原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)              

去年12月，歐佩克參考籃子（ORB）平均為62.06美元/桶，為2015年6月以來的最高水平。按年度計(jì)算，ORB平均為52.43美元/桶，較上年增長29%或11.67美元/桶。石油價(jià)格得到了廣泛的支持，包括《合作宣言》帶來的產(chǎn)量調(diào)整、強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)和需求增長以及金融市場(chǎng)的人氣。ICE布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格上漲1.23美元，至64.09美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期貨價(jià)格上漲1.28美元，至57.95美元/桶。12月份，尼斯布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格與NYMEX WTI原油期貨價(jià)格的價(jià)差略有收窄，至6.15美元/桶。布倫特、WTI和Dubaimarket結(jié)構(gòu)保持了落后。歐洲和亞洲的糖分/酸分差距擴(kuò)大，美國墨西哥灣沿岸的糖分/酸分差距縮小。              

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)             

 2017年和2018年的全球GDP增長預(yù)測(cè)仍為3.7%。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率在2017年增長2.3%后，于2018年上調(diào)至2.6%。2017年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率升至2.4%，2018年為2.1%。同樣，日本在2017年和2018年的增長率都有所提高，目前分別為1.8%和1.6%。在2017年增長6.5%之后，印度的勢(shì)頭有所減弱，導(dǎo)致2018年略微下調(diào)至7.2%。預(yù)計(jì)2017年和2018年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將分別保持在6.8%和6.5%。              

世界石油需求              

2017年全球石油需求增長上調(diào)40tb/d，至157mb/d，2017年平均9699mb/d。此次上調(diào)主要是由于OECDEurope和中國的數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期。與上個(gè)月的報(bào)告相比，經(jīng)過小幅上調(diào)后，預(yù)計(jì)2018年石油需求增長約為153萬桶/日，目前全球石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到9851萬桶/日。非經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體將為2018年的需求增長貢獻(xiàn)124萬桶/日。              

世界石油供應(yīng)              

2017年非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)增長率略有下調(diào)，目前為7700萬桶/日。調(diào)整主要是由于17年第4季度實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)的修訂。2018年，非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)量增長了16萬桶/日，目前為115萬桶/日，主要是由于美國和加拿大的增長預(yù)期較高。預(yù)計(jì)2018年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量將增長18萬桶/日，而上一年的增長率為17萬桶/日。據(jù)二級(jí)消息來源稱，歐佩克12月份的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加42tb/d，達(dá)到平均3242mb/d。              

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)             

 隨著煉油利潤率進(jìn)一步收窄，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)走低。在美國市場(chǎng)，虧損可能歸因于油價(jià)上中游走軟，抵消了冬季風(fēng)暴對(duì)國內(nèi)需求的影響，導(dǎo)致柴油廠的蓋辛產(chǎn)量下降。在歐洲，由于原油價(jià)格上漲和供應(yīng)方面的壓力，煉油廠利潤率創(chuàng)下16個(gè)月來的新低，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)暴跌，整個(gè)油價(jià)下跌。在亞洲，由于國內(nèi)需求強(qiáng)勁，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)保持健康水平。              

油輪市場(chǎng)              

臟油輪的即期運(yùn)價(jià)在12月份總體上沒有顯示出明顯的上漲。污油罐車的平均運(yùn)費(fèi)與上個(gè)月相比幾乎穩(wěn)定。超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)在本月下降，盈利下降，原因是船舶供應(yīng)量高。同時(shí)，12月份的噸位需求仍然有限，運(yùn)輸延誤在高噸位供應(yīng)的支持下有所下降。蘇伊士以西的清潔油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)上漲，主要是因?yàn)樵摰貐^(qū)的船舶供應(yīng)趨緊。              

股票變動(dòng)              

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）11月份商業(yè)石油庫存總量下降至293300萬桶。在這個(gè)水平上，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫存比最近五年的平均水平高出約133MB。原油和成品油庫存分別比季節(jié)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)高出約114MB和190MB。從遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，11月份經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為61.8天，比最近五年的平均水平高出約1.9天。              

供需平衡              

據(jù)估計(jì)，2017年歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量為3290萬桶/日，比2016年高出60萬桶/日。2018年，歐佩克原油預(yù)計(jì)為3310萬桶/日，比上年增加約20萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements

 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged $62.06/b in December, its highest since June 2015. On theyearly basis, the ORB averaged $52.43/b, a gain of 29% or $11.67/b over the previous year. Oil pricesreceived wide-ranging support from production adjustment resulting from the Declaration of Cooperation(DoC), strong economic and demand growth, as well as sentiment in the financial markets. ICE Brentincreased $1.23 at $64.09/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.28 at $57.95/b. The spread betweenICE Brent and NYMEX WTI spread narrowed slightly to $6.15/b in December. The Brent, WTI and Dubaimarket structure held backwardation. Sweet/sour differentials widened in Europe and Asia, and narrowed inthe US Gulf Coast.

 World Economy 

The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.7% for both 2017 and 2018. US growth was revised up in 2018to 2.6%, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth in the Euro-zone was lifted to 2.4% in 2017, followed by 2.1%in 2018. Similarly, Japan’s growth was lifted in both 2017 and 2018 to now stand at 1.8% and 1.6%,respectively. India’s somewhat softening momentum led to a slight downward revision to 7.2% in 2018, aftergrowth of 6.5% in 2017. China’s growth is expected to remain at 6.8% in 2017 and 6.5% in 2018. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand growth in 2017 was revised upward by 40 tb/d to stand at 1.57 mb/d, averaging96.99 mb/d for 2017. The upward revision was broadly a result of better-than-expected data for OECDEurope and China. For 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.53 mb/d, following a marginalupward adjustment compared to last month’s report, with global oil demand now expected to reach98.51 mb/d. Non-OECD economies will contribute 1.24 mb/d of the demand growth expected in 2018. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2017 has been revised marginally lower to now stand at 0.77 mb/d. Theadjustments were mostly due to revisions in the actual data for 4Q17. For 2018, non-OPEC supply growthwas revised up by 0.16 mb/d to now stand at 1.15 mb/d, driven by mostly higher growth expectations for theUS and Canada. OPEC NGLs are also expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, compared to 0.17 mb/dgrowth in the previous year. OPEC production in December, according to secondary sources, is expected toincrease by 42 tb/d to average 32.42 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin continued to lose ground as refining margins narrowed further. In theUS market, losses could be attributed to a weakening in the top and middle of the barrels, which offset gainsin the diesel complex, driven by the impact of winter storms on domestic demand. In Europe, product marketplummeted with losses seen across the barrel as refinery margins hit a 16-month low due to rising crudeprices and supply-side pressure. In Asia, product markets remained at healthy levels amid firm domesticdemand. 

Tanker Market

 Dirty tanker spot freight rates in general did not show considerable gains in December. Average dirty tankerspot freight rates was almost stable from the previous month. VLCC freight rates declined during the monthas earnings dropped on the back of high vessels availability. Meanwhile, tonnage demand remained limitedin December and transit delays saw a decline, supported by high tonnage availability. Clean tanker spotfreight rates strengthened West of Suez as a result of a tightening in vessel supply, mainly in theMediterranean. 

Stock Movements

 Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in November to stand at 2,933 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are about 133 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks indicate a surplus ofaround 114 mb and 19 mb above their seasonal norms, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stand at 61.8 days in November, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-yearaverage.

 Balance of Supply and Demand 

OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.6 mb/d higher than 2016. In 2018, OPEC crude isprojected at 33.1 mb/d, about 0.2 mb/d higher than in the previous year.