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首頁 > 資料下載 > Prosperity of the industry improves, and the reform of the power market is accelerating行業(yè)景氣度提升,電力市場化
Prosperity of the industry improves, and the reform of the power market is accelerating行業(yè)景氣度提升,電力市場化 Prosperity of the industry improves, and the reform of the power market is accelerating行業(yè)景氣度提升,電力市場化

Prosperity of the industry improves, and the reform of the power market is accelerating行業(yè)景氣度提升,電力市場化

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1. The international atomic energy agency deals with global nuclear technology-related issues in accordance with the provisions of its statute.In carrying out this mandate, the agency has sought to provide independent and objective advice on the use of nuclear technology for development and in the promotion of nuclear safety and security and in activities related to nuclear verification.In 2009, the iaea placed particular emphasis on assisting member states to meet their energy needs through nuclear technology, to respond to climate change concerns, to help ensure food security and access to clean water, and to strengthen health care.The following is an overview of nuclear-related developments worldwide in 2009 and how they affect the work of the iaea.  Nuclear technology Nuclear power, nuclear fuel cycle and sustainable developmentCurrent situation and trend of nuclear powerDemand for global energy and interest in nuclear power continued to rise in 2009.Construction began on 11 new nuclear-powered reactors, the most since 1987.Forecasts for future nuclear power growth have been revised up again.For example, China, India and the Russian federation have all significantly increased their development goals.But during the year, only two new reactors were brought online, compared with three decommissioned, and the world's total nuclear capacity fell slightly for the second year in a row.With the closure of the ignalina-2 unit in Lithuania, the number of countries with operating nuclear power plants fell to 29.3. As of 1 January 2010, a total of 437 nuclear-powered reactors were in operation, with a total capacity of 370 gigawatts(electric).Fifty-five reactors are under construction, the largest number since 1992.The current expansion and near-term and long-term growth prospects remain centered in Asia, not least because of the region's strong economic growth.Ten of the 11 reactors under construction are in Asia, compared with 36 of 55 under constructionAnd 30 of the 41 new reactors recently brought online are also in Asia. The global financial crisis that began in the second half of 2008 was cited as a factor in delaying the start of nuclear projects in some parts of the world.But the agency raised its low and high forecasts for global nuclear power growth by 8 per cent, partly because of increasingly firm commitments by governments, power companies and suppliers to build new reactors.The financial crisis has not materially changed the factors driving rising expectations for nuclear power.In particular, the key drivers remain the strong track record and safety of nuclear power, as well as continuing concerns about climate change, security of energy supplies, high and volatile fossil fuel prices and growth in energy demand.In April, the iaea organized the international ministerial conference on nuclear energy for the 21st century in Beijing, China.The meeting, hosted by the Chinese government, assessed the status and prospects of nuclear power, including progress in technological development, and discussed the actions needed to further expand nuclear power.The end of the meeting, said in a statement: "most of the attendees respect for countries to meet their international obligations ways to make the rights of the national energy policy at the same time, nuclear power as a proven, clean, safe, competitive technology, will for mankind in the 21st century and later period of the growing contribution to sustainable development."Commencement of nuclear programme6. With many countries, particularly developing countries, expressing interest in incorporating nuclear power into their energy mix, current national policies point to a substantial expansion of the use of nuclear power.In addition, many countries that already have nuclear power plants in operation are planning to expand power generation.7. More than 60 countries, mostly in the developing world, have notified iaea of their possible interest in initiating nuclear power programmes.Fifty-eight member states are participating in regional or national technical cooperation projects related to the introduction of nuclear power.Seventeen of those countries are working on national nuclear power plans, with one choosing a nuclear power plant to build at the end of the year and one building its first.Increased interest among member states has led to a threefold increase in the number of technical cooperation projects related to nuclear power in the iaea technical cooperation cycle 2009-2011 (figure 1).Iaea has launched a new integrated nuclear infrastructure assessment service to match the milestones developed by the agency to provide guidance to member states when they initiate nuclear power projects.Review of national infrastructure needs.The first three integrated nuclear infrastructure review teams visited Indonesia, Jordan and Vietnam.Opportunities for international cooperation between new entrants and suppliers were identified at an iaea workshop in November, and new publications were issued on the financing of nuclear power plants and on the responsibilities and capabilities of owners and operators implementing new nuclear power plans.

6月份,全社會用電量同比增長8.0%,增速同比提高1.5個百分點;今年上半年全社會用電量同比增長9.4%,增速同比提高了3.1個百分點,用電量維持較快增長。上半年,6,000千瓦以上電廠發(fā)電設備容量同比增長6.2%,增速較上年同期下降0.7個百分點,繼續(xù)保持放緩的趨勢。受益于行業(yè)景氣度提升,上半年發(fā)電設備平均利用小時數(shù)同比增加69小時。國家發(fā)改委、國家能源局近期聯(lián)合發(fā)文,要求加快推進電力市場化交易,建立市場化價格形成機制。電力市場化交易規(guī)模將繼續(xù)擴大,行業(yè)優(yōu)勝劣汰或將加快,行業(yè)集中度有望提升。火電方面,發(fā)電量增長較快,市場化交易價差逐漸縮窄,煤炭價格逐漸回歸綠色區(qū)間,火電企業(yè)業(yè)績有望繼續(xù)改善,可關注優(yōu)質火電企業(yè),相關標的有華能國際、華電國際、皖能電力、粵電力A。水電方面,增值稅優(yōu)惠政策取消或將影響企業(yè)盈利,但下半年來水情況預計偏豐,水電企業(yè)業(yè)績有望穩(wěn)中有升,可關注高股息率的長江電力以及“水火互補”的國投電力。核電方面,第三代機組建設進展順利,臺山、三門核電機組已實現(xiàn)首次并網(wǎng),預計年內(nèi)將實現(xiàn)商運,第三代核電技術有望獲得驗證。在嚴控煤電裝機和水電裝機增速放緩的前提下,第三代核電技術的落地將有力地推動新項目審批重啟,可關注中國核電。

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