第三季度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國和世界經(jīng)濟在颶風(fēng)卡特里納和麗塔的影響前強勁增長。預(yù)計2005年對美國經(jīng)濟增長率的直接影響將僅為0.1%，明年將出現(xiàn)大量重建支出。美國對2005年GDP增長的預(yù)測已經(jīng)提高到3.5%，對2006年的預(yù)測已經(jīng)提高到3.1%。正如我們在之前的報告中所強調(diào)的，金融市場的主要擔(dān)憂已經(jīng)從增長轉(zhuǎn)向通脹。整體通脹和核心通脹上升的前景表明，2006年美國、歐洲和亞洲將采取收緊貨幣政策的舉措。在公布了出色的第二季度數(shù)據(jù)后，日本對2005年經(jīng)濟增長的預(yù)測被修正為2.1%。預(yù)計2006年將進一步穩(wěn)定增長1.8%。對歐元區(qū)的預(yù)測沒有變化，預(yù)計歐元區(qū)2005年和明年分別增長1.1%和1.5%。發(fā)展中國家的增長預(yù)測在2005年和2006年分別修正為5.4%和5.0%。尤其是非洲，看來將從石油出口經(jīng)濟的強勁增長中受益。2005年世界經(jīng)濟的預(yù)期增長率已增至4.2%，明年將增長4.0%。2006年的謹慎展望反映了商業(yè)信心、貿(mào)易和制造業(yè)指標(biāo)的改善所產(chǎn)生的積極影響與能源價格高企對實際收入的持續(xù)影響之間的平衡，特別是在亞洲燃料補貼減少的國家。這在很大程度上還將取決于美國經(jīng)濟在利率上升的情況下的彈性，因為美國需求下降也可能會減緩對中國和其他亞洲經(jīng)濟體的出口和投資。由于信號不一，歐佩克9月份的參考籃子經(jīng)歷了一個波動的月份。颶風(fēng)卡特麗娜重新喚起人們對去年颶風(fēng)伊凡對墨西哥灣石油業(yè)務(wù)的影響的擔(dān)憂。然而，國際能源機構(gòu)對戰(zhàn)略原油和成品油庫存的積極反應(yīng)，以及歐佩克迅速提供石油供應(yīng)，幫助提振了市場?；@子平均價格本月僅上漲6美元，至57.82美元/桶。籃子價格在10月份繼續(xù)下滑，上半月的平均價格為55.55美元/桶，較上一個月平均價格下跌2.33美元或4%，10月14日為54.49美元/桶。由于卡特里娜颶風(fēng)和里塔颶風(fēng)，美國煉油廠急劇停工，加上美國墨西哥灣沿岸天然氣產(chǎn)量下降，以及對冬季產(chǎn)品短缺的擔(dān)憂，提振了產(chǎn)品價格，并導(dǎo)致不同基準(zhǔn)原油的煉油利潤率在9月份大幅飆升。由于近期需求放緩（尤其是美國）和技術(shù)性拋售，成品油市場和原油市場失去了部分力量，但成品油市場仍基本處于空頭狀態(tài)，未來幾周價格可能反彈。由于美國約180萬桶/日的煉油廠利用率仍處于下線狀態(tài)，而且由于法國最近正在進行罷工，目前成品油市場的空頭跌幅進一步加深，為成品油和原油價格提供了進一步支撐。歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨租船總量激增近230萬桶/日，平均為148萬桶/日，增幅為18%。中東國家是增長的主要貢獻者，為190萬桶/日，增幅為84%，主要來自西行固定設(shè)施，較上月增加了100萬桶/日，增幅為90%。來自歐佩克地區(qū)的航行量下降了0.72百萬桶/日至2470百萬桶/日，但仍比去年同期高出170百萬桶/日。油輪市場從夏季的沉寂中恢復(fù)過來，原油現(xiàn)貨運價在冬季前有所改善，而產(chǎn)品運價則大幅上漲，特別是在加勒比海和大西洋盆地，由于在卡特里娜和麗塔颶風(fēng)之后預(yù)訂量激增，他們達到了自2000年底以來的最高水平。盡管持續(xù)高企的油價已開始侵蝕需求，但從積極的一面看，目前的經(jīng)濟前景仍保持健康，為4.2%。根據(jù)最近四周的平均值，美國汽油消費量在最新的環(huán)境影響評估數(shù)據(jù)中大幅下降2.6%，這證明了一些市場觀點的正確性，也應(yīng)該看看今年前八個月汽油需求的年度趨勢，即9.15百萬桶/日，而去年同期為9.11百萬桶/日。此外，任何僅僅基于過去四周平均值的預(yù)測都可能是誤導(dǎo)性的，特別是如果這一時期包括卡特里娜颶風(fēng)之后的事件。本年度世界石油需求增長已下調(diào)20萬桶/日，目前估計為120萬桶/日，同比增長1.4%，年均增長8330萬桶/日。2006年，全球石油需求增長預(yù)計接近150萬桶/日，年均增長8470萬桶/日，同比增長1.8%。2005年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計將增加比上一年減少了49萬桶/日，比上個月的數(shù)字減少了13萬桶/日。包括歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油，今年非歐佩克的產(chǎn)量將比2004年增加70萬桶/日。按季度計算，第三和第四季度非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量分別減少了12.7萬桶/日和33.1萬桶/日。對美國墨西哥灣和英國生產(chǎn)的負面修訂占大部分的調(diào)整，部分抵消了在澳大利亞和一些發(fā)展中國家的上調(diào)。2006年，在上個月的報告向上修正了90000桶/日之后，非運營線圈的供應(yīng)預(yù)計將比今年增加127萬桶/日。包括歐佩克液化天然氣和非常規(guī)石油，非歐佩克的石油供應(yīng)可能比2005年增加160萬桶/日。9月歐佩克石油產(chǎn)量估計為3034萬桶/日。9月2日至30日，美國商業(yè)石油庫存（原油和石油產(chǎn)品總量，不包括SPR）下降470萬桶或0.17萬桶/日，至100490萬桶。這一水平比去年高出3.4%，比五年平均水平高出2%。9月份，16歐元（歐盟加挪威）的石油庫存總量連續(xù)第三個月出現(xiàn)增長，增加290萬歐元或0.10萬歐元/日，達到113600萬歐元。這一水平比一年前高出37.1兆字節(jié)或3.4%。日本8月份的石油庫存總量進一步溫和增長，增加420萬桶，即14萬桶/日，達到19090萬桶，這是2004年11月以來的最高水平。2005年的供需平衡有所下調(diào)，以反映較低的需求和較低的供應(yīng)預(yù)期。目前預(yù)測，2005年歐佩克原油的需求為2870萬桶/日，較2004年增加50萬桶/日，但較之前預(yù)測的低20萬桶/日。據(jù)估計，2005年第四季度的原油需求量為3000萬桶/日，比以前減少了300000桶/日，同時也降低了目前歐佩克的原油產(chǎn)量（3030萬桶/日）。就歐佩克產(chǎn)能而言，考慮到供需平衡、由此產(chǎn)生的歐佩克原油需求水平和預(yù)計產(chǎn)能，歐佩克的閑置產(chǎn)能目前估計在2005年第四季度平均約為8.5%，而2004年同期為4.9%。2006年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計平均為2850萬桶/日，較上月的報告下調(diào)約40萬桶/日。季度分布顯示，目前預(yù)計歐佩克原油第一季度需求為2970萬桶/日，第二季度為2770萬桶/日，第三季度為2800萬桶/日，第四季度為2880萬桶/日。

