The international atomic energy agency and the world 20041. The outlook for nuclear power continued to change in 2004;The increasing role of nuclear applications in global sustainable development initiatives;Global nuclear developments such as expanding international cooperation on security and security issues and a growing awareness of the need to strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime present new challenges and opportunities for the iaea.The present report highlights the agency's response to these challenges through its activities within the three-pillar framework of technology, safety and verification.technologyCurrent situation and trend of nuclear power2. 2004 marks the 50th anniversary of civil nuclear power production.Fifty years ago in obinsk, the Russian federation, nuclear power was first put on the grid.Since then, the world has seen a steady increase in nuclear power, accompanied by a gradual shift in energy demand to the developing world.Today, even though 94% of the world's nuclear capacity is in industrialized countries, developing countries account for 60% of the new reactors under construction.3. With 440 power reactors in operation around the world at the end of 2004, nuclear power continues to account for about 16 per cent of world electricity production and has kept pace with the steady growth of the global electricity market.By the end of 2004, 26 nuclear power plants were being built around the world, most of them (18) in Asia.4. Five new units were integrated into the grid during the year, one each in China, Japan and the Russian federation, and two in Ukraine.An idle unit in Canada has been reconnected to the grid, and construction has begun on the 500 megawatt (e) prototype fast reactor in India and the 866 megawatt (e) pot-3 pressurized water reactor in Japan.Five of the units have been retired. They are: four 50mw units in the UKUnit and Lithuanian 1185 mw ignalina-1 unit.5. In Western Europe, Finland has begun the excavation of the olkiluoto-3 nuclear power plant, which will be the first to be built in the area since 1991.Edf has also selected a site at flemanville for a European demonstration PWR, which is expected to begin construction in 2007.6. In the United States, the NRC has granted an additional 11 permit extensions of 20 years each (a total of 60 years for each nuclear power plant), bringing the total number of permit extensions approved to 30.To date, about three of the 104 nuclear power plants in the United States have either obtained, applied for, or indicated their intention to apply for license renewal.The U.S. department of energy has also approved financial assistance for two industrial consortia to conduct demonstration projects for nuclear power plant licenses, raising the prospect of new nuclear construction in the United States in the near future.7. While the real future of nuclear power remains unclear, expectations are rising markedly.The agency's most recent forecasts, published in 2004 (see chart 1), differ markedly from four years ago.The agency's low-value projections, based on the most conservative assumptions, estimated global nuclear capacity at 427 gigawatts in 2020, equivalent to 127 additional 1,000mw plants over the 2000 projections.8. The projected changes stem from specific plans and actions taken by a number of countries to expand nuclear power.New projections for nuclear power, especially long-term ones, have also been reinforced by the entry into force of the Kyoto protocol.The DE facto absence of restrictions or taxes on greenhouse gas emissions in the past means that the low emissions advantages of nuclear power have not produced real economic value.The broad and harmonised emissions limits provided for in the Kyoto protocol are likely to change that in the longer term.9. The majority of the increase in nuclear power generation over the past decade has not been due to the contribution of new nuclear power plants, but to improvements in the utilization of existing power plants, changes that are directly related to improvements in global safety performance.As a result, existing well-functioning nuclear plants have become increasingly valuable assets.Although the initial basic investment in nuclear power plants is high, operating costs are relatively low and stable.10. However, not every country shares the view that improved economic and safety performance justifies the revival of nuclear power.In Western Europe, for example, Belgium, Germany and Sweden are currently in the process of phasing out nuclear power, while other countries, including Austria, Denmark and Ireland, have declared their opposition to nuclear power.

國際原子能機構和世界2004

1. 在2004年中，核電前景的不斷變化；核應用在全球可持續(xù)發(fā)展行動中的作用日 增；安全和保安問題的國際合作日益擴大以及對加強防止核擴散制度必要性的認識不斷 深入等諸如此類的全球核發(fā)展為國際原子能機構帶來了新的挑戰(zhàn)和機遇。本報告重點闡 述原子能機構通過在技術、安全和核查三大支柱框架內開展的活動對這些挑戰(zhàn)所做響 應的情況。

技術

核電的現(xiàn)狀與趨勢

2. 2004年是民用核電生產50周年。50年前在俄羅斯聯(lián)邦奧布寧斯克，核動力發(fā)電首 次被送入電網。此后，世界目睹了核電的穩(wěn)步增長，同時也伴隨著能源需求增長逐漸轉 向發(fā)展中國家。今天，縱然世界核電裝機容量的94%是在工業(yè)化國家，但發(fā)展中國家占 有正在建設的新反應堆的數(shù)量則達60%。

3. 截至2004年底，世界各地有440座動力堆在運行，核能繼續(xù)占世界電力生產約16%, 并與全球電力市場的穩(wěn)步增長保持同步。到2004年底，世界各地有26座核電廠正在建 設，其中大多數(shù)（18座）是在亞洲。

4. 在這一年中有5臺新機組并入電網，其中中國、日本和俄羅斯聯(lián)邦各1臺，烏克蘭 2臺。加拿大1臺閑置的機組重新并網，印度的500兆瓦（電）原型快堆和日本的866 兆瓦（電）泊-3號壓水堆已開工建造。5臺機組已經退休，它們是：英國4臺50兆瓦

（電）機組和立陶宛1185兆瓦（電）Ignalina-1號機組。

5. 在西歐，芬蘭已開始Olkiluoto-3號核電機組的開挖工作，這將是自1991年以來在 該地區(qū)新建的第一臺機組。法國電力公司也為1座歐洲示范壓水堆選擇了位于弗拉芒維 爾的場址，預計該壓水堆將于2007年開始建造。

6. 在美國，核管理委員會已批準另外11個許可證各延長20年（每座核電廠的許可壽 期總計為60年），從而使已批準許可證延長的總數(shù)達到30個。迄今，美國104座核電 廠中約四方之三或已獲得，或已申請，或已表示打算申請許可證更新。美國能源部還批 準了對2個工業(yè)財團開展核電廠許可證審批示范項目的財政援助，這使美國新的核電建 設項目有望在近期成為可能。

7. 雖然核能的現(xiàn)實前景仍不明朗，但對它的期望值卻在明顯提升。原子能機構在2004 年發(fā)布的近期預測（見圖1）與4年前有明顯不同。原子能機構基于最保守假設所作的 低值預測估計2020年全球核電裝機容量為427吉瓦，相當于比2000年的預測增加127 座1000兆瓦的核電廠。

8. 這種預測變化來源于一些國家為擴大核電所制訂的具體計劃和行動。對核電的新預 測特別是長期預測也因《京都議定書》生效而得到加強。過去對溫室氣體排放實際上沒 有實施限制或征稅意味著核電的低排放優(yōu)勢并沒有產生實際的經濟價值?！毒┒甲h定 書》規(guī)定的廣泛而協(xié)調的排放限制從較長遠看將有可能改變這種狀況。

9. 過去10年中核發(fā)電量的大部分增長并不是由于新建核電廠的貢獻，而是歸功于現(xiàn) 有電廠利用率的提高，這種變化與全球安全實績的改進直接相關。其結果是，現(xiàn)有運行 良好的核電廠已日益成為寶貴的資產。雖然核電廠的初始基本投資很高，但運行費用則 相對較低而且穩(wěn)定。

10. 然而，并非每個國家都贊同這種觀點，即改善經濟性和安全實績?yōu)楹穗姀吞K提供了 正當理由。例如在西歐，比利時、德國和瑞典目前正在實行逐步取消核能的政策，而包 括奧地利、丹麥和愛爾蘭在內的其他一些國家已宣布反對核電的政策。