美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇在整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大，在這一周期中首次創(chuàng)造了可觀的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)。隨著軟件和設(shè)備支出增長(zhǎng)尤其迅速，消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)信心指數(shù)一致樂(lè)觀。在美國(guó)，通貨緊縮不再是一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。事實(shí)上，4月份核心通脹率同比上升至1.8%，核心個(gè)人消費(fèi)平減指數(shù)上升2%，可能會(huì)在6月份引發(fā)更高的利率。

歐元區(qū)一季度數(shù)據(jù)最終證實(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)正在穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇。歐元區(qū)第一季度整體增長(zhǎng)率為2.4%，法國(guó)表現(xiàn)最佳。德國(guó)消費(fèi)的持續(xù)疲軟是對(duì)歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇可持續(xù)性的主要威脅。日本繼續(xù)受益于中國(guó)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，第一季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可能在4%左右，比2003年第四季度顯著的6.4%有所下降。出口和商業(yè)投資繼續(xù)引領(lǐng)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)2004年的預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)了0.2%，國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)3.4%。美國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)了0.25%至4.7%，而日本的預(yù)測(cè)目前為2.9%，增長(zhǎng)了0.1%。歐元區(qū)的預(yù)測(cè)不變，為1.8%。對(duì)中國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)提高到8.8%，對(duì)俄羅斯的預(yù)測(cè)提高到7%。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2004年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)總體增長(zhǎng)率為4.7%，比上月增長(zhǎng)0.2%。

4月歐佩克參考一攬子價(jià)格為32.35美元/桶，僅次于1990年10月登記的34.32美元/桶的歷史最高月平均價(jià)格。自2004年初以來(lái)，籃子的持續(xù)強(qiáng)勢(shì)，加上去年3月和4月宣布的下跌，大大擴(kuò)大了2004年迄今相對(duì)于2003年的平均水平。今年4月30日至2003年同期，這一籃子原油的平均價(jià)格為31.13美元/桶，而2003年同期為29.02美元/桶。5月初，在原油價(jià)格飆升之后，在5月6日的周末，這一籃子原油的平均價(jià)格又上漲了5%或1.66美元/桶，至34.91美元/桶，隨后一周又上漲了1.25美元/桶，至36.16美元/桶。截至5月17日，受地緣政治、安全擔(dān)憂、美國(guó)汽油形勢(shì)、對(duì)石油產(chǎn)品的高需求和投機(jī)活動(dòng)猖獗等因素影響，該籃子的日均價(jià)格已升至37.72美元/桶，比歷史高點(diǎn)低約1.20美元。

4月份，由于煉油廠供應(yīng)減少，產(chǎn)品需求普遍強(qiáng)勁，大部分平均產(chǎn)品價(jià)格大幅上漲，這主要是由于維修周轉(zhuǎn)所致。因此，全球所有主要煉油中心的煉油經(jīng)濟(jì)都顯著改善。

4月份，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克地區(qū)的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降了305萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到123.6萬(wàn)桶/日。由于復(fù)活節(jié)假期、季節(jié)性需求放緩以及歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量的小幅下降（主要影響中東地區(qū)的長(zhǎng)途現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量，尤其是西行航線），歐佩克現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降，主要原因是缺乏活動(dòng)。從中東到遠(yuǎn)東和西部的長(zhǎng)途貨物VLCC運(yùn)價(jià)連續(xù)第二個(gè)月呈下降趨勢(shì)，分別下降10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至WS91和12個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至WS83。成品油船市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了與原油相似的模式。

2003年世界石油需求估計(jì)數(shù)增加了12萬(wàn)桶/日，主要是由于發(fā)展中國(guó)家和其他歐洲的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)了較大幅度的上升，加上西歐的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)略有上升。中國(guó)是預(yù)測(cè)2004年石油需求增長(zhǎng)的最大貢獻(xiàn)者，隨著更多的實(shí)際消費(fèi)證據(jù)的出現(xiàn)，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)繼續(xù)保持快速增長(zhǎng)。在2004年預(yù)測(cè)的需求增量（目前為180萬(wàn)桶/日）中，有24萬(wàn)桶/日的增長(zhǎng)，其中近190萬(wàn)桶/日是中國(guó)造成的。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2004年世界石油需求總量為8040萬(wàn)桶/日，增長(zhǎng)率為2.29%，創(chuàng)七年來(lái)新高。

