燃料補貼制度的改革對于尼日利亞經(jīng)濟的全面改革以及實現(xiàn)包容性和可持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟多樣化和增長至關(guān)重要。近年來，燃料補貼占經(jīng)常預(yù)算的三分之一以上，構(gòu)成了巨大的資源浪費，本來可以更有效地用于扶貧干預(yù)經(jīng)濟。由于擔(dān)心價格大幅上漲帶來的政治后果，再加上腐敗現(xiàn)象普遍存在，以及燃油補貼制度受益者的壓力，歷屆政府都對改革燃油補貼制度猶豫不決。然而，人們對改革的必要性越來越達成共識，改革的核心是取消燃油補貼。 這項研究最初于2015年夏季進行，其主要目的是對補償機制進行詳細分析，這些補償機制可用于減輕取消燃料補貼對尼日利亞社會弱勢群體的影響，作為對政府圍繞即將到來的改革進行規(guī)劃的投入。這次以來，布哈里政府對汽油和煤油補貼進行了重大改革，出臺了新的“調(diào)價”政策，在供應(yīng)出現(xiàn)重大問題的同時，這兩種燃料的價格在2016年初都出現(xiàn)了上調(diào)，推動國內(nèi)許多地區(qū)的價格高于官方水平。根據(jù)截至2016年年中的現(xiàn)行政策內(nèi)容，本研究的結(jié)論與以往一樣具有相關(guān)性：建議政府在決定必須減輕未來物價持續(xù)上漲的社會影響時，可以采取的可行建議；同時，考慮到補貼改革所創(chuàng)造的財政空間，建議政府在一般預(yù)算中投資的扶貧政策。 這項分析的動力是必須找到一種更有效的方式，將燃料補貼預(yù)算重新分配給直接惠及窮人的發(fā)展活動。該研究的方法論方法借鑒了尼日利亞和其他國家在燃料補貼改革方面已經(jīng)做的大量工作（例如，尼日利亞石油部門透明度基金（FOSTER）、公共政策替代中心（CPPA）、全球補貼倡議（GSI），世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織（貨幣基金組織）。它包括分析尼日利亞的各種現(xiàn)有機制的第三方文件，可以用于補償窮人的經(jīng)濟政策的不利影響，補充了一系列關(guān)鍵的線人訪談（KIIS）與主要利益相關(guān)者參與這些機制的實施。該分析還借鑒了與補貼改革有關(guān)的補償機制的國際經(jīng)驗，重點是與尼日利亞相當(dāng)?shù)膰遥⒖紤]了尼日利亞政府圍繞過去國內(nèi)價格改革所采用的補償機制的有效性。
The reform of the fuel subsidy regime is fundamental to the overhaul of the Nigerian economy and achievement of inclusive—and sustainable—economic diversification and growth. In recent years, fuel subsidy has taken up over a third of the recurrent budget, constituting a huge waste of resources that could have been spent more effectively on pro-poor interventions in the economy. Fear of the political consequences of large price increases coupled with widespread corruption and pressure from those benefiting from the fuel subsidy regime have made successive governments hesitant to reform the system. However, there has been a growing consensus on the imperative of reform, at the heart of which is the elimination of fuel subsidies. When it was initially conducted in the summer of 2015, the main objective of this study was to conduct a detailed analysis of the compensation mechanisms that could be used to mitigate the impact of fuel subsidy removal on weak and vulnerable segments of Nigerian society, as an input to government planning around upcoming reforms. Since this time, the Buhari government has introduced major reforms to gasoline and kerosene subsidies, with the a new “price modulation” policy that has seen upward adjustments in the price of both fuels in early 2016—at the same time that major problems with supply continue, driving domestic prices above official levels in many areas. In the light of the current policy content as of mid-2016, the findings of this study are as relevant as ever: suggesting actionable proposals that the government could pursue if it decides that it must mitigate the social impact of ongoing future price increases; and also suggesting pro-poor policies where the government could invest as part of its general budgeting, given the fiscal space created by subsidy reforms. The analysis is driven by the imperative of achieving a more efficient way of reallocating the fuel subsidy budget for developmental activities that directly benefit the poor. The study’s methodological approach draws on extensive work already done on the reform of fuel subsidy in Nigeria and other countries (e.g., by the Facility for Oil Sector Transparency in Nigeria (FOSTER), the Center for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA), the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI), World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It consists of analyzing third-party documentation about various existing mechanisms in Nigeria that can be used to compensate the poor for the adverse effects of economic policy, supplemented by a series of Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with major stakeholders involved in the implementation of these mechanisms. The analysis also draws on a review of international experiences with compensation mechanisms related to subsidy reform, focused on countries comparable to Nigeria, and considers the effectiveness of compensation mechanisms applied by Nigerian governments around past domestic price reforms.
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