原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)10月份，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子平均為85.06美元/桶，較上月下降10.92美元。紐約商品交易所WTI指數(shù)下跌8.83美元，至平均84.34美元/桶，布倫特指數(shù)下跌10.52美元，至平均88.05美元/桶。布倫特-WTI指數(shù)價(jià)差在10月份進(jìn)一步縮小，至平均3.70美元/桶，為15個(gè)月來(lái)的最低值。2014年和2015年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期與上一份報(bào)告相比分別保持不變，為3.2%和3.6%。經(jīng)合組織預(yù)測(cè)，2014年和2015年分別為1.8%和2.1%，與上一份報(bào)告一致，其中美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)改善，而歐元區(qū)和日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)滯后。2014年和2015年，中國(guó)和印度的數(shù)據(jù)與上一份報(bào)告持平，分別為7.4%和7.2%，印度為5.5%和5.8%，世界石油需求2014年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)仍為105萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2014年第四季度石油總消費(fèi)將達(dá)到今年的峰值，2014年石油總需求為9119萬(wàn)桶/日。2015年，世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)為119萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告一致，預(yù)計(jì)世界石油消費(fèi)總量將達(dá)到9238萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2014年世界石油供應(yīng)將增長(zhǎng)168萬(wàn)桶/日。2015年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)124萬(wàn)桶/日。美國(guó)、加拿大、巴西和中國(guó)甚至將成為明年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的主要貢獻(xiàn)者。據(jù)估計(jì)，2015年歐佩克液化天然氣和非常規(guī)液體的平均日產(chǎn)量為603萬(wàn)桶，高于2014年的583萬(wàn)桶。據(jù)二級(jí)消息人士透露，10月份，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量為3025萬(wàn)桶，從9月份略為上升的3048mb/d下降了0.23mb/d。產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)輕餾分裂縫在大西洋盆地的蔓延范圍縮小，幾個(gè)破裂的催化裂化（FCC）裝置返回，主要在美國(guó)海灣沿岸。盡管中間餾分油市場(chǎng)處于平衡狀態(tài)，但由于桶頂虧損，煉油廠利潤(rùn)率下降。相比之下，亞洲市場(chǎng)在10月份由于低成本利差而失去了一些優(yōu)勢(shì)。油輪市場(chǎng)臟船的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)在各個(gè)級(jí)別上都有所上升，蘇伊士型油輪的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)表現(xiàn)出最強(qiáng)的漲幅。超大型油輪、蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)分別較上月上漲15%、19%和17%。運(yùn)價(jià)上漲主要受季節(jié)性需求、亞洲需求和港口延誤增加的推動(dòng)，9月份商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存增加2120萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到2719萬(wàn)桶。在這一水平上，商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存仍比最新的五年平均水平低810萬(wàn)桶，原油庫(kù)存顯示出約1800萬(wàn)桶的盈余，而產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存則比五年平均水平低2600萬(wàn)桶。從遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)來(lái)看，俄商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存較上月上漲0.1天，截至9月底為58.7天。2014年歐佩克原油供需平衡預(yù)計(jì)為2950萬(wàn)桶/日。2015年，所需石油產(chǎn)量平均為2920萬(wàn)桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket averaged $85.06/b in October, representing a decline of$10.92 from the previous month. Nymex WTI dropped $8.83 to average $84.34/b andICE Brent shed $10.52 to average $88.05/b. The Brent-WTI spread has contractedfurther in October to average $3.70/b, the lowest difference in fifteen months.World EconomyWorld economic growth expectations for 2014 and 2015 remain unchanged from theprevious report at 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively. The OECD forecast stands at 1.8% for2014 and 2.1% for 2015, in line with the previous report, with the US showing acontinued improvement, while the Euro-zone and Japan are lagging in growth. Figuresfor both China and India remain unchanged from the previous report at 7.4% and 7.2%for China and 5.5% and 5.8% for India in 2014 and 2015, respectively.World Oil DemandThe estimate for world oil demand growth in 2014 remains at 1.05 mb/d. Total oilconsumption is expected to reach a peak for the year in 4Q14 resulting in total oildemand of 91.19 mb/d for 2014. For 2015, the forecast for world oil demand growthstands at 1.19 mb/d, in line with the previous report, with total world oil consumptionexpected to reach 92.38 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is estimated to grow by 1.68 mb/d in 2014. In 2015, non-OPECoil supply is projected to grow by 1.24 mb/d. The US, Canada, Brazil and China areseen to be the key contributors to next year’s non-OPEC supply growth. OPEC NGLsand non-conventional liquids are estimated to average 6.03 mb/d in 2015, up from5.83 mb/d in 2014. In October, OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.25 mb/d,according to secondary sources, a decrease of 0.23 mb/d from the slightly upwardlyrevised September figure of 30.48 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsLight distillate crack spreads narrowed in the Atlantic Basin with the return of severaldisrupted fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units, mainly in the US Gulf Coast. Losses atthe top of the barrel resulted in a decline in refinery margins despite a balanced middledistillates market. In contrast, the Asian market lost some ground in October due tolower crack spreads.Tanker MarketSpot freight rates for dirty vessels saw increases across various classes with Suezmaxrates showing the strongest gains. VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax spot freight ratesrose by 15%, 19%, and 17%, respectively, over the previous month. Freight rate gainswere mainly driven by seasonal demand, Asian requirements and increased portdelays.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose by 21.2 mb in September to stand at 2,719 mb. Atthis level, commercial oil stocks were still 8.1 mb below the latest five-year average.Crude stocks showed a surplus of around 18 mb, while product inventories remainedroughly 26 mb below the five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECDcommercial oil stocks rose 0.1 days over the previous month to stand at 58.7 days inSeptember.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.5 mb/d in 2014. In 2015, required OPECcrude is seen averaging 29.2 mb/d.