首頁 > 資料下載 > 中東和北非地區(qū)的政治颶風(fēng)：社會契約變化背景下的能源定價改革NAVIGATING POLITICAL HURRICANES IN THE MENA REGION: ENERGY PRICING REFO

中東和北非地區(qū)的政治颶風(fēng)：社會契約變化背景下的能源定價改革NAVIGATING POLITICAL HURRICANES IN THE MENA REGION: ENERGY PRICING REFO

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本文分析了阿拉伯之春以來中東北非能源價格改革的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。由于低能源價格歷來是中東和北非大多數(shù)國家社會契約的基石，能源價格上漲主要是一個政治經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)。由于以補(bǔ)貼為基礎(chǔ)的福利分配制度的維持成本過高，近年來所有進(jìn)口國都開始提高能源價格。同樣，由于財政壓力（除其他外，由于最近國際油價較低），出口國已著手進(jìn)行能源定價改革。本文研究了中東和北非地區(qū)不同政治經(jīng)濟(jì)體政府實施物價上漲的條件。它評估了該區(qū)域六個具體國家（突尼斯、摩洛哥、埃及、約旦、沙特阿拉伯和伊朗），并為每個國家解釋了（1）為什么需要改革，（2）政治聯(lián)盟如何影響改革規(guī)劃和實施，以及（3）社會契約動態(tài)如何影響改革。

This paper analyzes the political economy of energy pricing reforms in the Middle East and North African since the Arab Spring. As low energy prices have historically been a cornerstone of the social contract in most MENA countries, increasing energy prices is predominantly a political economic challenge. As the subsidy-based welfare distribution system has become too costly to maintain, all importing countries have started increasing energy prices in recent years. Similarly, as a result of fiscal stress (among others because of recent low international oil prices), exporting countries have embarked on energy pricing reforms. This paper investigates the conditions under which governments across the MENA region with very different political economies were able to implement price increases. It assesses six specific countries in the region (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Iran) and explains for each country (1) why reform was necessary, (2) how political coalitions affected reform planning and implementation, and (3) how social contract dynamics affected the reforms.

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