首頁 > 資料下載 > 面對氣候變化的世界中的不合理預測Unreasonable projections in a world confronting climate change

面對氣候變化的世界中的不合理預測Unreasonable projections in a world confronting climate change

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更新時間：2021-09-09
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美國能源情報署(EIA)編制其年度能源展望(AEO)，以提供一系列情景，從反映現(xiàn)有政策的情景(參考案例)到假設經(jīng)濟條件導致燃煤電廠加速退休的情景(燃煤電廠加速退休)。EIA很清楚，這些預測反映的是某些因素，而不是預測或預測。參考案例是指沒有公布或制定新政策，具有日落條款的現(xiàn)有政策確實無效，且技術以穩(wěn)定的速度發(fā)展的情形。因此，這是煤炭需求的一個重要方面，而且這種需求水平極有可能出現(xiàn)下降。在過去幾年中，實際結(jié)果與參考案例預測相差甚遠。有時，EIA會根據(jù)特定的政策建議，包括《美國能源法案》和《美國清潔能源與安全法案》，做出預測。這些模型采用了與法律目標相一致的排放限制(這反過來又與奧巴馬在哥本哈根的承諾相一致)。這些預測在過去的五年中被證明比那些假設沒有約束的預測要準確得多，盡管這些法律從未被制定出來。這有力地表明，政策和技術是隨著總的減排目標而來的，這些目標應該是發(fā)行人在提供前瞻性信息時考慮的主要指標。盡管如此，煤炭企業(yè)一直強調(diào)參考案例。本文討論了為什么環(huán)評參考案例不適合作為煤炭行業(yè)財務規(guī)劃和戰(zhàn)略的依據(jù)，并回顧了環(huán)評參考案例在行業(yè)規(guī)劃和戰(zhàn)略中的應用?，F(xiàn)在，2016年的參考案例反映了清潔能源計劃，我們不禁要問，巴黎的排放限制是否將被證明是正確的領先指標?

The EIA produces its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) to provide a range of scenarios, from one re?ecting existing policies (the Reference Case) to one that assumes economic conditions which drive accelerated coal plant retirements (Accelerated Coal Retirements). The EIA is very clear that these are projections re?ecting certain factors, NOT predictions or forecasts. The Reference Case is by defnition a scenario in which no announced or new policies are enacted, existing policies with sunset provisions do become ineffective, and technology evolves at a steady pace. This is therefore a high case for coal demand, and there is every likelihood of a downside from this demand level. Indeed, actual results over the past several years have departed dramatically from Reference Case projections. EIA modelling of emissions reduction targets more accurate On occasion, the EIA has built projections based on specifc policy proposals, including the American Power Act and the American Clean Energy & Security Act. These models employed emissions constraints consistent with the laws’ targets (which, in turn, were largely consistent with Obama’s Copenhagen pledges). These projections have proven far more accurate over the past fve years than those that assumed no constraints even though the laws were never enacted. This strongly suggests that policy and technology are following in the wake of the overall emissions reductions targets and that those targets should be a leading indicator to be considered by issuers in providing forward-looking information. That said, coal companies have consistently emphasized the Reference Case. This paper discusses why the EIA Reference Case is not an appropriate basis for coal sector fnancial planning and strategy, and reviews how it has been utilized in industry SEC flings. With the 2016 Reference Case now re?ecting the Clean Power Plan, we ask whether the Paris emissions constraints will prove to be the correct lead indicator?

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