世界煤炭市場(chǎng)發(fā)展——世界煤炭生產(chǎn)和海運(yùn)貿(mào)易顯著事件8月中國(guó)國(guó)有資產(chǎn)監(jiān)督管理委員會(huì)批準(zhǔn)的合并該國(guó)最大的煤炭生產(chǎn)國(guó),神華集團(tuán)五大電力公司,中國(guó)國(guó)電集團(tuán)公司、創(chuàng)建世界上最大的電力公司,價(jià)值超過(guò)2700億美元。中國(guó)國(guó)家發(fā)展和改革委員會(huì)7月份宣布了幾項(xiàng)旨在通過(guò)擴(kuò)大本土供應(yīng)來(lái)降低熱煤價(jià)格的措施，其中包括在2017年新增約200至300噸的新煤礦，以擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)能。中國(guó)政府明確表示，冶金用煤不會(huì)受到這些措施的影響。這些措施可能會(huì)減少中國(guó)冶金用煤的進(jìn)口，并在未來(lái)幾年降低冶金用煤的價(jià)格。煤炭企業(yè)正在復(fù)蘇，其中多數(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)了巨額利潤(rùn)。Peabody, 最大 world’s 私人 sector 煤炭 company, 宣布 2017 年 April 脫離 破產(chǎn) , 報(bào)告 的 調(diào)整  EBITDA $659m 上半年 的 2017.Arch Coal報(bào)告稱(chēng)，2017年第二季度EBITDAR調(diào)整后為9530萬(wàn)美元，去年同期為虧損。2017年上半年，煤炭?jī)r(jià)格和趨勢(shì)蒸汽煤價(jià)格保持穩(wěn)定，在每噸93美元左右。在5月下跌之后，房?jī)r(jià)在夏季回升，并在秋季繼續(xù)上漲，超過(guò)了2016年的高點(diǎn)。價(jià)格企穩(wěn)的基本面是中國(guó)在礦產(chǎn)和港口采取的監(jiān)管措施，以及韓國(guó)和中國(guó)的需求上升。歐洲煤炭市場(chǎng)從2012年開(kāi)始下跌，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了大幅逆轉(zhuǎn)。一段時(shí)間的惡劣天氣和可再生能源的低發(fā)電量，再加上電力系統(tǒng)的大量中斷，導(dǎo)致煤炭使用量和產(chǎn)量增加。這對(duì)煤炭行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)好消息，盡管動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格下跌，運(yùn)費(fèi)上漲。粗鋼產(chǎn)量的增加也導(dǎo)致冶金用煤消耗量的增加。2017年上半年，捷克的硬煤產(chǎn)量為2.7公噸(與2016年同期相比下降了26%)。與2016年上半年相比，硬煤出口量下降至1.22公噸(下降41%)，主要出口至斯洛伐克(0.5公噸)、奧地利(0.3公噸)、波蘭(0.14公噸)和德國(guó)(0.1公噸)，其中0.75公噸為焦煤。今年上半年，中國(guó)進(jìn)口的硬煤增至1.86噸(增長(zhǎng)49%)，主要來(lái)自波蘭(1.68噸)、加拿大和俄羅斯，其中0.87噸是焦煤。2017年上半年，丹麥煤炭進(jìn)口量保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，為1.4噸，而2016年同期為1.5噸。東能源公司日前宣布，將把780兆瓦的燃煤電廠阿斯納斯電廠改造成木屑發(fā)電廠。這符合該公司的戰(zhàn)略，即到2023年停止在其發(fā)電廠使用煤炭，代之以木球和木片。芬蘭2017年上半年的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，煤炭進(jìn)口量增至1.7噸，其中1.0噸為動(dòng)力煤。芬蘭奧爾基洛托3號(hào)核電站再次從2018年推遲到2019年5月。今年上半年，法國(guó)的煤炭進(jìn)口量從2016年同期的6.4噸增加到7.8噸。進(jìn)口的動(dòng)力煤供應(yīng)了剩下的四個(gè)燃煤發(fā)電廠:1200兆瓦的法國(guó)電力公司(EDF);勒阿弗爾600兆瓦(EDF);620兆瓦的埃米爾赫切特(Uniper)和600兆瓦的普羅旺斯(Uniper)。普羅旺斯的植物正在轉(zhuǎn)化為生物質(zhì)。2017年上半年，德國(guó)煤炭產(chǎn)量從2016年同期的2.6噸小幅下降至2.2噸。煤炭進(jìn)口量一直處于高位，為25.5噸，盡管略低于2016年上半年。愛(ài)爾蘭2017年上半年煤炭進(jìn)口的初步數(shù)據(jù)為1.3噸，包括煙煤、無(wú)煙煤、專(zhuān)利燃料和BKB。進(jìn)口硬煤1.2萬(wàn)噸，比2016年同期增長(zhǎng)20%。目前對(duì)2017年上半年泥炭產(chǎn)量的估計(jì)為2.0公噸，比2016年同期高出33%。2017年上半年，意大利煤炭進(jìn)口量增至8.0噸，而2016年同期為7.5噸。意大利鞏固了其作為歐盟第二大粗鋼生產(chǎn)國(guó)的地位，僅次于德國(guó)。這反映在焦煤進(jìn)口的增加上。荷蘭的燃煤發(fā)電能力近年來(lái)有所增加，從3.9吉瓦增至4.7吉瓦，這反映在煤炭進(jìn)口的增加上，2017年上半年的煤炭進(jìn)口量估計(jì)為7.9萬(wàn)噸。波蘭的硬煤產(chǎn)量在2017年上半年略有下降，為32.8噸，與2016年同期相比下降了4.4%。最大的生產(chǎn)商依然存在:波蘭Grupa Gornicza(45%的市場(chǎng)份額),Jastrzebska Spolka W?glowa,主要專(zhuān)攻煉焦煤(23%的市場(chǎng)份額)和LW Bogdanka(14%的市場(chǎng)份額)。2017年上半年，西班牙的煤炭產(chǎn)量為1.7萬(wàn)噸，較上年同期大幅增長(zhǎng)(+41.6%)。煤炭進(jìn)口的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于可再生能源發(fā)電量較低，煤炭進(jìn)口量從2016年同期的6.6噸增加至9.4噸左右。今年上半年，土耳其的煤炭生產(chǎn)和進(jìn)口保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。2016年上半年，硬煤產(chǎn)量保持在0.7噸的水平;與此同時(shí)，褐煤產(chǎn)量增至26.5噸。2017年上半年，煤炭進(jìn)口量從2016年同期的16.1噸小幅降至15.8噸。2017年上半年，煤炭占英國(guó)發(fā)電量的8.3%。煤炭產(chǎn)量為1.6噸(與2016年同期相比下降了15.8%)，進(jìn)口量為4.0噸，這是由于煤炭發(fā)電量的下降。2017年上半年市場(chǎng)上的主要煤炭供應(yīng)商是英國(guó)生產(chǎn)商(1.57公噸，32%)，其次是俄羅斯(1.36公噸，28%)和美國(guó)(1.15公噸，24%)。煤炭庫(kù)存現(xiàn)在非常低。烏克蘭燃煤電廠的庫(kù)存降至1.1噸，主要原因是2017年3月頓巴斯(Donbass)的煤礦資產(chǎn)被查封導(dǎo)致無(wú)煙煤短缺，以及將a級(jí)(無(wú)煙煤)煤?jiǎn)卧D(zhuǎn)換為g級(jí)導(dǎo)致g級(jí)煤短缺。