汽車(chē)、石油、化工和電力的未來(lái)主要的顛覆性力量正在重塑能源、汽車(chē)和化工行業(yè)。交通是這些變化的核心。各種力量匯聚在一起，加速了這一轉(zhuǎn)變的步伐和性質(zhì)，為交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)指出了一個(gè)新的現(xiàn)實(shí)——具有深遠(yuǎn)的影響。要理解這些變化，需要一個(gè)廣闊的視角。目前大多數(shù)分析都采用單一行業(yè)的方法。到目前為止，還沒(méi)有一個(gè)系統(tǒng)范圍內(nèi)的分析，帶來(lái)了一個(gè)深入了解的力量，在每個(gè)行業(yè)-汽車(chē);石油和天然氣;電力;還有化學(xué)物質(zhì)，以及它們之間的相互作用。IHS Markit在每個(gè)行業(yè)中都提供了獨(dú)特的能力和專(zhuān)業(yè)知識(shí)，并且能夠跨行業(yè)查看它們之間的交互。本研究利用我們領(lǐng)先的專(zhuān)業(yè)知識(shí)，以及我們的行業(yè)關(guān)系，邀請(qǐng)和召集來(lái)自這些行業(yè)的關(guān)鍵參與者參加互動(dòng)研討會(huì)，為關(guān)鍵利益相關(guān)者帶來(lái)新的觀點(diǎn)和見(jiàn)解。研究結(jié)果于2017年9月發(fā)布，展示了一個(gè)全新的集成知識(shí)領(lǐng)域和強(qiáng)大而獨(dú)特的場(chǎng)景，為開(kāi)發(fā)和測(cè)試戰(zhàn)略提供了行業(yè)特有的重要影響。這個(gè)知識(shí)體系和基于場(chǎng)景的框架使公司能夠分析在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中占很大比重的能源汽車(chē)化學(xué)合成物所面臨的機(jī)會(huì)、挑戰(zhàn)，甚至是存在的威脅。-對(duì)汽車(chē)行業(yè)而言，新進(jìn)入者和新技術(shù)正開(kāi)始挑戰(zhàn)現(xiàn)有公司及其供應(yīng)商。今天的大型制造商和供應(yīng)商能否在未來(lái)幾年保住自己的位置?20年后誰(shuí)會(huì)是球員?-對(duì)石油和天然氣工業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，影響是至關(guān)重要的。目前，主導(dǎo)個(gè)人交通工具的汽車(chē)占全球成品油需求的三分之一以上。交通運(yùn)輸總量占全球消費(fèi)總量的55%。汽車(chē)/拼車(chē)和自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)等新的交通選擇是否會(huì)加速全球石油消耗的峰值?如果石油放棄其在交通運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域的主導(dǎo)地位，其影響可能會(huì)深刻地重塑能源供應(yīng)和需求。這樣的變化將在全球范圍內(nèi)對(duì)相鄰行業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響。天然氣能在交通運(yùn)輸中發(fā)揮更大的作用嗎?-對(duì)于化學(xué)品，結(jié)果將深刻影響一個(gè)主要市場(chǎng)，影響現(xiàn)有的原料，并對(duì)公司的投資和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)戰(zhàn)略具有重要影響?！陔娏︻I(lǐng)域，交通運(yùn)輸被視為可能的需求增長(zhǎng)新領(lǐng)域。政策、法規(guī)、投資、運(yùn)營(yíng)和客戶(hù)關(guān)系的影響是什么?電池技術(shù)的發(fā)展是否改變了公共事業(yè)與交通運(yùn)輸之間的關(guān)系，創(chuàng)造了新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)動(dòng)力?電動(dòng)汽車(chē)將如何適應(yīng)更加分散的電力行業(yè)的新模式?IHS Markit擁有汽車(chē)、石油、電力和化學(xué)行業(yè)的領(lǐng)先分析師，為未來(lái)的變化提供了無(wú)與倫比的洞察力。我們?cè)谶@些行業(yè)的建模專(zhuān)家提供了全面的分析和數(shù)據(jù)集——一個(gè)高價(jià)值的組合，在這些行業(yè)的未來(lái)將是一個(gè)動(dòng)蕩的時(shí)期，指導(dǎo)決策。該項(xiàng)目由Daniel Yergin主持，他是IHS Markit的副主席，普利策獎(jiǎng)獲得者，也是《The Prize and The Quest》的作者。項(xiàng)目主管為Jim Burkhard、Tom De Vleesschauwer和Tiffany Groode。項(xiàng)目顧問(wèn)有阿圖爾艾里亞、蒂姆阿姆斯特朗、杰米羅森菲爾德和戴夫維特。商業(yè)總監(jiān)是凱特哈丁、比約恩胡特和安東尼帕爾默。項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理是Chelsea Havill。IHS Markit的汽車(chē)、能源和化學(xué)研究團(tuán)隊(duì)的頂級(jí)分析師都參與了這項(xiàng)研究。

The future of cars,  oil, chemicals, and electric power

Major disruptive forces are now reshaping the energy, automotive,  and chemical industries. Transportation is at the nexus of these  changes. Forces are converging to accelerate the pace and nature of  this transformation, pointing to a new reality for transportation—with  profound implications.  A broad perspective is necessary to make sense of these changes.  Most current analysis takes a single-industry approach. Thus far,  there has not been a system-wide analysis that brings to bear a deep  understanding of the forces at work within each industry-automotive;  oil and gas; electric power; and chemicals—and the interplay among  these. IHS Markit uniquely offers the capability and expertise within  each industry and the ability to look across industries and at how  they interact.  