首頁 > 資料下載 > 新現(xiàn)實、新風險：戰(zhàn)略石油儲備的再思考NEW REALITIES, NEW RISKS: RETHINKING THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE

新現(xiàn)實、新風險：戰(zhàn)略石油儲備的再思考NEW REALITIES, NEW RISKS: RETHINKING THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE

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更新時間：2021-09-17
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現(xiàn)代石油市場的現(xiàn)實使人們對美國緊急石油儲備的必要性產(chǎn)生了疑問。40多年來，美國戰(zhàn)略石油儲備（SPR）一直是美國石油市場和全球供應(yīng)沖擊之間的緩沖區(qū)。作為1973-1974年石油禁運的副產(chǎn)品，SPR誕生于美國原油產(chǎn)量下降、進口上升、石油市場由石油輸出國組織（OPEC）主導(dǎo)的時代。在此期間，隨著石油市場規(guī)模越來越大、越來越深、流動性越來越強、一體化程度越來越高，從而更能夠解決以前會給石油進口國帶來更大痛苦的各種規(guī)模的短缺，石油儲備只被動用了幾次。然而，就美國國家石油供應(yīng)安全而言，或許最大的變化是，過去10年，由于頁巖和其他致密油礦床的水力壓裂，國內(nèi)石油產(chǎn)量激增。因此，美國新能源財富（new energy fortune）引發(fā)了一種觀點，即過去獲得兩黨廣泛支持的SPR可以被出售，以填補支出漏洞，而不會產(chǎn)生重大的能源安全風險。美國國會已經(jīng)通過了幾項措施，通過在未來十年中交錯進行的一系列削減，大幅削減SPR的規(guī)模。關(guān)于SPR是否變得太大或完全無用，或是否應(yīng)該保持完整的新出現(xiàn)的重要討論，促使哥倫比亞大學(xué)國際與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院全球能源政策中心（Center on Global Energy Policy）研究如何進入現(xiàn)代石油市場，乃至更廣泛的全球能源體系，以及美國是否會從修改或取消這一體系中獲益。

The realities of the modern oil market have thrown into question the need for the US emergency oil stockpile. For more than 40 years, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has existed as a buffer between US oil markets and global supply shocks. A byproduct of the 1973–1974 oil embargo, the SPR was born in an age when US crude production was in decline, imports were rising, and the oil market was dominated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Over the intervening years, the reserve was tapped only a handful of times as the oil market has grown much larger, deeper, more liquid, and better integrated and thus more able to address shortfalls of various magnitudes that previously would have caused greater pain for oil-importing countries. In regard to US national oil supply security, however, perhaps the greatest change has been the boom in domestic production over the past decade due to hydraulic fracturing of shale and other tight oil deposits. The new US energy fortune has thus given rise to a view that the SPR—which formerly enjoyed wide bipartisan support—could be sold off to plug spending holes without creating signi?cant energy security risks. The US Congress has already passed several measures to signi?cantly pare down the size of the SPR through a series of drawdowns staggered over the coming decade. The emerging and important discussion over whether the SPR has become too large or altogether useless, or whether it should be kept whole, prompted the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs to research how the SPR ?ts into the modern oil market—and indeed the wider global energy system—and whether the United States would bene?t from modifying or eliminating it.

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