China is in a period of development and transformation, and its energy prospects will be vastly different from those of the past. Over the years, people's descriptions of China's energy situation mainly emphasize how amazing the pace of China's development is, how successfully China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and how eager China is for all kinds of energy, mainly coal and oil. These views are still valid, but China is speeding up the transformation of its development mode to a service-based economy and a cleaner energy structure. Compared with the early energy intensive development, the impact of the new development direction on China and the world is equally important. Under the new policy scenario, China's energy demand growth rate has dropped to about 1% per year, less than one sixth of the country's annual average since 2000. This is a comprehensive effect brought about by the transformation of economic structure, the implementation of strong energy efficiency policies and population changes. By 2040, the growth level of total energy demand will be basically the same as that of 2008-2016. As the economy continues to grow rapidly, the average growth rate is 4.5% per year, equivalent to 3.4% improvement in energy intensity per year. According to our forecast, this is the fastest improvement rate in the world by 2040. By 2040, China's per capita energy consumption will also increase by a quarter, surpassing that of the EU around 2035. China's growing energy demand is increasingly dependent on renewable energy, natural gas and electricity, while coal demand has fallen. The growth of electricity and renewable energy demand is closely related to the diversification and cleaning of China's energy structure. By 2040, coal's share of total power generation will fall from two-thirds in 2016 to less than 40%. The growth of electricity and natural gas demand is closely related to the industrial and civil sectors, because these energy sources meet the energy demand of the light industry sector and meet the growing demand for air quality. China also applies biomass energy to industry, uses solar energy for heating and uses biofuels for transportation, thus increasing the direct use of renewable energy in the end consumer industry. By 2040, electricity will dominate China's end energy consumption, surpassing coal by the late 1920s and oil soon thereafter. By 2040, the demand for natural gas will rise to more than 600 billion cubic meters, making China the second largest natural gas market in the world after the United States, and the main source of global natural gas demand growth: during this period, the share of natural gas in China's main energy structure will rise from less than 6% to more than 12%. At the same time, with coal-fired power generation peaking and the structural decline in heavy industry coal and residential heating coal, China's coal demand will eventually be far below 2016 levels. Coal's share of China's primary energy mix will shrink by 20 percentage points to about 45% by 2040. China has become the largest oil consumer in the world, but it is no longer the main source of the growth of world oil demand. China is the main force in the oil market. The gap between the average daily demand of 11.5 million barrels and the average daily output of 4 million barrels in 2016 makes China the largest oil importer in the world. By 2030, the continued growth in transportation fuel demand means that China will replace the United States as the world's largest oil consumer. By then, China's oil demand growth will tend to moderate, and India is expected to become the main source of global oil consumption growth after 2025. By 2040, the growth of China's passenger car ownership will slow down, a quarter of the cars will be electric vehicles, and strict fuel economy indicators will limit the consumption of oil by other vehicles. China's passenger car fuel consumption is expected to decline after 2030.

中國(guó)正處在發(fā)展變革時(shí)期，其能源前景將與過(guò)去有著天壤之別。多年來(lái)， 大家對(duì)中國(guó)能源狀況的描述主要是強(qiáng)調(diào)中國(guó)的發(fā)展步伐有多么驚人、中國(guó)是如何 成功讓億萬(wàn)群眾擺脫貧困，以及中國(guó)對(duì)各種能源，主要是煤炭和石油是多么的渴 求。這些觀點(diǎn)現(xiàn)在仍然有效，但是中國(guó)正在加快發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變，向以服務(wù)為基 礎(chǔ)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和更清潔的能源結(jié)構(gòu)邁進(jìn)。與早期的能源密集型發(fā)展相比，新的發(fā)展方 向?qū)χ袊?guó)和世界帶來(lái)的影響同樣重要。 在新政策情景下，中國(guó)的能源需求增長(zhǎng)速度下降到每年1%左右，不到該國(guó) 自2000年以來(lái)的年平均水平的六分之一。這是經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變、強(qiáng)勁能源效率政 策實(shí)施和人口變化所帶來(lái)的綜合效應(yīng)。到2040年，能源需求總量的增長(zhǎng)水平將 與2008年至2016年這八年期間的增長(zhǎng)水平基本持平。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)，平 均增長(zhǎng)率為每年4.5％，相當(dāng)于能源強(qiáng)度每年改善3.4％，據(jù)我們預(yù)測(cè)，這是截至 2040年世界范圍內(nèi)最快的改善速度。到2040年，中國(guó)人均能源消費(fèi)量也將增長(zhǎng)四 分之一，將在2035年左右超越歐盟。 中國(guó)日益增長(zhǎng)的能源需求正越來(lái)越多地依賴可再生能源、天然氣和電力；而 煤炭需求有所回落。電力和可再生能源需求的增長(zhǎng)與中國(guó)能源結(jié)構(gòu)的多樣化和清 潔化密切相關(guān)。到2040年，煤炭在總發(fā)電量中所占份額將從2016年的三分之二降 到40％以下。電力和天然氣需求的增長(zhǎng)與工業(yè)和民用部門是密切相關(guān)的，因?yàn)檫@ 些能源滿足了輕工業(yè)部門的能源需求又契合了人們對(duì)空氣質(zhì)量日益增長(zhǎng)的要求。 中國(guó)還將生物質(zhì)能應(yīng)用到工業(yè)中，將太陽(yáng)能用于供暖以及運(yùn)用生物燃料運(yùn)輸，從 而增加終端消費(fèi)行業(yè)對(duì)可再生能源的直接利用。到2040年，電力將在中國(guó)的終端 能源消費(fèi)中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，到21世紀(jì)20年代后期超過(guò)煤炭，此后不久將會(huì)超過(guò)石油。到2040年，天然氣需求量將上升到6000億立方米以上，使中國(guó)成為僅次于美 國(guó)的全球第二大天然氣市場(chǎng)，也是全球天然氣需求增長(zhǎng)的最主要來(lái)源：在此期 間，天然氣在中國(guó)主要能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的份額將從不到6％上升至12％以上。與此同 時(shí)，隨著燃煤發(fā)電的發(fā)電量達(dá)到峰值，以及重工業(yè)用煤和居民供熱用煤出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu) 性下滑，中國(guó)的煤炭需求最終將遠(yuǎn)低于2016年的水平。煤炭在中國(guó)一次能源結(jié)構(gòu) 中的份額將縮減20個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，到2040年約為45％。 中國(guó)成為世界上最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)，但不再是世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)的最主要來(lái) 源。中國(guó)是石油市場(chǎng)的主力軍，2016年1150萬(wàn)桶的日均需求量和400萬(wàn)桶的日均 產(chǎn)量之間的差距，使中國(guó)成為世界上最大的石油進(jìn)口國(guó)。到2030年，運(yùn)輸燃料需 求的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)意味著中國(guó)將取代美國(guó)成為世界上最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)。到那時(shí)，中 國(guó)的石油需求增長(zhǎng)將趨于平緩，預(yù)計(jì)到2025年以后，印度將成為全球石油消費(fèi)增 長(zhǎng)的主要來(lái)源。到2040年，中國(guó)的乘用車保有量的增長(zhǎng)將減緩，四分之一的汽車 將是電動(dòng)車，嚴(yán)格的燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性指標(biāo)將限制其他車輛對(duì)油品的消費(fèi)。預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)的 乘用車油耗將在2030年后下滑。