2017年上半年，與2016年同期相比，保加利亞褐煤的煤炭利用和產(chǎn)量有所增加。褐煤產(chǎn)量增加到16.7 Mt(與2016年同期相比增加了40.3%)，而輸送到發(fā)電廠的褐煤產(chǎn)量為16.9 Mt(增加了22.4%)。2017年上半年，捷克的褐煤產(chǎn)量小幅增長(zhǎng)至19.3公噸(較2016年同期增長(zhǎng)4%)，其中大部分用于電力生產(chǎn)(14.9公噸)。褐煤出口量小幅增加至0.4噸(+1%)，主要出口斯洛伐克、波蘭和匈牙利。從德國(guó)進(jìn)口的褐煤很少，只有0.07公噸。德國(guó)2017年上半年褐煤產(chǎn)量為86.5公噸，較2016年同期增長(zhǎng)3.2%。褐煤產(chǎn)量約90% (78.0 Mt)用于發(fā)電廠發(fā)電和供熱。2017年上半年，褐煤發(fā)電量略高，為75.2 TWh(比2016年同期增長(zhǎng)2.4%)。一次能源消費(fèi)方面，褐煤增長(zhǎng)2.9%，核能下降17.5%。褐煤是希臘重要的發(fā)電燃料，約占電力市場(chǎng)的三分之一(2016年為31%)。2017年，PPC和較小的煤礦的褐煤產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)在37.0 Mt左右。2017年褐煤發(fā)電預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到16.8 TWh，高于2016年的14.9 TWh。2017年上半年，匈牙利的煤炭產(chǎn)量為3.5噸，低于2016年同期。褐煤主要用于電力生產(chǎn)，3.4 Mt。煤進(jìn)口量低，主要從捷克、波蘭和美國(guó)進(jìn)口，其中硬煤0.7 Mt，主要為焦煤，褐煤0.1 Mt。2017年上半年，波蘭褐煤產(chǎn)量為30.7 Mt，比2016年同期增長(zhǎng)8.3%。在波蘭83.0 TWh(32.0%)的總發(fā)電量中，褐煤發(fā)電占26.6 TWh，高于2016年的比例。2017年上半年，羅馬尼亞褐煤產(chǎn)量增至12.3噸，其中大部分由羅馬尼亞第二大電力公司Oltenia Energy Complex開(kāi)采。無(wú)論在產(chǎn)量上還是在財(cái)務(wù)上，公司都度過(guò)了非常好的一年。斯洛文尼亞褐煤產(chǎn)量在2017年上半年增加到1.9噸，比2016年同期增長(zhǎng)了18%。燃煤發(fā)電提供了2.2 TWh，占斯洛文尼亞今年上半年凈發(fā)電量的30.1%。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Notable event in August China’s state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission approved the merger of the  country’s largest coal producer, Shenhua Group, with a top-five power company, China Guodian  Corporation, creating the world’s largest power utility, worth more than $270bn. Global coal production and trade China’s National Development and Reform Commission announced in July several measures aimed at  reducing thermal coal prices, by expanding indigenous supply, including additional new mines to expand capacity by around 200-300 Mt in 2017. The Chinese Government was clear that metallurgical coal will  not be affected by these measures which will likely decrease China’s metallurgical coal imports and  reduce metallurgical coal prices in the coming years. Corporate developments Coal companies are recovering, most making significant profits. Peabody, the world’s largest privatesector coal company, announced its emergence from bankruptcy in April 2017, reporting an adjusted  EBITDA of $659m in the first half of 2017. Arch Coal reported an adjusted EBITDAR of $95.3m in Q2  2017, compared with losses in the same period last year. Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices remained stable in the first half of 2017, at around 93 $/tonne. After a drop in May,  prices picked up during summer and continued increasing in the autumn months, surpassing the 2016  highs. The fundamentals for the price stabilisation were Chinese regulatory measures at mines and ports and higher demand from Korea and China.EUROPEAN COAL MARKET The European coal market has seen a sharp reversal of the decline which started in 2012. A spell of bad  weather and low electricity generation from renewables, combined with large outages from the system  led to an increased usage and production of coal. This good news for the coal industry comes despite  the dip in thermal coal prices and higher freight costs. Larger crude steel production contributed as well  to higher metallurgical coal consumption. HARD COAL Czech Republic Hard coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 