Third-quarter data suggests that the US and the world economy were growing strongly before the impact of hurricanesKatrina and Rita. The direct effect on the growth rate of the US economy in 2005 is now expected to be a reduction of only0.1% and next year will see substantial spending on rebuilding. The US GDP growth forecast for 2005 has been raised to3.5% and the forecast for 2006 to 3.1%. The major concern of financial markets has shifted from growth to inflation, as wehave highlighted in previous reports. The prospect of higher headline and core inflation suggests that 2006 will see moves totighten monetary policies in the USA, Europe and Asia. Following excellent second-quarter data, the Japanese growth forecast for 2005 has been revised up to 2.1%. Further steadygrowth of 1.8% is expected in 2006. There has been no change in the forecast for the Euro-zone which is expected to growby 1.1% in 2005 and by 1.5% next year. Growth forecasts for the Developing Countries have been revised up to 5.4% in2005 and 5.0% in 2006. Africa in particular looks set to benefit from the strong growth of oil exporting economies. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 has been increased to 4.2%, followed by growth of 4.0% next year.The cautious outlook for 2006 reflects a balance between the positive influence of improving business confidence, trade andmanufacturing indicators and the ongoing impact of high energy prices on real incomes, especially in Asian countries wherefuel subsidies have been reduced. Much will also depend on the resilience of the US economy in the face of rising interestrates since lower US demand might also slow exports and investment in China and other Asian economies. The OPEC Reference Basket in September experienced a volatile month due to mixed signals. Hurricane Katrina revivedfears of a replay of last year’s impact of Hurricane Ivan on oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the IEA’semergency response of strategic crude and product stocks together with OPEC’s prompt provision of oil supplies helped toease the market. The Basket average rose only 6 for the month to $57.82/b. The Basket continued to slip in October withthe average for the first half of the month at $55.55/b, representing a loss of $2.33 or 4% from the previous monthly average,and stood at $54.49/b on 14 October. Sharp refinery outages in the USA as a result of the hurricanes Katrina and Rita, along with the drop in natural gas outputfrom the US Gulf Coast and fears of product shortfalls in the winter season, have lifted product prices and caused refinerymargins of different benchmark crudes to surge sharply in September. Due to the recent slowdown in demand, particularly inthe USA, and technical sell-offs, the product markets along with the crude oil market have lost part of their strength, butproduct markets are still fundamentally short and prices could rebound in the next few weeks. As about 1.8 mb/d of USrefinery utilization is still off-line, and because of the recent ongoing strike in France, the current short-fall in the productmarkets deepens, providing further support for product and crude oil prices. Total OPEC spot chartering surged by almost 2.3 mb/d or 18% to average 14.8 mb/d. Middle Eastern countries were themain contributors to the growth with 1.9 mb/d or 84%, coming essentially from the westbound fixtures, which increased by1 mb/d or 90% compared to the previous month. Sailings from the OPEC area fell by 0.72 mb/d to 24.7 mb/d, but remained1.7 mb/d higher than a year earlier. The tanker market recovered from its summer lull with spot freight rates for crude oilshowing some improvements ahead of winter, while freight rates for products increased significantly, especially in theCaribbean and the Atlantic Basin, where they hit their highest levels since late 2000 as a result of a spike in bookingsfollowing hurricanes Katrina and Rita. While persistently high oil prices have begun