根據(jù)第二來(lái)源，歐佩克4月份的原油產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為2805萬(wàn)桶/日，比3月份的修正數(shù)字低26萬(wàn)桶/日。然而，5月份的提名和油輪的變動(dòng)表明，產(chǎn)量要高得多，歐佩克成員國(guó)正在考慮進(jìn)一步增產(chǎn)，作為它們對(duì)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)實(shí)作出反應(yīng)的承諾的一部分。2003年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量估計(jì)為4867萬(wàn)桶/日，比2002年的4776萬(wàn)桶/日高出91萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2004年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量將達(dá)到5001萬(wàn)桶/日，比2003年的估計(jì)數(shù)增加134萬(wàn)桶/日，2002年和2003年的FSU凈出口分別為556萬(wàn)桶/日和646萬(wàn)桶/日，2004年增至736萬(wàn)桶/日。

美國(guó)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)股連續(xù)第二個(gè)月保持上漲趨勢(shì)，以50萬(wàn)桶/日的速度增長(zhǎng)1420萬(wàn)桶，至92710萬(wàn)桶。原油和成品油都對(duì)這一增長(zhǎng)做出了貢獻(xiàn)，分別增長(zhǎng)670萬(wàn)桶和750萬(wàn)桶。在16歐元區(qū)，截至4月底，總庫(kù)存以0.25萬(wàn)桶/日的速度下降750萬(wàn)桶，連續(xù)第三個(gè)月下降至106280萬(wàn)桶。原油和成品油都對(duì)這一增長(zhǎng)做出了貢獻(xiàn)，分別下降350萬(wàn)桶至45760萬(wàn)桶和400萬(wàn)桶至6052萬(wàn)桶。在印度，僅商業(yè)和石油類股3月份連續(xù)第三個(gè)月保持下降趨勢(shì)，以22萬(wàn)桶/日的速度下降670萬(wàn)桶，至163.0萬(wàn)桶。主要產(chǎn)品總量是造成這一下降的主要因素，下降了660萬(wàn)桶至5480萬(wàn)桶，而原油庫(kù)存幾乎保持在10820萬(wàn)桶不變。

雖然2004年第一季度全球庫(kù)存總量略有增加，但余額表明增加了100萬(wàn)桶，使80多萬(wàn)桶/日的庫(kù)存下落不明。這可歸因于發(fā)展中國(guó)家的未報(bào)告庫(kù)存和數(shù)據(jù)的潛在修訂。鑒于目前歐佩克的產(chǎn)量，修正后的世界石油平衡仍明顯高于正常的季節(jié)性石油庫(kù)存，這一觀點(diǎn)也得到了其他既定來(lái)源的認(rèn)同。

The US recovery continues to broaden throughout the economy, producing sizeable gains in employment for the firsttime in this cycle. Indicators of consumer and business sentiment are uniformly optimistic with software and equipmentspending growing particularly rapidly. Disinflation is no longer a risk in the USA. Indeed, the rise in the April coreinflation rate to 1.8% year-on-year and the 2% rise in the core personal consumption deflator may trigger higher interestrates in June. 

First quarter Euro-zone data confirmed at last that a steady economic recovery is under way. Overall Euro-zone growth was2.4% in the first quarter with France showing the best performance. The continued weakness of German consumption is themajor threat to the sustainability of the European recovery. Japan continues to benefit from the strong growth of China.Economic growth for the first quarter was probably in the region of 4%, a reduction from the remarkable 6.4% achieved inthe final quarter of 2003. Exports and business investment continue to lead the Japanese recovery. 

The 2004 forecast for the OECD region has been raised by 0.2% and GDP is expected to grow by 3.4%. The USAforecast has been increased by 0.25% to 4.7% while that of Japan is now 2.9%, a rise of 0.1%. The forecast for the Eurozoneis unchanged at 1.8%. The forecast for China has been increased to 8.8% and the forecast for Russia has been raisedto 7%. The world economy as a whole is forecast to grow at 4.7% in 2004, an increase of 0.2% from last month. 