2.7 Mt in the first half of 2017 (-26% in  comparison with the same period of 2016). Hard coal exports decreased to 1.22 Mt (-41% in comparison  with the first half of 2016), mainly to Slovakia (0.5 Mt), Austria (0.3 Mt), Poland (0.14 Mt) and Germany  (0.1 Mt), of which 0.75 Mt were coking coal. Hard coal imports in the first part of the year increased to  1.86 Mt (+49%), mostly from Poland (1.68 Mt), Canada and Russia, of which 0.87 Mt were coking coal.Denmark Danish coal imports remained relatively stable at 1.4 Mt in first half of 2017, compared with 1.5 Mt in  the same period of 2016. DONG Energy announced that the 780 MW coal-fired Asnaes power plant will be converted to wood  chips. This follows the strategy of the company to stop using coal at its power plants by 2023, replacing  the fuel with wood pellets and wood chips.Finland Preliminary data for H1 2017 show that coal imports increased to 1.7 Mt, 1.0 Mt being steam coal. Finland's Olkiluoto 3 nuclear plant was delayed again from 2018 until May 2019. France France’s coal imports increased to 7.8 Mt in the first half of the year, from 6.4 Mt in the same period of  2016. The steam coal imports fed the four remaining coal-fired power plants: 1200 MW Cordemais (EDF);  600 MW Le Havre (EDF); 620 MW Emile Huchet (Uniper) and 600 MW Provence (Uniper). The Provence  plant is in the process of being converted to biomass. Germany In the first half of 2017, coal production slightly decreased to 2.2 Mt from 2.6 Mt in the same period of  2016. Coal imports have been at high levels, at 25.5 Mt, although slightly lower than in the first half of  2016.Ireland Preliminary data for coal imports for the first six months of 2017 is 1.3 Mt, including bituminous coal,  anthracite, patent fuel and BKB. Hard coal imports were 1.2 Mt, 20% higher than the same period of  2016. The current estimate for peat production is 2.0 Mt for the first six months of 2017, 33% higher  than the same period in 2016. Italy Italian coal imports increased to 8.0 Mt in the first half of 2017, compared with 7.5 Mt in the same period  of 2016. Italy reinforced its place as the second largest crude steel producer in the European Union, after  Germany. This is reflected by increased coking coal imports.  The Netherlands The coal-fired generation capacity of the Netherlands has increased in recent years, from 3.9 GW to  4.7 GW, which is reflected in the higher coal imports, estimated at 7.9 Mt in the first half of 2017. Poland Hard coal production in Poland slightly decreased in the first half of 2017 to 32.8 Mt, -4.4% compared  with same period in 2016. The largest producers remain: Polska Grupa Grnicza (45% of the market),  Jastrzebska Spolka W?glowa, mostly specialised in coking coal (23% of the market) and LW Bogdanka  (14% of the market). Spain Coal production in the first half of 2017 was 1.7 Mt, a massive increase (+41.6%) from the same period  of the previous year. Provisional figures for coal imports show an increase to around 9.4 Mt, from 6.6 Mt in the same period in 2016, following low renewable power generation. Turkey Coal production and imports in Turkey remained relatively stable in the first half of the year. Hard coal  production remained at the same level as in the first half of 2016, at 0.7 Mt; while lignite production  increased to 26.5 Mt. Coal imports