今年2月，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子平均為90.64美元/桶，較上月上漲2.29美元或2.59%。美元走軟推高油價(jià)，鼓勵(lì)資金繼續(xù)流入紙面石油市場(chǎng)，投資者尋求對(duì)沖通脹和匯率波動(dòng)。地緣政治的復(fù)蘇也給市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)了壓力，盡管美國(guó)原油和汽油庫(kù)存的增加限制了這一上升趨勢(shì)。在美元持續(xù)貶值和北美冬季寒流來(lái)襲的背景下，3月第一周，該籃子價(jià)格飆升至100美元/桶上方的峰值。3月13日，歐佩克參考一攬子價(jià)格達(dá)到102.39美元/桶。

據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2008年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為4.6%，與上月持平，盡管一些地區(qū)略有下調(diào)。在美國(guó)，就業(yè)報(bào)告看跌、2月份零售額下降以及3月初消費(fèi)者信心下降，加劇了人們對(duì)上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂。目前，全球一些最大金融機(jī)構(gòu)報(bào)告的抵押貸款相關(guān)資產(chǎn)減記和損失接近1900億美元。最近的調(diào)查顯示，即使在美國(guó)以外，市場(chǎng)情緒似乎也在惡化。另外，中國(guó)通脹有所回升，2月份居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格以8.7%的11年高位增長(zhǎng)，這提高了人們對(duì)人民幣加快升值的預(yù)期，認(rèn)為人民幣升值是抑制通脹和減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的手段。2008年，中國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)值保持在9.9%不變。美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率已下調(diào)0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至1.3%，而歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率仍保持在1.8%不變，恢復(fù)力的跡象主要來(lái)自歐元區(qū)最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體德國(guó)。日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率也保持在1.2%不變。

天氣再次成為今年冬季經(jīng)合組織石油需求的主要因素；暖冬不僅減少了冬季產(chǎn)品的消耗，還引發(fā)發(fā)電廠轉(zhuǎn)向更便宜的天然氣。預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織第一季度石油消費(fèi)將低于此前的預(yù)測(cè)。然而，非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的石油需求強(qiáng)于預(yù)期，在一定程度上將抵消全球石油需求下調(diào)的影響。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2008年世界石油需求將增長(zhǎng)120萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均8700萬(wàn)桶/日，與上月的預(yù)測(cè)一致。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和經(jīng)合組織（OECD）部分地區(qū)的溫暖天氣削弱了對(duì)冬季產(chǎn)品的需求。經(jīng)合組織第四季度的需求增長(zhǎng)被修正為下降20萬(wàn)桶/日，這被拉丁美洲和非洲的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)所抵消。2007年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率估計(jì)保持在120萬(wàn)桶/日或1.4%不變。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2007年非歐佩克國(guó)家的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)為60萬(wàn)桶/日，與上月的評(píng)估基本持平。加拿大、乍得和俄羅斯的小幅下行調(diào)整幾乎被美國(guó)、英國(guó)和蘇丹的上行調(diào)整所抵消。2008，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將平均0.9 Mb/d，代表加拿大、墨西哥、挪威、英國(guó)、巴西、乍得和俄羅斯的修正0.2 Mb/d，這部分抵消了蘇丹、西歐和美國(guó)向上調(diào)整的影響。二月，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為32.1 Mb/d，比上個(gè)月增加了82500桶/日。伊拉克的生產(chǎn)取得了重大進(jìn)展。

在大西洋盆地最近的寒流以及由于季節(jié)性維護(hù)計(jì)劃導(dǎo)致煉油廠減少之后，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)情緒略有改善。未來(lái)幾個(gè)月，中間餾分油需求放緩、全球（尤其是美國(guó)）汽油庫(kù)存增加以及原油價(jià)格居高不下，可能會(huì)限制煉油廠季節(jié)性扭虧為盈對(duì)煉油利潤(rùn)率的影響。然而，煉油廠停產(chǎn)的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能會(huì)改變產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀，并支持產(chǎn)品和原油價(jià)格。

