自2000年美國商業(yè)開發(fā)頁巖油以來，頁巖油已經(jīng)促使全球石油市場格局發(fā)生根本性變化。政界人士和行業(yè)專家都稱贊頁巖油是北美實現(xiàn)能源獨立的最佳路徑，頁巖油的生產(chǎn)方法(如水力壓裂)徹底改變了油氣采收率，并以前所未有的速度產(chǎn)生了創(chuàng)紀錄的石油產(chǎn)量。然而，某些預(yù)測—對頁巖儲量增長速度的預(yù)測、油價下跌對頁巖儲量的潛在影響程度、頁巖開發(fā)何時以及如何實現(xiàn)長期盈利的預(yù)測——基本上都沒有抓住問題的關(guān)鍵，頁巖開發(fā)的故事仍然有些神秘。

Since the commercial development of shale oil in the United States in 2000, shale oil has made a fundamental change in the global oil market pattern. Politicians and industry experts have praised shale oil as the best way to achieve energy independence in North America. Shale oil production methods (such as hydraulic fracturing) have completely changed oil and gas recovery and produced record oil production at an unprecedented rate. However, some predictions - the prediction of shale reserves growth rate, the potential impact of oil price decline on shale reserves, and the prediction of when and how shale development will achieve long-term profitability - basically fail to grasp the key to the problem, and the story of shale development is still mysterious.