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首頁 > 資料下載 > 對(duì)于減產(chǎn)，石油市場看重歐佩克，但歐佩克看重美國頁巖。For Production Cuts, Oil Market Looks to OPEC, but OPEC looks toward US Sh
對(duì)于減產(chǎn)，石油市場看重歐佩克，但歐佩克看重美國頁巖。For Production Cuts, Oil Market Looks to OPEC, but OPEC looks toward US Sh 對(duì)于減產(chǎn)，石油市場看重歐佩克，但歐佩克看重美國頁巖。For Production Cuts, Oil Market Looks to OPEC, but OPEC looks toward US Sh

對(duì)于減產(chǎn)，石油市場看重歐佩克，但歐佩克看重美國頁巖。For Production Cuts, Oil Market Looks to OPEC, but OPEC looks toward US Sh

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  • 更新時(shí)間：2021-09-17
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隨著布倫特油價(jià)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長乏力的情況下跌至每桶90美元以下的四年低點(diǎn)，市場參與者開始懷疑，石油輸出國組織（歐佩克）何時(shí)會(huì)介入并減產(chǎn)，試圖阻止油價(jià)進(jìn)一步下滑。許多石油市場人士認(rèn)為，歐佩克別無選擇，只能采取行動(dòng)，防止價(jià)格下跌威脅到其預(yù)算穩(wěn)定，而這一水平因國家而異，但對(duì)沙特阿拉伯而言，估計(jì)約為每桶85-90美元。然而，歐佩克（OPEC）領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯，以及科威特和阿聯(lián)酋最近都表示，不急于降低生產(chǎn)水平以支持價(jià)格，1一名沙特官員暗示，平衡市場所需的任何削減都必須由美國生產(chǎn)商承擔(dān)。因此，油價(jià)下跌和沙特的退縮姿態(tài)引發(fā)了關(guān)鍵問題：從美國生產(chǎn)商那里獲取供應(yīng)削減需要什么樣的價(jià)格水平？而這將如何影響美國頁巖油熱潮，近年來頁巖油一直是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的基石？如果要求美國石油公司扮演“搖擺生產(chǎn)商”的角色，這將不是第一次。德州鐵路委員會(huì)（Texas Railway Commission）的官員下令從二戰(zhàn)前到1972年的幾十年內(nèi)改變供應(yīng)，以防止破壞性的價(jià)格波動(dòng)，抵消供應(yīng)中斷，例如在1956年和1967年中斷全球供應(yīng)的阿以沖突期間。然而，目前，如果歐佩克指望美國重新扮演其搖擺不定的生產(chǎn)國角色，其運(yùn)營動(dòng)力將是價(jià)格，而不是政府的菲亞特。部分取決于為了平衡市場必須減少多少供應(yīng)，美國勘探和生產(chǎn)公司“大汗淋漓”削減的過程可能會(huì)被證明是一個(gè)要求很高的過程 對(duì)在有限面積和過度擴(kuò)張的資本上工作的較小的獨(dú)立人士的挑戰(zhàn)。此外，“成功”可能會(huì)引發(fā)人們對(duì)美國頁巖或輕質(zhì)致密油（LTO）繁榮的長期健康狀況的擔(dān)憂，并重新引發(fā)對(duì)原油出口等政策影響的辯論。

As Brent oil prices grind to four-year lows below $90 per barrel amid faltering economic growth, market participants are beginning to wonder when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will step in and cut production in an attempt to halt further slippage. Many in the oil market assume OPEC has little choice but to act to prevent lower prices that threaten their budget stability, a level that varies by country but for Saudi Arabia is estimated to be around $85-90 per barrel. However, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, along with Kuwait and UAE, has recently signaled it is in no hurry to lower production levels to support prices,1 with one Saudi official implying any cuts needed to balance the market must be shouldered by US producers. The oil price drop and stand-back Saudi posture thus raises key questions: What price level would be required to extract supply cuts from US producers? And how would this affect the US shale oil boom, which has been a cornerstone of the nation’s economic growth in recent years? If US oil companies are asked to play the “swing producer” role, it will not be the first time. Officials at the Texas Railroad Commission ordered supply changes for many decades, from before World War Two until 1972, to prevent damaging price swings and offset supply disruptions, such as during the Arab-Israeli conflicts that disrupted global supplies in 1956 and 1967. At present, however, if OPEC looks to the US to reprise its swing producer role, the operating driver will be price not government fiat. Depending partly on how much supply must be reduced to balance the market, the process of “sweating out” cuts from US exploration and production companies could prove to be a demanding challenge for smaller independents working on limited acreage and overstretched capital. Moreover, “success” might raise concerns about the longer-term health of the US shale or light tight oil (LTO) boom and renew debate on policy implications such as crude oil exports.

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