2月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量平均增長(zhǎng)了4%，達(dá)到1490萬(wàn)桶/日，而東部地區(qū)的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量有所增加，而非歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量平均下降了9%，達(dá)到700萬(wàn)桶/日。2月份，歐佩克的航運(yùn)量基本穩(wěn)定，僅下降了90，2000桶/日，較上月上升至2330萬(wàn)桶/日。2月份，所有航線的超大型油輪原油運(yùn)價(jià)均下降，平均下降17%，原因是活動(dòng)減少和貨源充足。受熊市影響，蘇伊士型油輪2月份的運(yùn)價(jià)有所下降。產(chǎn)品現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)也有所下降，原因是活動(dòng)有限，對(duì)美國(guó)的汽油套利已結(jié)束，煉油廠的運(yùn)行和利潤(rùn)率下降。

初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，受冬季需求支撐，原油和產(chǎn)品凈進(jìn)口增加，經(jīng)合組織1月份石油凈進(jìn)口總額較上月增加70萬(wàn)桶/日。美國(guó)原油進(jìn)口下降40萬(wàn)桶/日，平均約980萬(wàn)桶/日，而美國(guó)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口下降95000桶/日，原因是煉油廠減少。2月份，日本石油凈進(jìn)口量下降了15.8萬(wàn)桶/日，原因是原油進(jìn)口量下降，預(yù)計(jì)維護(hù)季節(jié)將到來(lái)，同時(shí)利潤(rùn)率也將走低。1月份，中國(guó)原油進(jìn)口量增長(zhǎng)至平均330萬(wàn)桶/噸，而成品油進(jìn)口量增長(zhǎng)了22%。由于原油和產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口下降，印度1月份石油凈進(jìn)口下降17%，同比增長(zhǎng)5%。

美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存在2月份下降了約400萬(wàn)桶，但仍保持在一年前的水平，與五年平均水平相比，過(guò)剩了240萬(wàn)桶。這一下降是由產(chǎn)品推動(dòng)的，盡管下降幅度仍高于5年平均水平，但汽油庫(kù)存量在本月底達(dá)到了234MB的14年高點(diǎn)，并在3月初進(jìn)一步增加。原油庫(kù)存繼續(xù)上漲，高于5年平均水平。在歐盟15國(guó)和挪威，石油庫(kù)存總量抵消了上個(gè)月的增長(zhǎng)，但原油和成品油均與5年平均水平持平，日本1月份的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存保持穩(wěn)定，而5年平均水平的赤字縮小到僅300萬(wàn)桶，而初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2月份庫(kù)存急劇下降。

2007年歐佩克原油需求平均3190萬(wàn)桶/日，比上年增加30萬(wàn)桶/日；2008年歐佩克原油需求平均3170萬(wàn)桶/日，下降20萬(wàn)桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $90.64/b in February, representing a gain of $2.29 or 2.59% over the previous month.Prices were pushed higher by US dollar weakness, which encouraged the continued inflow of funds into the paper-oil marketas investors sought to hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. Revived geopolitical developments also pressured themarket, although the upward trend was capped by builds in US crude oil and gasoline stocks. The Basket surged into the firstweek of March peaking above the $100/b level amid continued dollar depreciation and a late winter cold snap in NorthAmerica. The OPEC Reference Basket price reached $102.39/b on 13 March. 

World economic growth is forecast at 4.6% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month despite slight downwardrevisions in some regions. In the US, fears of a recession in the first half of the year have been fanned by a bearishemployment report and a drop in retail sales in February as well as falling consumer confidence in early March.Mortgage-related asset write downs and losses reported by some of the world’s biggest financial institutions nowapproach $190 bn. Recent surveys indicate that sentiment appears to be worsening, even outside the US. Separately,inflation picked up in China, with consumer prices increasing at an eleven-year high rate of 8.7% in February, raisingexpectations of a faster revaluation of the yuan as a means of curbing inflation and slowing economic growth. Theforecast for China remains unchanged at 9.9% for 2008. Growth in the US has been revised down 0.3 pp to 1.3% whilethe Euro-zone remains unchanged at 1.8% with signs of resilience mainly coming from the Euro-zone’s largesteconomy, Germany. Japanese growth is also unchanged at 1.2%. 

