2018年4月2日，美國(guó)環(huán)境保護(hù)署（EPA）宣布，2022-2025車(chē)型年的計(jì)劃燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性增長(zhǎng)轎車(chē)和輕型卡車(chē)過(guò)于嚴(yán)格，應(yīng)予以修訂。1因此，EPA與美國(guó)國(guó)家公路運(yùn)輸安全管理局（National Highway Transportation Safety Administration）合作，啟動(dòng)了制定2022-2025新標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的程序（國(guó)家公路交通安全管理局）。 盡管這些機(jī)構(gòu)最終可能會(huì)放寬燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，但不到2021年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的全面倒退，這意味著，為了說(shuō)明的目的，我們?cè)u(píng)估了全面倒退對(duì)汽油消費(fèi)、石油進(jìn)口和碳排放的影響?？紤]到機(jī)構(gòu)2016年的分析表明，全面的回退總體上會(huì)損害社會(huì)，我們討論了2016年分析的哪些變化可能導(dǎo)致機(jī)構(gòu)得出回退有益于社會(huì)的結(jié)論。 為了便于討論這些重要的公共政策問(wèn)題，本文對(duì)環(huán)保署的聲明提出兩點(diǎn)看法： 由于道路車(chē)輛車(chē)隊(duì)的逐步更替，取消2022-2025年更嚴(yán)格的燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)這些年甚至2030年的汽油消耗、溫室氣體排放和石油進(jìn)口影響不大。然而，較低標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的最終影響可能會(huì)更大，特別是如果它們損害了新技術(shù)的進(jìn)步以及美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)收緊標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的政治勢(shì)頭。 自2016年分析以來(lái)，碳排放的社會(huì)成本、燃料價(jià)格、行駛里程和輕型卡車(chē)的市場(chǎng)份額的變化不太可能導(dǎo)致削減標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的收益超過(guò)成本。如果這些機(jī)構(gòu)得出結(jié)論認(rèn)為，削減標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的好處超過(guò)了成本，那么理由很可能是基于其他因素，比如消費(fèi)者愿意為節(jié)油技術(shù)買(mǎi)單，或者這些技術(shù)的成本和有效性。
On April 2, 2018, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that planned fuel economy increases for model year 2022–2025 cars and light trucks are too stringent and should be revised.1 The EPA thus initiated a process to set new standards for 2022–2025, in partnership with the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA). Although the agencies may eventually ease fuel economy standards less than a full rollback of the standards to 2021 levels would imply, for illustrative purposes we assess the implications of a full rollback for gasoline consumption, oil imports, and carbon emissions. Given that the agencies’ 2016 analysis suggests that a full rollback would harm society on balance, we discuss which changes to the 2016 analysis might lead the agencies to conclude that a rollback benefits society. To facilitate discussion of these important public policy issues, this paper makes two points about the EPA’s announcement: Due to the gradual turnover of the on-road vehicle fleet, eliminating the tighter fuel economy standards for 2022–2025 would have small effects on gasoline consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and oil imports during those years and even out to 2030. However, the ultimate impact of the weaker standards could be greater, especially if they hurt the progress of new technologies and the political momentum for tighter standards in the United States and in other countries over the longer term. Changes in the social cost of carbon, fuel prices, miles traveled, and market shares of light trucks since the 2016 analysis are unlikely to cause the benefits of rolling back the standards to exceed the costs. If the agencies conclude that the benefits of rolling back the standards exceed the costs, the reasoning will likely be based on other factors, such as consumer willingness to pay for fuel-saving technologies or the cost and effectiveness of those technologies.
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