本分析的目的是幫助美國(guó)能源部能源政策和系統(tǒng)分析中心（EPSA）評(píng)估在能源需求、供應(yīng)和分配發(fā)生重大變化的高壓力情景下，能源傳輸、儲(chǔ)存和分配（TS&D）系統(tǒng)的性能，或者其他不確定因素有可能在2030年前大幅改變美國(guó)的能源體系。蘭德公司的研究人員開發(fā)了一個(gè)分析框架和相關(guān)指標(biāo)，用于在一系列不確定因素的影響下，在2030年前檢查美國(guó)技術(shù)與開發(fā)系統(tǒng)的脆弱性、機(jī)遇和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們?cè)u(píng)估了三大科技開發(fā)系統(tǒng)的主要壓力和機(jī)遇：石油和再生石油產(chǎn)品、電力和天然氣。另外，我們還考慮了這些系統(tǒng)對(duì)短期沖擊和破壞的恢復(fù)能力。EPSA要求進(jìn)行這一分析，以支持2015年四年期能源審查（QER）。本卷第1卷的《能源定量寬松政策》重點(diǎn)關(guān)注能源技術(shù)與開發(fā)系統(tǒng)，是一項(xiàng)聯(lián)邦政府倡議，旨在系統(tǒng)地審查能源系統(tǒng)的性能，并探索提高性能的各種方案，以實(shí)現(xiàn)21世紀(jì)的目標(biāo)。

Te purpose of this analysis is to help the U.S. Department of Energy Ofce of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA) assess how energy transmission, storage, and distribution (TS&D) systems might perform under high-stress scenarios in which major shifts in energy demand, supply, or other uncertain factors have the potential to dramatically change the U.S. energy system by 2030. RAND researchers developed an analytical framework and associated metrics for examining vulnerabilities, opportunities, and risks to U.S. TS&D systems through 2030 under a range of uncertainties. We assess major stresses on and opportunities in three major TS&D systems: oil and refned-oil products, electric power, and natural gas. Separately, we also consider the resilience of these systems to short-term shocks and disruptions. EPSA requested this analysis to support the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review (QER). Te QER, which focuses on energy TS&D systems in this frst volume, is a federal government initiative to systematically examine energy system performance and explore options to improve that performance to address 21st-century objectives.