首頁 > 資料下載 > UKERC全球石油消耗證據(jù)審查技術(shù)報告5：估算最終可采資源的方法UKERC Review of Evidence for Global Oil Depletion Technical Report 5

UKERC全球石油消耗證據(jù)審查技術(shù)報告5：估算最終可采資源的方法UKERC Review of Evidence for Global Oil Depletion Technical Report 5

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石油資源最終枯竭的日期在很大程度上與“石油峰值”的爭論無關(guān)。相反，這場辯論的主要焦點(diǎn)是生產(chǎn)率（通常以每天的桶數(shù)衡量）以及為什么這一比率最終必須下降的原因。然而，盡管石油資源的絕對規(guī)模不如潛在開采率重要，但圍繞前者的爭議在石油峰值爭論中發(fā)揮了突出作用。這尤其適用于繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)全球石油供應(yīng)的常規(guī)石油。在其他條件相同的情況下，對常規(guī)石油資源規(guī)模的更大估計將導(dǎo)致對未來全球石油供應(yīng)的更樂觀預(yù)測，反之亦然。因此，對未來全球供應(yīng)的“悲觀者”和“樂觀者”對可能具有經(jīng)濟(jì)可采性的常規(guī)石油資源量的看法往往大相徑庭。

The date of ultimate exhaustion of the oil resource is largely irrelevant to the ?peak oil? debate. Instead, the primary focus of this debate is the rate of production (typically measured in barrels per day) and the reasons why that rate must eventually decline. But while the absolute size of an oil resource is less important than the potential rate of extraction of that resource, disputes over the former nevertheless play a prominent role in the peak oil debate. This is especially the case for conventional oil which continues to dominate global oil supply. Other things being equal, larger estimates of the resource size for conventional oil lead to more optimistic forecasts for future global oil supply – and vice versa. Hence, the ?pessimists? and ?optimists? about future global supply often have very different views on the volume of conventional oil resources that are likely to be economically recoverable.

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