The $32.35/b April’s OPEC Reference Basket price is second only to the all-time high monthly average of $34.32/bregistered in October 1990. The constant strength of the Basket since the beginning of 2004, combined with thepronounced drop seen in March and April of last year, considerably widened the 2004 year’s year-to-date average withrespect to 2003. The Basket averaged $31.13/b to 30 April of this year versus $29.02/b during the same period in 2003.Early in May, following a surge in crude prices, the Basket added another 5% or $1.66/b to average $34.91/b in the weekended 6 May and rose by another $1.25/b to $36.16/b in the following week. As of 17 May, the Basket’s daily averagehad risen to $37.72/b, or about $1.20 below the all-time high, driven primarily by geopolitics, security concerns, thegasoline situation in the USA, high demand for petroleum products and rampant speculation. 

Most average product prices enjoyed considerable gains in April, induced by prevailing robust product demand amidcurtailed refinery supply, which was largely due to maintenance turnarounds. Consequently, refining economiesimproved significantly in all main global refining centres. 

In April, estimated OPEC area spot fixtures showed a decline of 3.05 mb/d to stand at 12.36 mb/d. OPEC spot charteringretreated mostly on a lack of activity due to the Easter holidays, slower seasonal demand and a slight fall in OPEC crudeoil production that affected mainly Middle Eastern long haul spot fixtures, especially on the westbound route. VLCCfreight rates for long-haul cargoes from the Middle East to the Far East and to the west continued their downward trendfor the second consecutive month, declining by 10 points to WS91 and by 12 points to WS83 respectively. The producttanker market experienced a similar pattern to that of crude. 

The 2003 world oil demand estimate has been raised by 0.12 mb/d mostly due to relatively substantial upward revisionsin the consumption data of Developing Countries and Other Europe complemented by a moderate rise in that of WesternEurope. China is the top contributor to forecast 2004 oil demand growth and has continued to register ever fasterincremental growth as more evidence on actual consumption becomes available. Out of the 0.24 mb/d rise in the forecast2004 demand increment, which now stands at 1.80 mb/d, nearly 0.190 mb/d is attributable to China. Total 2004 world oildemand is now forecast at 80.40 mb/d, registering growth at a seven-year high of 2.29%. 

OPEC crude oil production in April, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 28.05 mb/d, 0.26 mb/d lower than therevised March figure. However, May nominations and tanker movements indicate much higher volumes, and OPECMember Countries are considering further production increases as part of their commitment to respond to marketrealities. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2003 is estimated at 48.67 mb/d, which is 0.91 mb/d above the 47.76 mb/d estimatedfor 2002. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 50.01 mb/d, an increase of 1.34 mb/d over the 2003 estimate.Net FSU exports are estimated at 5.56 mb/d for 2002 and 6.46 mb/d for 2003, rising to 7.36 mb/d in 2004. 

US commercial on-land stocks continued their upward trend for the second consecutive month increasing 14.20 mb at arate of 0.5 mb/d to 927.1 mb. Both crude oil and products contributed to this build, rising 6.7 mb and 7.5 mb respectively.In Eur-16, at the end of April, total stocks fell 7.5 mb at a rate of 0.25 mb/d to 1,062.8 mb for the third successive month.Both crude and products contributed to the draw, decreasing 3.5 mb to 457.6 mb and 4.0 mb to 605.2 mb respectively. InJapan, commercial onland oil stocks continued their downward trend in March for the third consecutive month,decreasing 6.7 mb at a rate of 0.22 mb/d to 163.0 mb. Total major products were the main contributor to this draw,declining by 6.6 mb to 54.8 mb, while crude oil stocks remained almost unchanged at 108.2 mb. 

Although the total world stocks saw a slight increase in 1Q 2004, the balance indicates an increase of 1 mb, which leavesmore than 800,000 b/d unaccounted for. This could be attributed to unreported stocks in developing countries andpotential revisions in data. In light of current OPEC production, the revised world oil balance is still significantly abovethe normal seasonal stock-build, a view that is also shared by other established sources.