世界煤炭市場的發(fā)展-世界煤炭生產(chǎn)和海運(yùn)貿(mào)易的重要事件，動力煤價格正在改善，之前的焦煤價格上漲，主要是由于中國供應(yīng)減少。ARA的價格從2016年1月的45美元/噸(cif NWE)上漲到2016年8月的60美元/噸以上，這也受到了海運(yùn)費(fèi)緩慢回升的輕微推動。中國政府放松了對煤炭產(chǎn)量的限制，增加了煤礦的工作天數(shù)和產(chǎn)量。全球煤炭產(chǎn)量和貿(mào)易初步預(yù)測顯示，2015年全球煤炭產(chǎn)量略有下降，與2014年的7219噸相比，減少了7009噸，其中約6100噸是動力煤，900噸是煉焦煤。產(chǎn)量下降的主要原因是印度尼西亞的產(chǎn)量下降，部分原因是中國的產(chǎn)量下降。受產(chǎn)能過剩的影響，煤炭價格和趨勢蒸汽煤價格開始回升，在阿拉(安特衛(wèi)普-鹿特丹-阿姆斯特丹)港口超過60美元/噸。在經(jīng)歷了艱難的2015年后，煉焦煤價格也出現(xiàn)反彈。歐洲煤炭行業(yè)主要受到監(jiān)管挑戰(zhàn)的阻礙:碳定價，包括英國和歐盟碳排放交易體系(ETS)的碳排放下限稅;可再生能源補(bǔ)貼帶來的低電價;以及現(xiàn)代化的壓力，由于對公共和私人部門融資的武斷規(guī)定，這一任務(wù)變得更加困難。今年前6個月，捷克的硬煤產(chǎn)量小幅下降至3.6公噸(同比下降5%)，而褐煤產(chǎn)量幾乎保持在18.6公噸(同比下降1%)的水平。進(jìn)口的硬煤也下降了，降至1.3公噸(- 19%)，這是由于進(jìn)口的動力煤減少了。焦煤產(chǎn)量與上年持平，為0.6噸。出口增長至2.1噸(增長37%)，主要由焦煤推動。動力煤的主要出口市場在斯洛伐克和波蘭，而焦煤的主要出口市場在匈牙利和奧地利。2016年前兩個季度，德國剩下的兩個硬煤礦，Bottrop的er- haniel和Osnabruck附近的Ibbenburen，產(chǎn)量為2.6 Mt，與2015年同期相比下降了42%。這一下降主要是由于奧古斯特維多利亞礦計(jì)劃于2016年1月1日關(guān)閉。波蘭的硬煤產(chǎn)量基本保持不變，2016年上半年為34.3噸。煤炭進(jìn)口從3.5噸增加到3.9噸(增長8%)。波蘭扭轉(zhuǎn)了最近的趨勢，現(xiàn)在再次成為煤炭凈出口國。今年上半年，出口達(dá)到4.6噸，煉焦煤為1.2噸。與2015年同期相比，西班牙2016年上半年的煤炭產(chǎn)量下降到1.2噸(-14%)，而煤炭進(jìn)口下降到6.6噸(-25%)。煉焦煤進(jìn)口量幾乎保持在同一水平，為1.0 Mt，而動力煤進(jìn)口量降至5.6 Mt(-29%)。土耳其的褐煤產(chǎn)量為25.2 Mt(+22%)，較2015年下降后強(qiáng)勁回升，2016年上半年的硬煤產(chǎn)量為0.7 Mt(無變化)。今年上半年，中國進(jìn)口硬煤16.1萬噸，同比增長10%。與2015年同期相比，2016年上半年，英國燃煤發(fā)電量顯著下降(下降58%)，為18.15 TWh。烏克蘭煤炭產(chǎn)量從19.4噸下降到19.0噸，而2016年上半年進(jìn)口達(dá)到12.8噸，這些數(shù)據(jù)包括來自非政府控制地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量。據(jù)估計(jì)，2016年上半年愛爾蘭煤炭進(jìn)口量為1.0公噸(-17%)。這包括煙煤、無煙煤、專利燃料和BKB。2016年前6個月的泥炭產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為1.5公噸(-16%)。荷蘭去年新增了3.5吉瓦的燃煤發(fā)電能力，荷蘭的煤炭進(jìn)口量從2015年上半年的6.6噸增加到2016年上半年的6.9噸。在政治發(fā)展方面，荷蘭議會邀請政府討論有關(guān)RWE、Uniper和Engie的碳排放問題。保加利亞褐煤產(chǎn)量與2015年同期相比下降了27%，2016年上半年為11.9 Mt。Maritsa East 1 (BG)和Nea Santa (GR)之間的400千伏互聯(lián)電力線正在建設(shè)中，有強(qiáng)大的政治支持允許更多的保加利亞電力出口到希臘。2016年上半年德國褐煤產(chǎn)量為83.8 Mt，比2015年上半年下降2%。褐煤消費(fèi)量為75.8噸，較2015年同期下降1.2%。一次能源消耗方面，褐煤下降1.6%，硬煤下降1.9%;而天然氣和可再生能源有所增長。幾個月來，凈暗差低于凈暗差，但仍為正。希臘初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，燃煤電廠的發(fā)電量只有2008-09年危機(jī)前的一半。電力消耗降低、老機(jī)組環(huán)保限制、油氣價格較低、進(jìn)口電價較低(主要來自保加利亞、阿爾巴尼亞和意大利)、褐煤生產(chǎn)成本增加等因素都對褐煤產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響。2016年上半年，匈牙利的褐煤產(chǎn)量為4.3噸，與2015年上半年持平。煤炭進(jìn)口幾乎保持不變，為0.7噸。在政治發(fā)展方面，匈牙利的能源政策沒有變化;政府支持?jǐn)U大煤炭使用，包括在化工行業(yè)。2016年前6個月，羅馬尼亞的褐煤產(chǎn)量為10.2噸，比2015年同期下降11%。進(jìn)口量為0.5噸，與2015年上半年持平。羅馬尼亞主要的褐煤公司Complexul energy Oltenia正在從今年上半年的損失中恢復(fù)過來。然而，持續(xù)的管理不穩(wěn)定正在影響公司。波斯尼亞-黑塞哥維那一座300兆瓦的褐煤發(fā)電廠于2016年9月在波斯尼亞-黑塞哥維那北部的斯坦納里投產(chǎn)。該發(fā)電廠由中國東方電氣公司建造，由中國國家開發(fā)銀行提供3.5億歐元貸款。