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實現(xiàn)中國頁巖氣目標MEETING CHINA’S SHALE GAS GOALS

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更新時間：2021-09-21
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為了幫助抗擊空氣污染和減少對進口的依賴，中國政府為頁巖氣生產(chǎn)設(shè)定了雄心勃勃的目標。然而，挑戰(zhàn)是巨大的。中國的頁巖比美國的類似巖石還要深，美國的“頁巖革命”改變了能源市場。中國的許多頁巖都位于山區(qū)。其他“地上”因素——包括高昂的初始生產(chǎn)成本、缺乏競爭、對國有企業(yè)的激勵不足、有限的數(shù)據(jù)可用性和外國企業(yè)的不確定條件——使這些問題更加復(fù)雜。缺乏人手的監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和不清楚的當局增加了負面環(huán)境后果的風(fēng)險。中國的頁巖氣生產(chǎn)才剛剛起步。迄今為止，已經(jīng)鉆了大約200口井（相比之下，美國大約有100000口井）。未來幾年，中國的頁巖產(chǎn)量不會很大。從中長期來看，低增長和高增長情景都是合理的。這份報告發(fā)現(xiàn)，政策是實現(xiàn)中國頁巖氣潛力的關(guān)鍵。政府在中國經(jīng)濟中的作用至關(guān)重要，特別是在能源領(lǐng)域。更廣泛的經(jīng)濟改革的進展和細節(jié)，以及針對頁巖氣的政策內(nèi)容，將從根本上決定中國頁巖氣產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長。推動頁巖氣行業(yè)創(chuàng)新的政策將特別重要。中央和省級政策都將發(fā)揮作用。中國烴源巖的質(zhì)量也將是關(guān)鍵。目前，關(guān)于中國頁巖的地質(zhì)情況及其對天然氣生產(chǎn)的適用性仍不清楚（而且很多已知的都是專有的）。但無論中國的地質(zhì)條件對頁巖氣生產(chǎn)有利還是更具挑戰(zhàn)性，政府政策都將在該行業(yè)的未來發(fā)揮核心作用。

To help fight air pollution and reduce reliance on imports, the Chinese government has set ambitious goals for shale gas production. Yet the challenges are substantial. Chinese shale is deeper than similar rock in the United States, where a “shale revolution” has transformed energy markets. Much Chinese shale lies under mountainous terrain. Other “above-ground” factors — including high initial production costs, lack of competition, weak incentives for state-owned enterprises, limited data availability and uncertain conditions for foreign businesses — compound these problems. Understaffed regulatory agencies with unclear authorities raise the risk of negative environmental consequences. Shale gas production in China is just starting. Roughly 200 wells have been drilled to date (in comparison to roughly 100,000 in the United States). In the next few years, Chinese shale production will not be substantial. In the medium and long term, low growth and high growth scenarios are both plausible. This report finds that policies hold the key to realizing China’s shale gas potential. Government’s role in China’s economy is central, especially in the energy sector. The progress and details of broader economic reforms and content of shale-specific policies will fundamentally shape the growth of China’s shale gas industry. Policies promoting innovation in the shale gas sector will be especially important. Central government and provincial policies will both play a role. The quality of China’s source rock will also be key. Currently much about the geology of Chinese shale and its suitability for natural gas production remains unknown (and much of what is known is proprietary). But whether geologic conditions in China prove favorable for shale gas production or more challenging, government policies will play a central role in the future of the sector.

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