to erode demand, on the positive side, the economic outlook for the presentyear remains healthy at 4.2%. Some of the market views vindicated by the substantial 2.6% drop in US gasolineconsumption in the latest EIA figures, based on the last four-week average, should also take a look at the yearly trend forgasoline demand for the first eight months of this year, which was 9.15 mb/d compared to 9.11 mb/d in the same period lastyear. Moreover, any prediction based solely on the last four-week average might be misleading, especially if the periodencompasses the post-Katrina episode. World oil demand growth for the present year has been revised down by 0.2 mb/dand is now estimated at 1.2 mb/d, representing 1.4 % y-o-y growth, for a yearly average of 83.3 mb/d. As for 2006, globaloil demand growth is projected to stand close to 1.5 mb/d or 1.8 % for a yearly average of 84.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to increase 0.49 mb/d over the previous year, following a downward revision of113,000 b/d to last month’s figures. Including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils, non-OPEC output this year shouldincrease 0.7 mb/d over 2004. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply has been revised down in the third and fourth quarterby 127,000 b/d and 331,000 b/d respectively. Negative revisions to US Gulf of Mexico and UK production account for thebulk of the adjustments partly offset by upward revisions in Australia and in several Developing Countries. In 2006, nonOPECoil supply is expected to increase 1.27 mb/d over the current year, following an upward revision of 90,000 b/d fromlast month’s report. Including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils, non-OPEC supply is likely to increase 1.6 mb/dfrom 2005. September OPEC output is estimated at 30.34 mb/d. US commercial oil inventories (total crude and petroleum products excluding SPR) during 2-30 September showed a drawof 4.7 mb or 0.17 mb/d to 1,004.90 mb. This level was 3.4% higher than last year’s figure and 2% above the five-yearaverage. Total oil inventories in Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) in September continued to show builds for the third consecutive month, increasing by 2.9 mb or 0.10 mb/d to stand at 1,136.0 mb. This level is 37.1 mb or 3.4% higher than that registereda year ago. Total oil inventories in Japan showed a further moderate build in August, rising by 4.2 mb or 0.14 mb/d to standat 190.9 mb, a level not seen since November 2004. The supply/demand balance for 2005 has been revised down to reflect lower demand and lower supply expectations.Demand for OPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is now forecast at 28.7 mb/d, an increase of 0.5 mb/d from 2004 but 200,000 b/dlower than projected earlier. The crude required for the fourth quarter of 2005 is now estimated to be 30 mb/d, whichis 300,000 b/d lower than before as well as the current OPEC crude production (30.3 mb/d). In terms of OPECcapacity, taking into account the supply/demand balance, the resulting required OPEC crude production levels andprojected production capacity, OPEC’s spare capacity is now estimated to average around 8.5% in the fourth quarter of2005, compared to 4.9% in the same period of 2004. For 2006, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average28.5 mb/d, a downward revision of around 400,000 b/d versus last month’s report. The quarterly distribution shows thatdemand for OPEC crude is now expected to be 29.7 mb/d in the first quarter, 27.7 mb/d in the second, 28 mb/d in the thirdand 28.8 mb/d in the fourth.