuelled power plants. Growth combined with a shift toward cleaner gas fired generation means a 51% increase in new generation will be required by 2022. This shift in generation is likely to have a significant effect on how future power prices our forecast. Given the large capital requirements for new generation, the substantial increases in new generation required, and the long life of these assets it is critical for generators to have confidence in their price forecasting ability. The basis for this paper is determination of the effects of the shift toward natural gas in the Alberta generation market will have on prices and forecasting methodology and drivers

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