2014年年中以來全球油價(jià)暴跌以及當(dāng)前的價(jià)格前景，已經(jīng)極大地影響了國(guó)際石油行業(yè)的投資環(huán)境。雖然石油收入的下降已經(jīng)自然地轉(zhuǎn)化為所有主要石油經(jīng)濟(jì)體的痛苦，但對(duì)墨西哥來說，它也使能源改革計(jì)劃復(fù)雜化，因?yàn)槟茉垂就七t了上游石油投資并行使更大的財(cái)政紀(jì)律。第一次招標(biāo)是墨西哥改革努力的一個(gè)重大挫折，因?yàn)樘峁┑氖膫€(gè)淺水勘探區(qū)塊沒有引起太多的興趣，最終只分配了兩個(gè)街區(qū)。第二次淺水開發(fā)區(qū)拍賣取得了較好的效果。考慮到當(dāng)前環(huán)境的困難，墨西哥政府需要時(shí)間來研究從這一經(jīng)驗(yàn)中汲取的教訓(xùn)，并在對(duì)外開放的油田投標(biāo)過程中謹(jǐn)慎地行動(dòng)，以確保它創(chuàng)造最大的長(zhǎng)期效益。對(duì)超稠油和深水耕地的拍賣將比今年迄今所見的小得多的競(jìng)價(jià)輪對(duì)墨西哥更為重要。關(guān)鍵的是，墨西哥政府必須在未來的幾個(gè)月里，將有很高的選擇性，在接下來的幾個(gè)月里投標(biāo)，謹(jǐn)慎地安排和投標(biāo)，仔細(xì)考慮一些延期。許多盈虧平衡價(jià)格高的項(xiàng)目只有在市場(chǎng)重新平衡并開始復(fù)蘇后才有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。政府當(dāng)局和墨西哥國(guó)家石油公司應(yīng)探討擬議的轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)和合同轉(zhuǎn)換的替代行動(dòng)方案的后果，以及對(duì)其碳?xì)浠衔镔Y源的公開招標(biāo)。然而，在任何變化中，政府必須明確和堅(jiān)定地重申其承諾，即改革將繼續(xù)下去。本文對(duì)這些觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了擴(kuò)展，并探討了墨西哥可以將改革過程適應(yīng)當(dāng)前石油行業(yè)的實(shí)際情況，以從石油上游拍賣中獲得最大利益，這將導(dǎo)致與私人石油公司達(dá)成協(xié)議。以及轉(zhuǎn)換現(xiàn)有的綜合勘探和生產(chǎn)服務(wù)合同，并資助公共工程服務(wù)合同，以新的生產(chǎn)分成協(xié)議。
The collapse in global oil prices since mid-2014 and the current price outlook have drastically affected the investment climate in the international oil industry. While the decline in oil revenues has naturally translated into pain for all major oil economies, for Mexico it has also complicated the energy reform plan, as energy companies are postponing upstream oil investments and exercising greater fiscal discipline. The first invitation to bid was a major setback for Mexico’s reform effort, as the fourteen shallow-water exploration blocks on offer did not incite much interest and only two blocks were allocated in the end. The second auction for shallow-water development blocks showed better results. Given the difficulty of the current environment, it is critical that Mexico’s government take time to examine the lessons that can be gleaned from this experience and move carefully in the bidding process for oil fields open to foreign participation to ensure that it creates maximum long-term benefit. The auctions for the extra heavy oil and deepwater acreage will be far more important to Mexico than the much smaller bidding rounds seen so far this year. Critically, the Mexican government must be highly selective in the acreage that it will bid out in the coming months, cautiously sequence and pace tenders, and carefully consider a number of deferrals. Many projects with high break-even prices will only be viable after the market rebalances and begins to recover. Government authorities and Pemex should explore the consequences of alternative courses of action regarding proposed farmouts and contractual conversions, as well as open invitations to bid for their hydrocarbon resources. Amid any changes, however, the government must clearly and firmly reiterate its commitment that the reforms will continue. This paper expands upon these points and examines other ways in which Mexico can adapt the reform process to the current realities of the oil sector to obtain the maximum benefits from the oil upstream auctions that will lead to farmout agreements with private oil companies, as well as the conversion of existing integrated exploration and production service contracts, and financed public works service contracts, to new production sharing agreements.
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