在過去的50年里，資源依賴型地區(qū)的繁榮和最終的蕭條在全世界上演過多次。隨著采掘業(yè)因資源枯竭、來自其他地方的競爭或能源消費的變化而衰退，人們要求提供補貼，以振興采掘業(yè)并維持就業(yè)。與此同時，決策者意識到資源開采行業(yè)的衰退將造成社會和經(jīng)濟困難，開始尋找新的行業(yè)來取代失去的工作崗位，保持經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。 在中國，對空氣污染、碳排放和不斷變化的經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的擔(dān)憂導(dǎo)致了一個轉(zhuǎn)折點。在第十二屆全國人民代表大會上，李克強總理承諾“讓我們的天空再次蔚藍”，強調(diào)了解決空氣污染的計劃（彭博社，2017年）。預(yù)計未來幾十年煤炭消費量將下降。由于對產(chǎn)能過剩的擔(dān)憂日益加劇，在2016年至2020年間，150千兆瓦的燃煤發(fā)電項目被取消或推遲（路透社，2017b）。在以煤炭為主要產(chǎn)業(yè)的山西等煤炭產(chǎn)區(qū)，改革計劃對就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成威脅。 在山西，煤炭工業(yè)改革始于1999，最初是為了提高安全性和效率，隨著非法礦山和小煤礦的關(guān)閉和工業(yè)的鞏固。因此，煤礦的安全和環(huán)境績效得到了改善，煤炭國有企業(yè)規(guī)模不斷擴大。典型的煤礦現(xiàn)在的年產(chǎn)量超過90萬噸。2013年，煤炭價格下跌，使負債累累的煤炭行業(yè)陷入虧損。據(jù)報道，為了避免違約，國有企業(yè)降低了工人的工資，并限制了煤礦的運營時間。此外，該地區(qū)政府還采取措施解決債務(wù)問題，幫助國有企業(yè)渡過危機。目前，在國家層面改革煤炭行業(yè)的雄心水平（政府明確承諾減少煤炭在電力行業(yè)的作用）和省級層面（煤炭仍然是工業(yè)政策的中心）之間存在著緊張關(guān)系。 本報告考察了山西煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型的現(xiàn)狀，并提出了如何管理改革的建議，以確保經(jīng)濟，社會和環(huán)境因素建立在這個過程中。這些建議借鑒了國際經(jīng)驗，特別是英國南威爾士、美國肯塔基州阿巴拉契亞和西班牙阿斯圖里亞斯的案例研究總結(jié)的經(jīng)驗。山西的局勢與本報告中的國際例子有許多相似之處。這些地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟嚴(yán)重依賴煤炭工業(yè)，許多地方機構(gòu)對繼續(xù)將經(jīng)濟重心放在煤炭生產(chǎn)上有著濃厚的興趣。由于經(jīng)濟壓力，包括資源枯竭和缺乏競爭力，這一機構(gòu)面臨著改革的政治壓力，導(dǎo)致：威爾士和阿斯圖里亞斯的國有企業(yè)虧損；環(huán)境壓力，包括與煤炭有關(guān)的污染遺留問題造成的健康問題，特別是在肯塔基州；以及國家政治優(yōu)先事項的變化，例如需要遵守歐盟（EU）對阿斯圖里亞斯國家援助的限制。 國際政策制定者正越來越多地部署政策，限制煤炭的使用，并使以前的產(chǎn)煤地區(qū)重新煥發(fā)活力。例如，歐盟已同意在2018年前逐步取消對煤炭行業(yè)的所有國家援助（歐盟企業(yè)，2010年）；歐洲能源公司承諾在2020年后不修建任何新的燃煤電廠（聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約，2017年）；安大略?。幽么螅┮淹耆蕴济喊l(fā)電（Harris，Beck，&Gerasimchuk，2015）；以及許多其他國家出臺了額外的法規(guī)和稅收，限制煤炭生產(chǎn)和使用。
The boom and eventual bust of resource-dependent regions has played out across the world many times over the last 50 years. As extractive industries go into decline due to resource exhaustion, competition from elsewhere or changing consumption of energy, demands are made for subsidies to revive the industry and maintain jobs. Concurrently, policy-makers, realizing that the decline of a resource extraction industry will cause social and economic hardship, begin the search for new industries to replace lost jobs and maintain economic development. In China, concerns over air pollution, carbon emissions and the changing economic structure have led to a turning point. At the 12th Annual People’s Congress, Prime Minister Li Keqiang pledged to “make our sky blue again,” highlighting plans to tackle air pollution (Bloomberg, 2017). Coal consumption is predicted to fall over the coming decades. Due to growing overcapacity concerns, 150 GW of coal-fired power projects have been cancelled or delayed between 2016 and 2020 (Reuters, 2017b). In coal-producing regions such as Shanxi province, where coal is the major industry, reform plans create a threat to employment and the economy. In Shanxi, coal industry reform started in 1999, initially to improve safety and efficiency, with the closure of illegal and small mines and the consolidation of the industry. As a result, safety and environmental performance of coal mines have improved and coal state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have grown large. Typical coal mines now have the capacity to produce over 900,000 tonnes per year. In 2013 the coal price fell, plunging the indebted coal industry into losses. To avoid defaults, SOEs are reported to have reduced the salaries of workers and restricted the operating hours of the coal mines. In addition, the regional government took steps to address debt and help the SOEs through the crisis. There is currently a tension between the level of ambition to reform the coal industry at the national level, where there is clear government commitment to reduce the role of coal in the electricity sector, and the provincial level, where coal remains at the centre of industrial policy. This report examines the current status of the coal transition in Shanxi and proposes recommendations for how reform can be managed to ensure that economic, social and environmental factors are built into the process. These recommendations draw on international experience, in particular, the experience summarized in case studies from South Wales in the United Kingdom, Appalachian Kentucky in the United States and Asturias in Spain. The situation in Shanxi shares a number of key similarities with the international examples in this report. The economies of these regions were heavily dependent on the coal industry and much of the local establishment had a strong interest in continuing to centre the economy on coal production. This establishment was confronted by political pressure to reform due to economic pressures, including resource exhaustion and a lack of competitiveness, leading to: losses by SOEs in Wales and Asturias; environmental pressures, including health concerns from a legacy of coal-related pollution, in particular in Kentucky; and changes in national political priorities, such as the need to comply with European Union (EU) restrictions on state aid in Asturias. International policy-makers are increasingly deploying policies to restrict the use of coal and to regenerate former coal-producing regions. For example, the EU has agreed to phase out all state aid to the coal industry by 2018 (EU Business, 2010); European energy companies have committed not to build any new coal plants after 2020 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2017); Ontario (Canada) has completely phased out coal-fired power generation (Harris, Beck, & Gerasimchuk, 2015); and many other countries have introduced additional regulations and taxes restricting coal production and use.
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