slightly declined to 15.8 Mt in the first half of 2017, from 16.1 Mt in  the same period of 2016. United Kingdom In the first half of 2017, coal represented 8.3% of generation in the UK. Coal production was 1.6 Mt  (down -15.8% compared with the same period of 2016) and imports stood at 4.0 Mt, following the  decline in coal generation. The main coal suppliers to the market in the first half of 2017 were UK  producers (1.57 Mt, 32%), followed by Russia (1.36 Mt, 28%) and USA (1.15 Mt, 24%). Coal stocks are  now very low.Ukraine Stocks at Ukrainian coal-fired power plants dropped to 1.1 Mt, mainly due to an anthracite deficit caused  by the seizure of mining assets in Donbass in March 2017 and a G-grade coal shortage caused by the  switching of coal units from A-grade (anthracite) to G-grade. LIGNITE Bulgaria Coal utilisation and production increased in the first half of 2017, in comparison with the same period  of 2016. Lignite production increased to 16.7 Mt (+40.3% in comparison with the same period of 2016),  while lignite deliveries to power plants stood at 16.9 Mt (+22.4%).Czech Republic Brown coal production in the Czech Republic slightly increased to 19.3 Mt in the first half of 2017 (+4%  compared with the same period of 2016), most being utilised in electricity production (14.9 Mt). Brown  coal exports slightly increased to 0.4 Mt (+1%), mainly to Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. Brown coal  imports were very minor, 0.07 Mt from Germany. Germany Lignite production in first half of 2017 was 86.5 Mt in Germany, 3.2% higher than the same period of  2016. About 90% of lignite production (78.0 Mt) was used in power plants to generate electricity and  heat. Power generation from lignite was slightly higher in first half of 2017, at 75.2 TWh (2.4% higher  than the same period of 2016). In primary energy consumption, brown coal increased by 2.9%, while  nuclear energy dropped by 17.5%. Greece Lignite is an important fuel for power generation in Greece, with about one third of the electricity market (31% in 2016). Lignite production is expected to be around 37.0 Mt in 2017, at PPC and smaller mines.  Lignite-fired electricity generation in 2017 is expected to reach 16.8 TWh, higher than in 2016 (14.9 TWh).Hungary Coal production in Hungary stood at 3.5 Mt in the first half of 2017, lower than in the same period of  2016. Most of the lignite was used in electricity production, 3.4 Mt. Coal imports are low, mainly from  the Czech Republic, Poland and the United States, and stood at 0.7 Mt hard coal, mostly coking coal,  and 0.1 Mt brown coal. Poland In the first half of 2017, lignite production stood at 30.7 Mt, 8.3% higher than in the same period of 2016.  Lignite-fired electricity provided 26.6 TWh of the 83.0 TWh (32.0%) gross electricity generation in Poland,  higher than the share in 2016.Romania Lignite production increased to 12.3 Mt in the first half of 2017, most being mined by Oltenia Energy  Complex, the second largest electricity company in Romania. The company enjoys a very strong year,  both in terms of production and financially. Slovenia Lignite production increased to 1.9 Mt in the first half of 2017, 18% higher than the same period of 2016.  Coal-fired generation provided 2.2 TWh, 30.1% of the net electricity production in Slovenia in the first  six months of the year.