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS - WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Important events Thermal coal prices are improving, following the earlier gains in coking coal prices, mainly driven by  Chinese supply reduction. ARA prices increased from around 45 USD/tonne in January 2016 (cif NWE) to over 60 USD/tonne in August 2016, slightly pushed also by slowly recovering sea freight rates. The  Chinese government relaxed its curbs on coal output, increasing the allowed number of work days at  mines and their output. Global coal production and trade  Preliminary projections for 2015 show a slight decline in global coal production, 7 009 Mt in comparison  with 7 219 Mt in 2014, out of which about 6 100 Mt is steam coal and 900 Mt is coking coal. The decline  is mainly due to the production decrease in Indonesia and, partly, China.Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices are starting to recover, drawn by reduced overcapacity, passing the 60 USD/t at ARA  (Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam) ports. Coking coal prices recovered as well, after a difficult 2015. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET The coal industry in Europe is hampered by mainly regulatory challenges: carbon pricing, including the  carbon floor tax in the UK and EU ETS allowances; low electricity prices due to subsidised renewables;  and pressure to modernise, a task made more difficult due to arbitrary rules on public and private  financing for the sector. HARD COAL Czech Republic Production of hard coal slightly dropped to 3.6 Mt (-5% year-on-year) in the first six months, while lignite  remained at almost the same level 18.6 Mt (-1%). Imports of hard coal decreased as well, to 1.3 Mt (- 19%), driven by lower steam coal imports. Coking coal remained flat at 0.6 Mt. Exports increased to  2.1 Mt (+37%), mainly driven by coking coal (1.29 Mt, +61%). The main export markets for steam coal  were in Slovakia and Poland, while the main markets for coking coal were in Hungary and Austria.Germany In the first two quarters of 2016, the two remaining hard coal mines, Prosper-Haniel in Bottrop and  Ibbenbren near Osnabrck, produced 2.6 Mt, -42% in comparison with the same period in 2015. The  decline was caused mainly by the planned closure of Auguste Victoria mine on 1 January 2016. Poland Hard coal production in Poland remained almost the same, at 34.3 Mt in first half of 2016. Coal imports  increased from 3.5 to 3.9 Mt (+8%). Poland reversed the recent trend and it is now again a coal net coal  exporter. In the first half of the year, exports reached 4.6 Mt, coking coal being at 1.2 Mt.Spain Spain’s coal production dropped in the first half of 2016 to 1.2 Mt (-14%), while coal imports decreased  to 6.6 Mt (-25%) compared with the same period in 2015. Coking coal imports remained almost at the  same level, 1.0 Mt, while steam coal dropped to 5.6 Mt (-29%). Turkey Turkey produced 25.2 Mt of lignite (+22%), a strong recovery after the decrease in 2015, and 0.7 Mt (no  change) of hard coal in the first half of 2016. Hard coal imports in the first six months were 16.1 Mt, a  10% increase in comparison with the same period in 2015. United Kingdom Coal-fired electricity generation decreased significantly in H1 2016 (-58%), to 