This study leverages our leading expertise, as well as our industry  relationships, to engage and convene key participants from across  these industries in interactive workshops to bring new perspectives  and insights from the range of key stakeholders. The results, published  in September 2017, present a new integrated knowledge universe and  powerful, unique scenarios that provide industry–specific implications  essential for developing and testing strategies.  This knowledge universe and scenarios-based framework enables  companies to analyze the opportunities, challenges, and even  existential threats facing the energy-automotive-chemicals complex,  which looms so large in the global economy. ? For the automotive industry, new entrants and technologies are  beginning to challenge incumbent companies and their suppliers.  Will today’s large manufacturers and suppliers hold their positions in  the years ahead? Who will be the players 20 years from now? ? For the oil and gas industry, the implications are critical. The cars  that dominate personal transport currently account for more  than one-third of global refined product demand. Transportation,  altogether, represents fifty-five percent of total world consumption.  Will new mobility options such as car/ride sharing and autonomous  vehicles accelerate the peaking of world oil consumption. If oil cedes  its position as the dominant fuel in transport, the repercussions  could profoundly reshape energy supply and demand. Such a  change would reverberate globally across adjacent industries.  Can natural gas find an expanded role in transportation?? For chemicals, the outcome will deeply impact a major market, affect available feedstocks, and have  critical implications for companies’ investments and competitive strategy. ? For electric power, transportation is seen as a possible new frontier for demand growth. What are the  policy, regulation, investment, operational, and customer relationship ramifications? Does battery  technology evolution change the game in coupling utilities to transportation creating new competition  dynamics? How will electric cars fit into the new paradigms of a more distributed electric power industry? With leading analysts in the automotive, oil, electric power, and chemical sectors, IHS Markit offers  unparalleled insight into the coming changes. Our modeling expertise in these industries delivers  comprehensive analytics and datasets—a high-value combination to guide decision making during what  will be a tumultuous period for the future of these industries. The project is chaired by Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman, Pulitzer Prize winner, and author of The  Prize and The Quest. Project Directors are Jim Burkhard, Tom De Vleesschauwer, and Tiffany Groode. Project  Advisors are Atul Arya, Tim Armstrong, Jamey Rosenfield, and Dave Witte. Commercial Directors are Kate  Hardin, Bjoern Huetter, and Anthony Palmer. Project Manager is Chelsea Havill. Top analysts throughout IHS  Markit’s automotive, energy, and chemical research teams are engaged in the study.