油價(jià)下跌通常被視為美國(guó)和其他石油凈進(jìn)口國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)意外之財(cái)。事實(shí)上，自6月份以來(lái)，近期原油價(jià)格意外下跌近40%，這已轉(zhuǎn)化為常規(guī)泵油價(jià)格下跌近1美元，至12月1日美國(guó)各地平均每加侖油價(jià)下跌2.78美元。 價(jià)格暴跌是由幾個(gè)因素推動(dòng)的，包括大型消費(fèi)國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟，特別是中國(guó)，過(guò)去十年中國(guó)一直是全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的引擎；由于頁(yè)巖油革命，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量驚人增長(zhǎng)，自2008年以來(lái)每天增加了近400萬(wàn)桶；以及利比亞等國(guó)向市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)的部分中斷物資的回流。巴格達(dá)最近與庫(kù)爾德地區(qū)當(dāng)局達(dá)成的增加伊拉克出口的協(xié)議可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步增加石油的市場(chǎng) 上周，石油輸出國(guó)組織（歐佩克）宣布，盡管油價(jià)下跌，同時(shí)依賴石油的經(jīng)濟(jì)體也面臨壓力，但歐佩克將把產(chǎn)量保持在3000萬(wàn)桶/日的穩(wěn)定水平，而不是削減產(chǎn)量，此后油價(jià)暴跌。歐佩克內(nèi)部的許多國(guó)家，如委內(nèi)瑞拉和利比亞，都希望通過(guò)降價(jià)來(lái)提振油價(jià)，但這些國(guó)家不愿意或無(wú)法承擔(dān)大幅降價(jià)的責(zé)任，而是希望其他國(guó)家，特別是歐佩克的最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)沙特阿拉伯，能退一步。沙特王國(guó)是世界上唯一一個(gè)擁有大量閑置產(chǎn)能的國(guó)家，過(guò)去一直扮演著搖擺生產(chǎn)國(guó)的角色，幫助平衡市場(chǎng)。然而，沙特阿拉伯拒絕減產(chǎn)，除非其他歐佩克和非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)也這樣做，這顯然是為了保護(hù)市場(chǎng)份額，并可能迫使美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)削減產(chǎn)量 對(duì)于一些生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)，缺乏減產(chǎn)協(xié)議無(wú)疑是痛苦的。伊朗和委內(nèi)瑞拉有很高的收入需求來(lái)為社會(huì)承諾提供資金。俄羅斯極易受到油價(jià)下跌的影響，尤其是在經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁的影響下，本周盧布暴跌就是一例。其他國(guó)家，如利比亞和伊朗，生產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于歷史水平。 對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，油價(jià)下跌對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響正在出現(xiàn)新的問題。美國(guó)現(xiàn)在是世界上最大的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)和消費(fèi)國(guó)，因此較低的油價(jià)創(chuàng)造了經(jīng)濟(jì)贏家和輸家。這份政策簡(jiǎn)報(bào)探討了油價(jià)大幅下跌對(duì)美國(guó)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。
INTRODUCTION Declines in oil prices are generally seen as an economic windfall for the United States and other net petroleum importers. Indeed, the recent unexpected drop of nearly 40% in crude prices since June has translated to a drop in regular pump prices of nearly $1, to an average of $2.78 per gallon across the United States on December 1. The price slump has been driven by several factors, including economic weakness in large consuming countries, particularly China, which had been the engine of global oil demand growth over the last decade; an astonishing increase in US crude production due to the shale oil revolution that has added nearly 4 million barrels per day since 2008; and the return of some disrupted supplies to the market from countries like Libya. Baghdad’s recent deal with Kurdish regional authorities to increase Iraqi exports could add further barrels to the market.1 Last week, prices plunged after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced it would hold production steady at 30 million b/d rather than cut output, despite the price drop and the concomitant pressure on oil-reliant economies. Many countries within OPEC, such as Venezuela and Libya, wanted a cut to boost prices, but these countries were unwilling or unable to shoulder significant reductions and instead looked for others, especially the group’s top producer Saudi Arabia, to pull back. The Kingdom, the only country in the world with significant spare capacity, has played the role of swing producer in the past to help balance the market. Saudi Arabia, however, refused to cut production unless other OPEC and nonOPEC producers did so as well, in an apparent bid to protect market share and potentially force curtailments from US oil producers.2 The lack of an agreement to reduce output will no doubt be painful for some producers. Iran and Venezuela have high revenue needs to fund social commitments. Russia is extremely vulnerable to falling oil prices, particularly on top of the impact of economic sanctions, as seen in the collapse of the ruble this week. Others, like Libya and Iran, are already producing far below their historic levels. For the United States, new questions are emerging about the economic impact of lower oil prices. The US is now the world’s largest petroleum producer3 and consumer, so lower prices creates both economic winners and losers. This policy brief explores the overall economic impacts of a sharp drop in oil prices for the United States.
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