首頁(yè) > 資料下載 > 低油價(jià)對(duì)墨西哥經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響The Impact of Lower Oil Prices on the Mexican Economy

低油價(jià)對(duì)墨西哥經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響The Impact of Lower Oil Prices on the Mexican Economy

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更新時(shí)間：2021-09-17
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經(jīng)過(guò)三年半的價(jià)格穩(wěn)定和非常低的波動(dòng)，布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均每桶超過(guò)110美元，世界石油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格從7月份的月平均價(jià)格下跌44%，至12月8日，下跌了49美元。大部分下跌發(fā)生在9月1日之后，當(dāng)時(shí)布倫特油價(jià)仍高于每桶100美元。在這個(gè)關(guān)頭，建立油價(jià)在中短期內(nèi)將遵循的軌跡是完全不可能的。市場(chǎng)分析可能會(huì)有啟發(fā)性，但它的一個(gè)副產(chǎn)品，預(yù)測(cè)，卻沒有那么有趣。那些聲稱他們可以大致確定進(jìn)一步減少的程度、下降的速度和低價(jià)格時(shí)期的長(zhǎng)度，要么是欺騙自己，要么是非常愚蠢的，要么是有政治議程。他們?cè)诓聹y(cè)，當(dāng)然沒有從過(guò)去吸取教訓(xùn)。預(yù)測(cè)短期和中期價(jià)格是人類愚蠢行為的又一個(gè)例子。

After three and a half years of price stability and very low volatility, in which Brent spot prices averaged more than $110 a barrel, the world oil benchmark fell 44 percent from the July monthly average to December 8, a drop of $49. Most of the drop took place after September 1, when Brent was still above $100 per barrel. At this juncture, establishing the trajectory that oil prices will follow in the short and mid-term is simply not possible. Market analysis can be enlightening, but one of its by-products, forecasting, is much less interesting. Those that claim that they can approximately determine the extent of further reductions, the rate of decline and the length of the period of low prices are either deluding themselves, very nave or have a political agenda. They are guessing and certainly have not learned from the past. Predicting short- and mid-term prices is one more instance of human folly.

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