有關(guān)“石油需求高峰”的討論往往側(cè)重于乘用車，通常是從美國(guó)和歐洲的角度出發(fā)，而忽略了其他市場(chǎng)，例如海運(yùn)，如果石油消費(fèi)整體上達(dá)到拐點(diǎn)，這些市場(chǎng)也需要顯示出需求的減少。這份報(bào)告探討了海運(yùn)燃料市場(chǎng)的前景，根據(jù)估計(jì)，這一利基市場(chǎng)占需求桶的7%。它的重點(diǎn)是新的環(huán)境限制的影響，旨在大幅減少船舶的硫氧化物（SOX）排放從2020年1月起，使他們反對(duì)過(guò)去的創(chuàng)新背景，這已重塑船舶燃料消耗模式，并評(píng)估其可能影響未來(lái)的創(chuàng)新在該行業(yè)。 在新的“全球硫排放上限”之前，船東可選擇的三個(gè)主要合規(guī)方案中，有兩個(gè)安裝了“洗滌器”，用于收集托運(yùn)人當(dāng)前選擇的燃料——高硫燃料油（HSFO）的SOx排放量，從油基燃料轉(zhuǎn)換為液化天然氣（LNG）比第三種更為資本密集，需要更先進(jìn)的規(guī)劃，從HSFO轉(zhuǎn)換為低硫產(chǎn)品，如低硫燃料油（LSFO）或船用天然氣油（MGO）。分析人士估計(jì)，大多數(shù)船運(yùn)商會(huì)選擇使用低硫燃料，但他們擔(dān)心，對(duì)這些燃料的需求上升將與煉油能力限制相抵觸，并導(dǎo)致價(jià)格飆升，可能蔓延到其他市場(chǎng)，尤其是柴油甚至原油。一些分析人士認(rèn)為，延期可能有助于行業(yè)更好地為新規(guī)定做好準(zhǔn)備。本報(bào)告對(duì)這些發(fā)現(xiàn)提出質(zhì)疑。
Discussions of “peak oil demand” tend to focus of passenger vehicles, often from a US and European perspective, and they ignore other markets, such as marine transport, which collectively would also need to show a reduction in demand if oil consumption as a whole were to reach an inflection point. This report explores the outlook for marine bunkers, a niche market that accounts, depending on estimates, for up to 7 percent of the demand barrel. It focuses on the impact of new environmental restrictions that aim to drastically reduce sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships as of January 2020, placing them against the background of past innovations that have been reshaping ships’ fuel consumption patterns and assessing their likely impact on future innovation in the sector. Of the three main compliance options available to ship owners ahead of the new “global sulfur cap,” two—installing “scrubbers” to capture SOx emissions from shippers’ current fuel of choice, high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO), and switching from oil-based bunker fuels to liquefied natural gas (LNG)—are more capital intensive and require more advanced planning than the third, switching from HSFO to lower-sulfur products, such as low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO). Analysts reckon that most shippers will opt to run low-sulfur fuels, but they fear that rising demand for these fuels will bump against refining capacity limits and cause price spikes that might spread to other markets, notably diesel and even crude oil. Some analysts have suggested that delays could help the industry better prepare for the new rules. This report challenges these findings.
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