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問(wèn)題摘要：重新審視對(duì)俄羅斯的石油制裁ISSUE BRIEF: REVISITING OIL SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA

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更新時(shí)間：2021-09-17
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美國(guó)和歐盟針對(duì)俄羅斯在烏克蘭的活動(dòng)而對(duì)其實(shí)施的制裁，有效地削弱了俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)，并可能勸阻俄羅斯在烏克蘭的進(jìn)一步冒險(xiǎn)主義，但并沒(méi)有迫使莫斯科做出足以糾正危機(jī)的政策改變。盡管最好通過(guò)全面執(zhí)行2015年2月明斯克?；饏f(xié)議來(lái)解決這一局勢(shì)，但可以說(shuō)，之所以沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)這種情況，是因?yàn)槟壳皩?shí)施的制裁沒(méi)有對(duì)莫斯科施加足夠的壓力，美國(guó)和歐盟應(yīng)該尋求采取更多的措施。當(dāng)前制裁努力的最關(guān)鍵因素之一，是限制俄羅斯重要石油部門(mén)未來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)不造成對(duì)全球市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)的破壞性立即削減。未來(lái)的制裁可能會(huì)試圖立即削減石油出口，以期對(duì)俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)造成更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損害，迫使俄羅斯改變政策。本文回顧了俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況以及石油出口在其中所起的作用。報(bào)告根據(jù)俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，評(píng)估了對(duì)俄羅斯石油出口施加制裁壓力的各種情況。

Sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union against Russia in response to its activities in Ukraine have been effective in undermining the Russian economy and potentially dissuading further Russian adventurism in Ukraine, but have not compelled a policy change in Moscow sufficient to correct the crisis. Though it is preferable to resolve the situation through the full implementation of the Minsk cease-fire of February 2015, it could be argued that the reason this has not occurred is that the sanctions currently in place have not applied sufficient pressure on Moscow, and that the United States and the European Union should seek to impose additional measures. One of the most critical elements of the current sanctions attempt is to restrict future growth in the critical Russian oil sector without causing a disruptive, immediate curtailment of supplies to the global market. Future sanctions could attempt to curtail oil exports immediately in an effort to inflict greater economic damage on the Russian economy and force a policy change from Moscow. This paper reviews the state of the Russian economy and the role oil exports play in it. It offers an assessment of various scenarios, based on Russian economic data, for the application of sanctions pressure on Russian oil exports.

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