首頁 > 資料下載 > 他們可能是巨人：新興的液化天然氣進(jìn)口國如何重塑水上天然氣市場THEY MIGHT BE GIANTS: How New and Emerging LNG Importers Are Reshaping

他們可能是巨人：新興的液化天然氣進(jìn)口國如何重塑水上天然氣市場THEY MIGHT BE GIANTS: How New and Emerging LNG Importers Are Reshaping

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更新時間：2021-09-23
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幾年來，許多液化天然氣（LNG）市場觀察家一直預(yù)計，水上運(yùn)輸市場將更加寬松，價格也將下降。主要由于澳大利亞和美國出口激增，自2014年年中以來，新供應(yīng)以前所未有的速度進(jìn)入市場，而且這種擴(kuò)張將持續(xù)到本世紀(jì)末。不過，盡管現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣價格較2011-14年的高位有所下降，但現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣市場似乎并未出現(xiàn)實質(zhì)性的松動。本文旨在證明，面對日益增長的供應(yīng)，實際液化天然氣市場仍然相當(dāng)緊張，并檢驗這種緊張的一個低估的驅(qū)動因素：2014年以來，一批新的和新興的液化天然氣進(jìn)口國的巨大需求增長。在不斷擴(kuò)大的浮式儲油和再氣化裝置（FSRUs）船隊的推動下，這些新興進(jìn)口商迅速顛覆了傳統(tǒng)觀念，即液化天然氣市場已進(jìn)入結(jié)構(gòu)性供過于求時期。該報的主要收獲如下：

For several years, many liquefied natural gas (LNG) market observers have been anticipating looser waterborne markets and lower prices. Primarily due to surging exports from Australia and the United States, new supply has been entering the market at an unprecedented pace since mid-2014, and this expansion is set to continue through the end of the decade. However, the physical LNG market does not appear to have loosened substantially, even though spot LNG prices are down from the lofty levels of 2011–14, following Japan’s Fukushima crisis. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that physical LNG markets have remained quite tight in the face of growing supply and to examine an underappreciated driver of this tightness: enormous demand growth by a group of new and emerging LNG importers since 2014. Facilitated by an expanding fleet of floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), these emerging importers have quickly upended the conventional wisdom that the LNG market has entered a period of structural oversupply. The paper’s key takeaways are the following:

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