The 13th five-year plan period is a substantial and crucial stage in the transformation of China's energy consumption structure.Controlling total energy consumption is the top priority, while controlling total coal consumption is the top priority.As the core of modern energy system, power industry has always been the main consumption sector of coal, and also the key sector of greenhouse gas and pollutant emission.In the context of the new normal of the economy and the transformation of the energy system, it is the main goal of the power industry to strictly control the total coal consumption, promote the peak of coal consumption in 2013, increase the proportion of green energy consumption, and promote the optimal allocation and structural upgrading of power resources in the later period of the 13th five-year plan and even in the future.To achieve these goals, the key is to actively promote the power (especially coal power industry) supply side structural reform.Promoting supply-side structural reform is a major decision made by the CPC central committee and the state council, and a major innovation to adapt to and guide the new normal of economic development.In February 2016, nur bekri, director of the national energy administration, pointed out that to solve the prominent problems of energy development under the new normal, such as overcapacity in traditional energy, bottlenecks in the development of renewable energy and low efficiency of the overall energy system, we must innovate the energy system and mechanism and vigorously promote the structural reform of the energy supply side.In 2016, we completed the task of cutting coal production capacity by more than 250 million tons. At the same time, we planned ahead and halted or delayed the construction of a number of coal-fired power projects, making important progress.This report reviews the coal consumption control achievements of the power industry in 2017, quantifies the coal consumption and coal control of power generation in the current year by combining the power supply and demand situation and renewable energy consumption situation, and breaks down the coal control effects of various supply-side reform measures.Secondly, it studies and evaluates the characteristics of the new normal of power generation, looks into the situation of power supply and demand in the later period of the 13th five-year plan, and proposes and quantifies the coal saving potential of major supply-side reform measures, such as promoting demand-side management, strengthening the consumption of renewable energy, and improving energy efficiency through economic dispatch.The influence of thermal power flexibility reform, an important supply-side reform measure in the power industry, on the consumption of wind power connected to the grid is systematically analyzed.Finally, the report analyzes the supply and demand situation of the power industry in 2018, calculates the scale of power generation coal consumption, and puts forward several policy Suggestions for the structural reform of the power supply side and wind power consumption.In 2017, China's total public electricity consumption was 6.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 6.5% year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year.The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 4441.3 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.5% year-on-year, or 2.