The weather is once again the main factor in OECD oil demand this winter; the warm winter not only reduced winterproduct consumption, but also triggered power plants to switch to cheaper natural gas. First-quarter OECD oilconsumption is expected to be below earlier forecasts. However, the stronger-than-expected oil demand in non-OECDregions will to some degree offset the downward revision world-wide. World oil demand in 2008 is forecast to grow by1.2 mb/d to average 87.0 mb/d, in line with last month’s estimate. The slowing world economy and warm weather insome parts of the OECD regions dented the demand for winter products. Fourth-quarter OECD demand growth wasrevised down by 0.2 mb/d which was offset by strong growth in Latin America and Africa. The world oil demandgrowth estimate for 2007 remains unchanged at 1.2 mb/d or 1.4%.

  Non-OPEC supply growth in 2007 is estimated at 0.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. Minordownward adjustments to Canada, Chad and Russia were almost totally offset by upward adjustments in the US, UK andSudan. For 2008, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to average 0.9 mb/d representing a downward revision of 0.2 mb/ddue to revisions to Canada, Mexico, Norway, UK, Brazil, Chad and Russia, which were partially offset by upward adjustmentsto Sudan, Other Western Europe and the USA. In February, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.1 mb/d, an increaseof 82,500 b/d over the previous month. Production in Iraq witnessed significant gains.

  The product market sentiment improved slightly following a recent cold snap in the Atlantic Basin and lower refineryruns due to the seasonal maintenance schedule. Over the coming months, a combination of slowing demand for middledistillates, gasoline stock builds across the globe especially in the US, and high crude oil prices may limit the impact ofseasonal refinery turnarounds on refining margins. However, the potential risk of refinery outages may change thecurrent circumstances of the product market and support both product and crude prices. 

OPEC spot fixtures rose by 4% in February to average 14.9 mb/d, supported by increased fixtures to the East, while nonOPECspot fixtures decreased by 9% to average 7.0 mb/d. OPEC sailings were broadly steady in February, dropping only90,000 b/d from the previous month to stand at 23.3 mb/d. VLCC crude oil freight rates declined on all routes in February,dropping 17% on average on lower activities and ample availability. Suezmax rates decreased in February on the back ofthe bearish market. Product spot freight rates also declined due to limited activities and closed gasoline arbitrage to the USas well as lower refinery runs and margins. 

Preliminary data show that OECD total net oil imports increased 0.7 mb/d in January from the previous month on theback of higher net crude oil and product imports, supported by winter demand. US crude imports fell 400,000 b/d inFebruary to average around 9.8 mb/d while US product imports decreased by 95,000 b/d on the back of lower refineryruns. In February, Japan’s net oil imports declined 158,000 b/d, driven by lower crude imports in anticipation of therefinery maintenance season as well as weak margins. China’s crude oil imports rose in January to average 3.3 mb/dwhile product imports rose 22%. India’s net oil imports dropped 17% in January due to falls in crude oil and productimports, indicating y-o-y growth of 5%. 

US commercial oil stocks fell around 4 mb in February but remained at the same level as a year ago to display an overhang of24 mb with the five-year average. The drop was driven by products, which despite the decline remained above the five-yearaverage supported by gasoline stock builds which reached a 14-year high of 234 mb at the end of the month and increasedfurther in early March. Crude oil stocks continued to rise to move above the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oilinventories offset the gain of the previous month but both crude oil and products were in line with the five-year average.However, Japan’s commercial oil stocks remained stable in January while the deficit with the five-year average narrowed tojust 3 mb whereas preliminary data show that inventories declined sharply in February. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 31.9 mb/d, an increase of 0.3 mb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.7 mb/d, a decline of 0.2 mb/d.