18.15 TWh, in comparison  with the same period in 2015. Ukraine Ukrainian coal production declined from 19.4 Mt to 19.0 Mt, while imports reached 12.8 Mt in the first  half of 2016, figures which include production from the non-governmental controlled territories. Ireland An estimate of coal imports for the first six months of 2016 in Ireland is 1.0 Mt (-17%). This includes  bituminous coal, anthracite, patent fuel and BKB. The estimate for peat production is 1.5 Mt for the first  six months of 2016 (-16%). Netherlands With 3.5 GW of new coal-fired capacity added to the Dutch grid last year, coal imports to the Netherlands  increased from 6.6 Mt in H1 2015 to 6.9 Mt in H1 2016. On political developments, the Dutch parliament has invited the government for discussions on carbon  emissions which concerns RWE, Uniper and Engie.LIGNITE Bulgaria Bulgarian lignite production decreased by 27%, to 11.9 Mt in the first half of 2016 in comparison with  the same period in 2015. Coal imports dropped by 43% to 0.4 Mt. The 400 kV Interconnection Power Line between Maritsa East 1 (BG) and Nea Santa (GR) is progressing,  with strong political support to allow more Bulgarian electricity exports to Greece. Germany Lignite production in the first half of 2016 was 83.8 Mt, 2% below H1 2015. Lignite consumption, at  75.8 Mt, was 1.2% lower than the same period in 2015. In terms of primary energy consumption, lignite decreased by 1.6% and hard coal decreased by 1.9%;  while gas and renewables had gains. Clean dark spreads were lower than clean dark spreads for some  months, but still positive. Greece Preliminary data shows that electricity production from coal-fired power plants was half the level seen  before the crisis of 2008-09. Lower electricity consumption, environmental restrictions on old units, low  oil and gas prices, low imported electricity prices (mainly from Bulgaria, Albania and Italy) and increased  lignite production costs, caused by an increased stripping ratio, all had a negative impact on lignite. Hungary Hungary produced 4.3 Mt of lignite in the first six months of 2016, the same output as in H1 2015. Coal  imports remained almost the same as well, at 0.7 Mt. On political developments, there is no change in Hungarian energy policy; the government supports the  expansion of coal use, including in the chemical industry. Romania In the first six months of 2016, 10.2 Mt of lignite were produced, 11% less than the same period in 2015.  Imports were 0.5 Mt, the same level as H1 2015. The main Romanian lignite company, Complexul Energetic Oltenia, is recovering from losses incurred  during the first part of the year. However, continuous managerial instability is affecting the company. Bosnia and Herzegovina A 300 MW lignite-fired power plant came online in September 2016 at Stanari in northern Bosnia and  Herzegovina. The power plant was built by China's Dongfang Electric Corp and financed by the China  Development Bank with a €350 million loan.