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 881.4 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, or 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.The electricity consumption of urban and rural residents reached 869.5 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, or 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year.Table 1 shows the historical electricity consumption of each department.The growth rate of electricity consumption in 2017 was much higher than that of 2015 and 5% higher than that of 2016.The main reasons for the rapid growth of electricity consumption in 2017 are: the macro economy has maintained steady and moderate growth, the high temperature in summer, the rebound of high-consumption industries, and the rapid growth of the tertiary industry.2. Power consumption in high-consumption industries the growth performance of power consumption in 2017 indicates that the economy is stable and improving, but the growth trend of power consumption in high-consumption industries indicates that the effect of economic stimulus policies at the end of 2016 is withdrawing, and the growth of power consumption is expected to decline in 2018.As can be seen from figure 3, the growth trend of high power consumption industry is similar to that of the whole society.Since the fourth quarter of 2016, electricity consumption in the four high-consumption industries has increased rapidly, which has promoted the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the whole society.From January to November 2017, the growth rate of the four high-power consumption industries increased year on year.The total electricity consumption accounted for 28.9% of the total electricity consumption and 19.7% of the total power consumption growth.The total electricity consumption of the four high-consumption industries increased by 4.0%, with the growth rate falling quarter by quarter.With the exception of the chemical industry, growth in other high-power industries has slowed sharply in November.The market prospect of new coal chemical industry determines the uncertainty of chemical industry's continuous growth.Building materials and ferrous metal industry growth rate than the same period last year fell;Non-ferrous metal smelting industry electricity consumption and growth rate have declined.Cement and steel production has fallen slightly between January and November, based on electricity data.In the case of coal production, raw coal output fell 2.7 per cent in November from a year earlier, driven by low downstream production, and the demand factors expected to lead to a rebound in coal output due to a decline in thermal power generation were not present.The above analysis shows that by the end of 2016 economic stimulus policy reform the supply side, high power consumption industries, such as the price picks up, the intermediate links to fill inventory multiple factors driving the wave of high rebound is out of power industry, electricity consumption of 2018 and beyond, should pay more attention to the light industry especially high value-added manufacturing, the growth of the third industry and daily use.By the end of 2017, China's total installed power-generating capacity had reached 1.7777 trillion kilowatts, up 7.6% year-on-year.Among them, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 690 million kw, accounting for 38.7 percent of the total installed capacity, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year on year.The installed power generation capacity of China increased by 133.72 million kw, of which 89.88 million kw was installed by non-fossil energy generators, both hitting record highs.Installed hydropower capacity increased by 12.87 million kilowatts, including 2 million megawatts of pumped storage.Added 15.03 million kw of grid-connected wind power;The newly installed grid-connected solar power generation capacity was 53.38 million kw, an increase of 21.67 million kw year on year.The installed