原油價格變動10月份，歐佩克參考價格籃子上漲19美元，至平均45.02美元/桶，這是歐佩克在這一水平上連續(xù)第三個月上漲。原油期貨以更快的速度上漲，ICE布倫特原油期貨價格上漲75至49.29美元/桶，Nymex WTI原油期貨價格上漲82至46.29美元/桶。隨著空頭頭寸增加，投機(jī)者網(wǎng)長度下降。布倫特WTI價差在10月份收窄至接近3美元/桶的平均水平。2015年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長仍保持在3.1%的適度水平，主要原因是新興和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的持續(xù)放緩，以及美國第三季度的低增長，預(yù)計2016年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將提高至3.4%。美國的增長率在2015年和2016年分別修正為2.4%和2.5%，而經(jīng)合組織的總增長率在2015年和2016年分別保持在2.0%和2.1%。中國和印度的數(shù)據(jù)保持不變，分別為6.8%和6.4%，7.4%和7.6%。2015年世界石油需求預(yù)計將增長150萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均9286萬桶/日，與上一份報告持平。2016年，世界石油需求增長達(dá)到125萬桶/日，與上個月的評估一致，達(dá)到平均9414萬桶/日。2015年，世界石油供應(yīng)國歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計為5724萬桶/日，比上個月的預(yù)測增加72萬桶/日，沒有變化。2016年非歐佩克原油供應(yīng)量的預(yù)測保持不變，顯示出下降了13萬桶/日，平均為5711萬桶/日。預(yù)計歐佩克2016年的天然氣產(chǎn)量將增加17萬桶/日，平均為618萬桶/日。10月份，歐佩克的二次資源產(chǎn)量下降了256噸/日，平均為3138萬桶/日10月份是世界范圍內(nèi)產(chǎn)能超過800萬桶/天的維護(hù)季節(jié)，全球煉油廠利潤率下降，原因是庫存高企，預(yù)計冬季將溫和。受供過于求的壓力，美國汽油需求健康，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場繼續(xù)疲軟。由于汽油和汽油裂損利差的收窄超過了石腦油和燃油的積極表現(xiàn)，亞洲利潤率失去了一些動力。油輪市場由于強(qiáng)勁的噸位需求和多個港口出現(xiàn)的延誤，臟油輪市場的人氣普遍好轉(zhuǎn)。平均來說，現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價比上個月上漲了19%。由于清潔油輪需求有限，蘇伊士東部和西部的清潔油輪運(yùn)價均下降。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的出海量和固定裝置數(shù)量均高于上個月，除歐洲港口外，所有報告地區(qū)的出海量均有所下降。9月份，商業(yè)石油庫存幾乎保持不變，達(dá)到294200萬桶。在這一水平上，庫存比最近五年的平均水平高出約210MB，其中原油和產(chǎn)品分別顯示出約170MB和4000B的盈余。從遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，9月份經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)庫存為63.0天，較5年平均水平高出約4.5天，2015年歐佩克原油供需平衡仍為2960萬桶/日，較上年增加60萬桶/日。2016年，預(yù)計歐佩克原油需求為3080萬桶/日，比本年增加約120萬桶/日，與上一份報告持平。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose 19 to average $45.02/b in October, the third month ina row around this level. Crude oil futures increased at a faster pace with ICE Brentincreasing 75 to $49.29/b and Nymex WTI gaining 82 to stand at $46.29/b. Speculatornet length declined as short positions increased. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed toaverage close to $3/b in October.World EconomyWorld economic growth remains modest at 3.1% in 2015, mainly due to a continuedslowdown in emerging and developing economies, as well as low US growth in the thirdquarter, and global economic growth is expected to improve to 3.4% in 2016. US growthhas been revised to 2.4% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016, while total OECD growth remains at2.0% for 2015 and 2.1% for 2016. Figures for China and India remain unchanged at 6.8%and 6.4%, and 7.4% and 7.6%, respectively.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand is expected to grow by 1.50 mb/d in 2015 to average 92.86 mb/d,unchanged from the previous report. In 2016, world oil demand growth is seen reaching1.25 mb/d, in line with the previous month’s assessment, to average 94.14 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is estimated to average 57.24 mb/d in 2015, an increase of0.72 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s estimation. The forecast for 2016 nonOPECoil supply remained unchanged, showing a contraction of 0.13 mb/d to average57.11 mb/d. OPEC NGLs in 2016 are forecast to increase by 0.17 mb/d to average6.18 mb/d. In October, OPEC production according to secondary sources dropped by256 tb/d to average 31.38 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsDespite the peak maintenance season seen in October with more than 8 mb/d of capacityoffline worldwide, refinery margins fell across the globe due to high inventories andexpectations of a mild winter. Product markets in the Atlantic Basin continued to weakeneven with healthy US gasoline demand, pressured by oversupply. Asian margins lost somemomentum amid a narrowing of gasoline and gasoil crack spreads which outweighed thepositive performance of naphtha and fuel oil.Tanker MarketA general improved sentiment was seen in the dirty tanker market, on the back of strongtonnage demand and delays seen in several ports. On average, spot freight rates rose by19% over the previous month. Clean tanker freight rates declined both East and West ofSuez as clean tanker demand was limited. OPEC sailings and fixtures were higher thanthe month before, while sailings declined in all reported regions, except in European ports.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks remained almost unchanged in September to stand at2,942 mb. At this level, inventories were around 210 mb higher than the latest five-yearaverage, with crude and products indicating surpluses of around 170 mb and 40 mb,respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at63.0 days in September, around 4.5 days above the five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandEstimated demand for OPEC crude in 2015 remains at 29.6 mb/d, an increase of 0.6 mb/dover the previous year. In 2016, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 30.8 mb/d, around1.2 mb/d higher than in the current year and unchanged from the previous report.