coal and electricity capacity increased by 38.55 million kw, a year-on-year decrease of 1.42 million kw 2.China's full-caliber power generation capacity is 6.42 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 6.5% year on year;Among them, non-fossil energy generation increased by 10.0%, accounting for 30.4% of the total power generation, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year on year.The total grid-connected solar power generation, wind power generation and nuclear power generation increased by 75.4%, 26.3% and 16.5% respectively.

“十三五”時期是我國能源消費結構轉(zhuǎn)型的實質(zhì)性關鍵階段。控制能源消費總量是 當前重點工作，而煤炭消費總量控制是重中之重。作為現(xiàn)代能源系統(tǒng)的核心，電力行業(yè) 一直是煤炭最主要的消費部門，同時也是溫室氣體、污染物排放的重點部門。在經(jīng)濟步 入新常態(tài)、能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型的背景下嚴格控制煤炭消費總量，促使煤炭消費量于 2013 年達 到峰值，提高綠色能源消費占比，促進電力資源優(yōu)化配置和結構升級是“十三五”后期 乃至未來一段時間電力行業(yè)的主要目標。而要實現(xiàn)這些目標，關鍵是要積極推進電力（特 別是煤電行業(yè)）供給側(cè)結構性改革。 推進供給側(cè)結構性改革是黨中央、國務院做出的重大決策，是適應和引領經(jīng)濟發(fā)展 新常態(tài)的重大創(chuàng)新。2016 年 2 月，國家能源局局長努爾 ? 白克力指出，破解新常態(tài)下能 源發(fā)展面臨的傳統(tǒng)能源產(chǎn)能過剩、可再生能源發(fā)展瓶頸制約、能源系統(tǒng)整體運行效率不 高等突出問題，必須創(chuàng)新能源體制機制，大力推進能源供給側(cè)結構性改革。在 2016 年超 額完成了 2.5 億噸的煤炭去產(chǎn)能任務，同時超前謀劃，停建、緩建了一批煤電項目，取 得了重要進展。 本報告回顧了 2017 年電力行業(yè)煤炭消費控制成果，結合電力供需形勢和可再生能 源消納形勢量化了當年發(fā)電耗煤與煤控情況，并分解了各項供給側(cè)改革措施的控煤效果。 其次，對電力新常態(tài)的特征進行研判，對“十三五”后期電力供需形勢進行了展望，提 出并量化了推進需求側(cè)管理、強化可再生能源消納、經(jīng)濟調(diào)度提升能效等主要供給側(cè)改 革措施的節(jié)煤潛力。對電力行業(yè)重要的供給側(cè)改革措施——火電靈活性改造對風電并網(wǎng) 消納的影響進行了系統(tǒng)分析。最后，報告分析了 2018 年電力行業(yè)供需形勢，匡算了電力 行業(yè)發(fā)電耗煤規(guī)模，并針對電力供給側(cè)結構性改革及風電消納提出若干政策建議。

1. 全社會用電量增長情況 2017 年全國全社會用電量 6.4 萬億千瓦時，同比增長 6.5%，增速比上年同期提高 1.5 個百分點 1 ，分產(chǎn)業(yè)看，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量 1155 億千瓦時，同比增長 7.3%，占全社會 用電量的比重為 1.8%；第二產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量 44413 億千瓦時，同比增長 5.5%，增速比上年 同期提高 2.6 個百分點，占全社會用電量的比重為 70.4%，對全社會用電量增長的貢獻 率為 59%；第三產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量 8814 億千瓦時，同比增長 10.7%，增速比上年同期回落 1.1 個百分點，占全社會用電量的比重為 14.0%，對全社會用電量增長的貢獻率為 21.8%；城鄉(xiāng)居民生活用電量 8695 億千瓦時，同比增長 7.8%，增速比上年同期回落 3 個百分點，占全社會用電量的比重為 13.8%，對全社會用電量增長的貢獻率為 16.4%。 表 1 展示了各部門的歷史用電量。2017 全年全社會用電量增速遠超 2015 年電力增速， 高于 2016 年 5% 的需求增速。2017 年全社會用電量增長較快的主要原因在于：宏觀經(jīng) 濟持續(xù)穩(wěn)中向好、夏季高溫因素、高耗電行業(yè)反彈、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)較快增長。2. 高耗電行業(yè)用電情況 2017 年電力消費增長表現(xiàn)表明經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)中向好，但高耗電行業(yè)用電增長態(tài)勢則表明 2016 年底的經(jīng)濟刺激政策效應正在退出，2018 年電力消費增長有望回落。 由圖 3 可知，高耗電行業(yè)與全社會用電增速變化趨勢相近。自 2016 年四季度以來， 四大高耗電行業(yè)用電增長較快，推動了全社會用電快速增長。2017 年 1-11 月份，四大 高耗電行業(yè)增速同比增長；合計用電量占全社會用電量的比重為 28.9%，對全社會用電 量增長的貢獻率為 19.7%。全年四大高耗電行業(yè)合計用電量增長 4.0%，增速逐季回落。11 月當月除化工行業(yè)外，其他高耗電行業(yè)增速已大幅回落。化工行業(yè)中的新型煤化 工的市場前景決定了化工行業(yè)持續(xù)增長的不確定性；建材與黑色金屬行業(yè)增速比上年同 期回落；有色金屬冶煉行業(yè)用電同比與增速均有所下降。根據(jù)用電數(shù)據(jù)推算，1-11 月份， 水泥和鋼鐵行業(yè)產(chǎn)量已出現(xiàn)小幅下降。就煤炭產(chǎn)量而言，受下游產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)處于低位的影響， 11 月份原煤產(chǎn)量同比下降 2.7%，火電發(fā)電量下降預期導致煤炭產(chǎn)量反彈的需求因素不 復存在。 上述分析表明，受 2016 年底經(jīng)濟刺激政策、高耗電行業(yè)供給側(cè)改革、價格回升、 中間環(huán)節(jié)補庫存等多重因素推動的這一波高耗電行業(yè)反彈正在退出，觀察 2018 年及之后 的電力消費，應更多關注輕工業(yè)特別是高附加值制造業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)和生活用電的增長態(tài)勢。 3. 電源裝機增長情況 截至 2017 年底，全國全口徑發(fā)電裝機容量 17.77 億千瓦、同比增長 7.6%；其 中，非化石能源發(fā)電裝機容量 6.9 億千瓦，占總發(fā)電裝機容量的比重為 38.7%，同比提 高 2.1 個百分點。全國新增發(fā)電裝機容量 13372 萬千瓦，其中，新增非化石能源發(fā)電裝 機 8988 萬千瓦，均創(chuàng)歷年新高。新增水電裝機 1287 萬千瓦，其中抽水蓄能 200 萬千 瓦；新增并網(wǎng)風電裝機 1503 萬千瓦；新增并網(wǎng)太陽能發(fā)電裝機 5338 萬千瓦，同比增加 2167 萬千；新增煤電裝機 3855 萬千瓦、同比減少 142 萬千瓦 2。 全國全口徑發(fā)電量 6.42 萬億千瓦時、同比增長 6.5%；其中，非化石能源發(fā)電量同 比增長 10.0%，占總發(fā)電量比重為 30.4%，同比提高 1.0 個百分點。全口徑并網(wǎng)太陽能 發(fā)電、并網(wǎng)風電、核電發(fā)電量分別增長 75.4%、26.3% 和 16.5%。